{"id":194789,"date":"2023-08-14T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-14T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194789"},"modified":"2023-08-14T10:03:49","modified_gmt":"2023-08-14T14:03:49","slug":"rate-cuts-on-the-horizon-goldman-sachs-forecasts-q2-2024-reduction-with-current-hawkish-hold-climate-in-mind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/rate-cuts-on-the-horizon-goldman-sachs-forecasts-q2-2024-reduction-with-current-hawkish-hold-climate-in-mind\/","title":{"rendered":"Rate Cuts On The Horizon: Goldman Sachs Forecasts Q2 2024 Reduction With Current Hawkish-Hold Climate In Mind"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Goldman Sachs predicts a rate cut in Q2 2024 as inflation approaches target, even outside a recession.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Goldman&#8217;s optimistic view on the U.S. economy, lower recession odds, and a potential soft landing challenge market expectations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong>&nbsp;economists including&nbsp;<strong>David Mericle<\/strong>&nbsp;and<strong>&nbsp;Jan Hatzius<\/strong>&nbsp;say the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should initiate rate cuts in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/federal-reserve\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">second quarter of 2024.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The central bank\u2019s decision is expected to align with a period when core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve\u2019s favored measure of inflation, drops below 3% year-on-year and falls below 2.5% on a monthly annualized basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The rationale for this action is to restore the funds rate from a restrictive level back to a more neutral stance as inflation approaches the Fed\u2019s target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Goldman Sachs Sees Uncertain Path For Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The specific rate cut cycle being considered by&nbsp;<strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong>&nbsp;involves a gradual reduction of 25 basis points per quarter. However, the pace of these cuts remains uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe FOMC might not cut because inflation might not fall enough or, even if it does, because solid growth, a tight labor market, and a further easing of financial conditions might make cutting seem like an unnecessary risk,\u201d the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The expectation is that the funds rate will eventually stabilize within the range of 3-3.25%, surpassing the FOMC\u2019s median longer-run projection of 2.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economists at Goldman Sachs assert that the neutral rate is currently higher than it was in the previous cycle, and also greater than what is commonly expected. They believe that the increase may be attributed to the growth in fiscal deficits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fed On Hold In September<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term, it is anticipated that the FOMC will abstain from a rate hike during the September meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The final decision, which is likely to be made in November, hinges on whether the core inflation trend has decelerated sufficiently to render an additional hike unnecessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Going forward, Goldman highlights that there is not a pressing urgency for the Fed to normalize rates, leading to a significant risk that the FOMC may opt to maintain the status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs\u2019 views have consistently leaned toward a more hawkish stance this year compared to prevailing market expectations. This divergence arises from a perceived lower likelihood of a recession compared to consensus views, coupled with a relatively high threshold for implementing rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted August 14, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/23\/08\/33831188\/rate-cuts-on-the-horizon-goldman-sachs-forecasts-q2-2024-reduction-with-current-haw\">Rate Cuts On The Horizon: Goldman Sachs Forecasts Q2 2024 Reduction With Current Hawkish-Hold Climate In Mind<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Goldman Sachs predicts a rate cut in Q2 2024 as inflation approaches target, even outside a recession.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,9914,570,4979],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-194789","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-fed","13":"tag-hawkish","14":"tag-inflation","15":"tag-rate-cuts","16":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Rate Cuts On The Horizon: Goldman 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