{"id":194798,"date":"2023-08-14T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194798"},"modified":"2023-08-21T09:49:11","modified_gmt":"2023-08-21T13:49:11","slug":"weekly-market-recap-august-14-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-august-14-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: August 14, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline\/Core CPI: +0.2%\/+0.2% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/Core CPI: +3.2%\/+4.7% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI: +0.3% m\/m; +0.8% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As of last Friday\u2019s market close, the top 10 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 accounted for 90% of the index\u2019s year-to-date gains. While market breath has been narrow and returns have been highly concentrated, the rally has broadened out relative to May, when the S&amp;P 500\u2019s 10 largest names accounted for all of the year-to-date gains. This decline in concentration can be attributed to surprisingly resilient economic data, which in turn has fueled better than expected profit growth and stock market performance. In fact, with the 2Q23 earnings season coming to a close, profits have surprised to the upside, with particular strength in the consumer sectors, construction, travel and streaming\/gaming. With that being said, the recent broadening has been moderate at best, and mega-cap tech stock valuations remain stretched. The top 10 stocks currently account for over 30% of the index, which is down from the peak levels we saw in April\/May but still extremely high relative to the last 25 years. Importantly, and in contrast to their weight in the index, the earnings contribution of these top 10 stocks is sitting near its pre-COVID level, but well below the pandemic era highs. Despite this misalignment in weights and earnings, the VIX has remained at historically low levels, which has been aided by the market becoming increasingly confident in a soft landing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whether this performance is sustainable hinges on inflation. Any further stickiness in core CPI may push the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance, thereby increasing the odds of a recession. In such a scenario, we would likely see earnings revised lower, leaving the market, where valuations are already stretched, particularly vulnerable. As such, investors should take advantage of historically wide valuation dispersion, and focus on low beta stocks characterized by stable cash flows and solid balance sheets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1004\" height=\"393\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094403.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 versus top 10\" class=\"wp-image-194799 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094403.png 1004w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094403-700x274.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094403-300x117.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094403-768x301.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1004px) 100vw, 1004px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1004px; aspect-ratio: 1004\/393;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"145\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094434.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-194800 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094434.png 500w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-14-094434-300x87.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 500px; aspect-ratio: 500\/145;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted August 14, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of August 14, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors should take advantage of historically wide valuation dispersion, and focus on low beta stocks characterized by stable cash flows and solid balance sheets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":194799,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3221,12555],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-194798","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-economic-data","14":"tag-weekly-market-recap","15":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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