{"id":194856,"date":"2023-08-15T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-15T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194856"},"modified":"2023-08-15T12:20:23","modified_gmt":"2023-08-15T16:20:23","slug":"where-should-i-invest-part-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/where-should-i-invest-part-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Where Should I Invest, Part 2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

TLDR:<\/strong> <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Today we look at individual building blocks to create your own portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday we discussed 6 \u201cparagon\u201d portfolios, including extremes across the risk spectrum like being 100% in cash or 100% in stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, we list 7 building blocks for your portfolio, with strong tailwinds at their back in this market phase. This is in preparation for part 3 tomorrow, where we\u2019ll assemble them into a model portfolio for Q4\u201923 and onwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cash offers mouth-watering interest<\/strong>. With a remarkable 5.4% yield, cash is all of a sudden fashionable. We keep cash in our allocations as dry powder, to buy something later at lower valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is the right moment for Treasuries<\/strong>. Mid-cycle is a good moment to load on Treasuries, especially when the Central Bank stops hiking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Play the AI revolution with the \u2018Magnificent Seven\u2019 stocks<\/strong>. 7 stocks have led the market higher in the last 12 months: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. One might be wary of buying stocks at the nadir, but momentum can last deep into the mid-cycle – especially at the onset of new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market is full of Value stocks<\/strong>. Do you reckon the market is expensive? Think again! Rock-bottom bargains abound, from ALB<\/a> to EMN<\/a> to VZ<\/a> the market is full of forlorn stocks with value levels last seen in 2008. Go to TOGGLE\u2019s Explore<\/a> and select the \u201cCheap\u201d filter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil is rich in carry and momentum<\/strong>. How would you like 8%<\/a> carry and strong tailwinds as trade recovers at the end of the inflationary bout?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crypto is the bull market nobody talks about<\/strong>. Once upon a time, there was a bull market in crypto and people were enthused by NFTs. Then AI came, and we moved on. But Crypto has not disappeared, and smart contracts will once again come to the fore in the future. Load on those ETHs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real estate will benefit from the return to the office<\/strong>. Real estate comes from a brutal battering: higher rates and work-from-home policies were a perfect storm to crash prices lower. But we\u2019re past all that, and REITs of all colors might be getting ready to shine again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tomorrow we\u2019ll take these 7 lego blocks and try to assemble them in a coherent portfolio ready for the next phase of the cycle!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What’s happening in the markets?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This section is powered by Open AI connected to TOGGLE AI<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the U.S. Supreme Court granted individual states the authority to establish their own sports betting regulations, the realm of sports betting has rapidly captivated the nation. Dominating this market are FanDuel and DraftKings, together commanding over 70% of the domestic online sports wagering sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An intriguing development has emerged with the entrance of a fresh contender, as renowned sports network ESPN, under the umbrella of Walt Disney ownership, has teamed up with PENN Entertainment to introduce ESPN Bet<\/a>\u2014an exclusive sportsbook tailored for enthusiasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This announcement triggered a response in the financial realm: Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of FanDuel, witnessed a 4.25% decline in stock value, while DraftKings’ stock plummeted by 10.88%, although it made a slight recovery of 1.5% in after-hours trading. In past instances where DraftKings’ stock has experienced a single-day decrease of over 10%, historical trends show a subsequent rise<\/a> of approximately 3.5% within the subsequent week, and potentially a surge of over 10% within the subsequent two weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, the arrival of ESPN, fortified by its substantial marketing influence and extensive ecosystem, could potentially pose challenges for the prominent sports betting giants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aggregated Leading Indicators!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Aggregated<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Subscribe to Pro here<\/a> to receive our pre-market Leading Indicator newsletter and access all Leading Indicators online!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Learn more about the Leading Indicators in the Learn Center<\/a>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Update: Spectrum Brands reports tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Earnings<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The home-essentials brand owner missed earnings last quarter, but still saw an increase in its stock’s price. Click here<\/a> to observe how the stock could perform if it were to miss earnings again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discover how other companies could react post earnings with the help of TOGGLE’s WhatIF Earnings tool<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asset Spotlight: Amex stock drops<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Asset<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

TOGGLE analyzed 11 similar occasions in the past where American Express stock saw a big move down and historically this led to a median increase in stock’s price over the following 1M. Read full insight<\/a>!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

General Interest: Elon\u2019s new excuse<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Zuck's<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Is Elon a pathological liar?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, but no. The line blurs in business, as the Theranos trial made clear – Tim Draper himself defended Elizabeth Holmes and explained that companies need to be visionary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be it as it may, in the case of the match fight Musk is pulling a classic Musk move. First it was his mom, who asked the fight to stop. Now he needs<\/a> surgery before the fight. It appears there will always be an excuse around the corner – so just like Zuck<\/a>, we\u2019re not holding our breath over the fight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that\u2019s not really the point. The truly fantastic aspect that emerges from this story is that Musk\u2019s fluid relation with truth has no impact whatsoever on his admiring hardcore fans – who love him more than ever. From \u201cself-driving cars in 2015\u201d, to \u201cmen on Mars in 2022\u201d, Musk shows us that over-promising works.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, here<\/a>\u2019s a fun reddit thread where people poke fun at Elon and his \u2018fanboys\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted August 10, 2023 – Where should I invest, part 2<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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