{"id":194766,"date":"2023-08-11T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-11T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194766"},"modified":"2023-08-11T09:57:49","modified_gmt":"2023-08-11T13:57:49","slug":"budget-deficits-come-into-focus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/budget-deficits-come-into-focus\/","title":{"rendered":"Budget Deficits Come into Focus"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

One question I get asked from time to time is, what are your thoughts on the U.S. budget deficit and its potential impact on Treasuries (UST)<\/a>? Typically, the UST market takes its primary cues from the macro outlook, specifically the economic and inflation<\/a> setting. Of course, an integral part of the puzzle is the prospect for Fed<\/a> monetary policy<\/a> as well. However, there are times when the U.S. government\u2019s finances make headlines, and not just from a debt ceiling<\/a> perspective. Last week was one of those times, so I thought it would be useful to offer some insights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Budget Deficit\/Surplus<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"U.S.<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Without a doubt, one of the more notable deficit-related headlines was that Fitch Ratings agency downgraded the U.S. government\u2019s long-term rating<\/a> a notch to AA+<\/a> from AAA<\/a>. The rationale behind this move was summarized in three points: \u201cthe expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden and the erosion of governance.\u201d The final point has to do with the dysfunction in Washington, D.C., highlighted by repeated episodes of debt ceiling debate.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the record, I do not believe this downgrade will change the global investment community\u2019s view of Treasuries as being the \u201cstore of value\u201d and safe-haven asset of choice in periods of uncertainty and risk-off<\/a> trade. Interestingly, this was the situation following Standard & Poor\u2019s ratings downgrade for Treasuries in 2011. For the record, Moody\u2019s and S&P currently have a stable outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back to the deficit. As the enclosed chart reveals, the budget shortfall following COVID-related issues did get cut by more than half in fiscal year (FY) 2022, but the deficit still remained at historical levels, coming in at just under $1.4 trillion. For FY 2023, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is estimating the red-ink total to increase by about $100 billion to $1.5 trillion. In fact, trillion-dollar deficits appear to be the baseline scenario going forward, unless the federal government implements some significant fiscal restraint measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That brings us to the next part of the equation, funding the trillion-dollar deficits. We had already seen increases in t-bill<\/a> auction sizes following the debt ceiling deal, but the nation\u2019s debt managers took the next step last week and increased nominal coupon auction sizes. According to the announcement, Treasury will be increasing issuance size anywhere from $1 billion to $3 billion per month for each issue through October. Treasury floating rate note auction sizes will be raised by $2 billion per month as well. In addition, the debt managers stated that \u201cfurther gradual increases will likely be necessary in future quarters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the recent run-up in UST yields had its genesis in the macro side of the equation, it appears that the secondary push higher may very well have been due to the aforementioned increase in auction sizes. One thing does seem for sure\u2014UST yields will not be getting relief from supply issues any time soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted August 9, 2023 – Budget Deficits Come into Focus<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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