{"id":195757,"date":"2023-09-01T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-01T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=195757"},"modified":"2023-09-01T11:10:15","modified_gmt":"2023-09-01T15:10:15","slug":"august-job-creation-tops-forecasts-but-unemployment-ticks-higher-wage-growth-slows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/august-job-creation-tops-forecasts-but-unemployment-ticks-higher-wage-growth-slows\/","title":{"rendered":"August Job Creation Tops Forecasts, But Unemployment Ticks Higher, Wage Growth Slows"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mixed signals as job creation beats expectations, unemployment edges up, and wage growth slows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders lowered rate hike bets, cementing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this month.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The August jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday indicated a mixed picture for the U.S. labor market, as job creation exceeded expectations, but simultaneously, the unemployment rate inched upward and wage growth&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/23\/08\/34151348\/august-jobs-report-set-to-move-markets-a-turning-point-for-fed-policy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">moderated more than expected.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-non-farm-payrolls-exceed-predictions\"><strong>Non-Farm Payrolls Exceed Predictions<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>August\u2019s non-farm payroll growth came in at 187,000, a robust increase from the downwardly revised July figure of 157,000, and surpassing the projected figure of 170,000. While employment creation among American companies is tracking slightly below the six-month average, it remains stronger than what was initially forecasted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The total non farm payroll employment figures for June were adjusted downward by 80,000, shifting from a previously reported increase of 185,000 to 105,000. Likewise, the July figures saw a revision, decreasing by 30,000, from 187,000 to 157,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-unemployment-rate-edges-up\"><strong>Unemployment Rate Edges Up<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The unemployment rate saw an uptick, rising from 3.5% to 3.8%, contrary to expectations of 3.5%. The number of unemployed persons rose by 514,000 to 6.4 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The increase in unemployment, coupled with the reduction in job openings to 8.8 million, marks a general rebalancing trend between demand and supply in the labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-wage-growth-slows\"><strong>Wage Growth Slows<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Wage dynamics are starting to mirror the broader cooling of the U.S. labor market. Average hourly earnings grew by 4.3% year-on-year, falling short of the anticipated 4.4%. On a monthly basis, the rate of increase slowed to 0.2%, a notable deceleration compared to July\u2019s 0.4% and the expected 0.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These figures may further solidify market beliefs that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Reactions: Dollar, US Yield Fall As Rate Hike Fears Fade<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar index, as tracked by the&nbsp;Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF fell 0.3% minutes after the release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yields fell over 7 basis points to 4.79%, at the lowest in more than two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders further adjusted September\u2019s rate predictions, assigning a mere 7% chance to a rate hike, down from 12% a day earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. equity futures rose ahead of the opening bells in New York. The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust is up 0.7% in premarket trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chart-us-dollar-reaction-to-august-jobs-report\"><strong>Chart: US Dollar Reaction To August Jobs Report<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"992\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/DXY_2023-09-01_14-52-04_8828a-1024x992-1.png\" alt=\"Chart: US Dollar Reaction To August Jobs Report\" class=\"wp-image-195759 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/DXY_2023-09-01_14-52-04_8828a-1024x992-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/DXY_2023-09-01_14-52-04_8828a-1024x992-1-700x678.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/DXY_2023-09-01_14-52-04_8828a-1024x992-1-300x291.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/09\/DXY_2023-09-01_14-52-04_8828a-1024x992-1-768x744.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1024px; aspect-ratio: 1024\/992;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted September 1, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/23\/09\/34170413\/august-jobs-report-tops-forecasts-but-unemployment-ticks-higher-wage-growth-slows\">August Job Creation Tops Forecasts, But Unemployment Ticks Higher, Wage Growth Slows<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mixed signals as job creation beats expectations, unemployment edges up, and wage growth slows.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3221,15923,12507],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-195757","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-economic-data","13":"tag-unemployement","14":"tag-wage-growth","15":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>August Job Creation Tops Forecasts, But 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