{"id":195707,"date":"2023-08-31T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=195707"},"modified":"2023-08-31T12:58:37","modified_gmt":"2023-08-31T16:58:37","slug":"checking-in-on-seasonality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/checking-in-on-seasonality\/","title":{"rendered":"Checking in on Seasonality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As the month began, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/beware-the-ides-of-august\/\">we wrote a piece<\/a> noting that over the past 25 years, August has been on average the second worst month for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX).&nbsp; Over that period, the average return for the benchmark index was -0.60%, better only than September\u2019s -0.67%.&nbsp; As of midday today, SPX is down about -1.4% for the month of August.&nbsp; This month\u2019s decline in the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is currently quite similar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, that belies a considerable amount of volatility that occurred during the month.&nbsp; At no point did either benchmark close above its July 31<sup>st<\/sup> level.&nbsp; SPX was down about -4.8% at its worst close, and NDX was about 6.7% lower on that same day.&nbsp; Both of the closing lows occurred on August 18<sup>th<\/sup>, which not coincidentally was a monthly options expiration.&nbsp; (Yes, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/do-monthly-options-expirations-still-matter\/\">monthly expirations still matter<\/a>.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We offered <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/beware-the-ides-of-august\/\">the following explanation<\/a> for why August tends to be a tricky month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cWhy, then, does August tend to be a down month?&nbsp; One theory is that August is the most popular month for vacations in the Northern Hemisphere, with negative implications for liquidity.&nbsp; Thinner markets tend to be more susceptible to negative surprises.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To be fair, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/that-escalated-quickly\/\">as we learned on Tuesday<\/a>, thin markets can be quite susceptible to positive surprises as well!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While seasonality has proven to be a reasonable guide for the total return on SPX this month, it proved incorrect when it came to volatility, at least on a month-over-month basis.&nbsp; We reminded readers that VIX is constructed as the market\u2019s best estimate for volatility over the coming 30 days.&nbsp; Bearing in mind that the 30-day period that follows August is September, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/beware-the-ides-of-august\/\">we noted<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>It would also not be surprising if traders begin looking ahead to the normally difficult September period, thus making them less willing to buy dips or commit new capital.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Thus, it should not be surprising that August has been by far the best month for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) over the past 25 years with an average rise of +10.42%.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At this moment, VIX is almost exactly unchanged for the month.&nbsp; Its current level of 13.66 is only marginally above July\u2019s 13.63 close and would represent a closing low for August if it persists below yesterday\u2019s 13.88.&nbsp; Yet those who were long VIX at the start of the month had ample opportunity to profit.&nbsp; That index touched a high of 18.88 on the 18<sup>th<\/sup>, with closes above 17 on that day and the ones prior and subsequent.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the usual seasonality for September, we are forced to wonder whether traders have become too suddenly sanguine.&nbsp; We are currently just above the year\u2019s closing low for VIX (12.91 on June 22<sup>nd<\/sup>) heading into a typically tricky month for markets.&nbsp; Traders might understandably look past the potential moves that tomorrow\u2019s key a key Payrolls report might spawn and into the three-day weekend that follows, but that belies a potentially inappropriate calmness about the weeks to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As we close out this rocky month, we will <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/beware-the-ides-of-august\/\">reassert our conclusion<\/a> from the start of the month:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Seasonality is important to consider.&nbsp; Too bad it can\u2019t be relied upon.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While seasonality has proven to be a reasonable guide for the total return on SPX this month, it proved incorrect when it came to volatility, at least on a month-over-month basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":21171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1584,1081,910,9700,4109,317,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-195707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-market-trends","tag-nasdaq-100","tag-sp-500","tag-seasonality","tag-stock-market","tag-vix","tag-volatility","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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