{"id":196227,"date":"2023-09-13T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-13T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=196227"},"modified":"2023-09-13T13:02:13","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T17:02:13","slug":"cpi-was-a-yawn-what-about-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/cpi-was-a-yawn-what-about-oil\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI Was a Yawn, What About Oil?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Somewhat befitting of the recent lack of volatility, today\u2019s CPI report proved to be a bit of a snoozer.&nbsp; All the components came in as expected except for the month-over-month core reading, which was 0.3% vs. 0.2%.&nbsp; Stocks and bonds both fell in the immediate wake of the number, but both recovered quickly once traders realized that the miss was largely the result of rounding.&nbsp; It was curious that the year-over-year core reading was as expected at 4.3%, so we did a bit of digging.&nbsp; It turns out that the actual monthly rise was 0.27%, which of course rounds up to the reported 0.3%.&nbsp; Not a big deal in the scope of things.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But there is something going on that greatly affects ordinary consumers\u2019 views of inflationary expectations.&nbsp; The price of crude oil has been rising steadily, along with the price of gasoline.&nbsp; True, those are non-core items &#8212; core inflation readings strip out volatile food and energy prices \u2013those have a significant impact upon people\u2019s view about future inflation.&nbsp;&nbsp; The following two charts are not particularly helpful for those who are concerned about rising prices:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-month-candles-rolling-rbob-gasoline-futures\"><strong><em>6-Month Candles, Rolling RBOB Gasoline Futures<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"742\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture3-3.png\" alt=\"6-Month Candles, Rolling RBOB Gasoline Futures\" class=\"wp-image-196231 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture3-3.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture3-3-700x555.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture3-3-300x238.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture3-3-768x609.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/742;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-month-candles-rolling-nymex-crude-oil-futures\"><strong><em>6-Month Candles, Rolling NYMEX Crude Oil Futures<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"742\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture2-5.png\" alt=\"6-Month Candles, Rolling NYMEX Crude Oil Futures\" class=\"wp-image-196230 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture2-5.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture2-5-700x555.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture2-5-300x238.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture2-5-768x609.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/742;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, should we care that a set of non-core prices are zooming higher?&nbsp; Umm, yes.&nbsp; For starters, most people do, in fact, eat and drive.&nbsp; As a result, ordinary folks often view inflation differently than Federal Reserve economists.&nbsp; The Fed is rightly asserting its vigilance about embedded inflationary expectations.&nbsp; Unfortunately, surveys show that inflationary expectations are highly dependent upon prices at the pump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-line-chart-since-2016-monthly-data-university-of-michigan-expected-changes-in-prices-for-1-year-median-conspxmd-yellow-near-right-scale-rolling-rbob-gasoline-futures-xb1-blue-far-right-scale-rolling-nymex-crude-futures-red-left-scale\"><strong><em>Line Chart, Since 2016, Monthly Data: University of Michigan Expected Changes in Prices for 1 Year, Median (CONSPXMD, yellow, near right scale), Rolling RBOB Gasoline Futures (XB1, blue, far right scale), Rolling NYMEX Crude Futures (red, left scale)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"266\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture1-12.png\" alt=\"Line Chart, Since 2016, Monthly Data: University of Michigan Expected Changes in Prices for 1 Year, Median (CONSPXMD, yellow, near right scale), Rolling RBOB Gasoline Futures (XB1, blue, far right scale), Rolling NYMEX Crude Futures (red, left scale)\" class=\"wp-image-196229 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture1-12.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Picture1-12-300x128.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/266;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is quite clear that inflationary expectations, at least the one-year variety measured by the University of Michigan, follow pretty closely with energy prices.&nbsp; If the current rises in oil and gasoline prices persist, this can indeed present a problem for policy makers \u2013 even if they focus primarily on core inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The next UMich readings are due on Friday morning, and I don\u2019t have sufficient knowledge of their methodology to know whether the most recent energy price jumps will be incorporated into this week\u2019s data.&nbsp; But looking ahead, if these higher prices persist \u2013 always a big \u201cif\u201d \u2013 then it might prove premature to declare victory over inflation and assume that lower expectations are built into peoples\u2019 mindsets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Somewhat befitting of the recent lack of volatility, today&#8217;s CPI report proved to be a bit of a snoozer. But there is something going on that greatly affects ordinary consumers&#8217; views of inflationary expectations.  The price of crude oil has been rising steadily, along with the price of gasoline<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":146882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-196227","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-ibkr-market-insights","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CPI Was a Yawn, What About Oil? | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There is something going on that greatly affects ordinary consumers\u2019 views of inflationary expectations. 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