{"id":196049,"date":"2023-09-11T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-11T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=196049"},"modified":"2023-09-11T11:02:56","modified_gmt":"2023-09-11T15:02:56","slug":"weekly-market-recap-september-11-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-september-11-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: September 11, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The trade deficit widened to $65.0B from $63.7B<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The ISM services PMI rose to 54.5 from 52.7<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prelim. consumer sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cResilient\u201d has been the word often associated with the U.S. economy in 2023, and much of this acclaim owes to strength in the U.S. consumer. In the second quarter, household consumption contributed over half of economic growth and is set to add a similar amount in the third quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDP nowcast. A tight labor market and rising real wages have provided support for consumers, but the ice may be thinner than consumption data alone suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By our measures, pandemic excess savings has dwindled to $0.2 trillion from its peak of $2.1 trillion, leading consumers to draw on revolving credit to finance their spending habits. Revolving credit as a share of disposable income may not look too worrying yet (at 6.3% in June compared to 6.5% pre-pandemic), but delinquencies for credit cards and auto loans are starting to rise. Flows into early delinquency status for credit cards rose to their highest level in 10 years in the second quarter and flows into serious delinquency (90+ days) are picking up as well. As such, the lags of monetary tightening may finally be weighing on consumer spending capacity, and with student loan payments restarting at the end of the month, summer\u2019s shopping spree may be followed by a more pennywise back-to-school season. Indeed, consumer confidence in August dropped by nearly 8 points to 106.1, reversing some of its gains in June and July. Investors seem to be heeding the same restraint as well, as skepticism over the potential for a soft landing and renewed upward pressures on energy prices contributed to lower stock prices last week. While the Fed may feel emboldened by a summer of economic resiliency, the clouds of recession have not departed just yet, and the best course of action likely remains one of both caution and patience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1022\" height=\"406\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094023.png\" alt=\"Flow into early delinquencies\" class=\"wp-image-196051 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094023.png 1022w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094023-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094023-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094023-768x305.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1022px) 100vw, 1022px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1022px; aspect-ratio: 1022\/406;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"471\" height=\"90\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094045.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-196052 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094045.png 471w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/Screenshot-2023-09-11-094045-300x57.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 471px) 100vw, 471px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 471px; aspect-ratio: 471\/90;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 11, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., September 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 11, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the Fed may feel emboldened by a summer of economic resiliency, the clouds of recession have not departed just yet, and the best course of action likely remains one of both caution and patience.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":196051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[217,5567,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-196049","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-cpi","14":"tag-delinquencies","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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