{"id":194740,"date":"2023-08-10T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-10T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194740"},"modified":"2023-08-10T13:18:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-10T17:18:01","slug":"in-line-is-good-enough-for-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/in-line-is-good-enough-for-today\/","title":{"rendered":"In-Line is Good Enough for Today"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning we received the latest in a never-ending conveyor belt of seemingly make-or-break economic reports when we learned of the July Consumer Price Index data.&nbsp; Kudos to the economists whose consensus was essentially spot-on.&nbsp; The month-over-month and year-over-year headline and core numbers were exactly in line at 0.2% for both of the monthly numbers and 3.2% and 4.7% respectively for the yearly headline and core readings.&nbsp; Cue up the relief rally in equities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, stocks sank into yesterday\u2019s close after improving to nearly unchanged in afternoon trading.&nbsp; That seemed to indicate a real lack of desire for traders to go home long ahead of a much-watched economic report.&nbsp; Futures were higher heading into the 8:30 EDT release as European markets traded mostly higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The reason for the enthusiasm in Europe was because more Chinese travelers will now find it easier to go shopping abroad for Louis Vuitton handbags.&nbsp; OK, there was more than a little snark in that sentence, but the logic is sound.&nbsp; Luxury goods manufacturers, who have heavy weightings Continental stock indices, were bolstered by reports that China would be relaxing restrictions on foreign travel by its citizens.<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>&nbsp; At the same time, the big M&amp;A news today in the US also revolved around high-end apparel as Tapestry (TPR) agreed to buy Capri Holdings (CPRI) for $57\/share, or about $6.7 billion total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Equity futures continued to trend higher into and beyond the 9:30 open.&nbsp; As noted above, some of that rally was attributable to relief that the numbers were in-line.&nbsp; If nothing else, the potential risk from a CPI miss was removed from the market\u2019s mentality, so that was indeed a modest positive.&nbsp; But the leg of the rally that occurred during the first half-hour of cash trading appeared to be more about trying to outrun a potential rally than buyers with conviction about higher prices.&nbsp; This is analogous to the type of <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/two-out-of-three-is-really-good\/\">reflexive trading<\/a> that we noted as being <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/two-out-of-three-is-really-good\/\">prevalent through much of July<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, there was little follow-through, and major equity indices had given back much of their early gains by midday.&nbsp; The \u201ctell\u201d was the bond market.&nbsp; We have noted ad infinitum that bond traders do a better job of interpreting economic news than their counterparts in the stock market.&nbsp; 2- and 10-year yields fell modestly and fluctuated within a narrow range.&nbsp; That was a modest relief rally, not an over-enthusiastic leap.&nbsp; Note the contrast in the chart below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2-day-chart-1-minute-bars-september-futures-nbsp-es-spx-red-green-bars-zn-10-year-blue-line\"><strong><em>2-Day Chart, 1-Minute Bars, September Futures.&nbsp; ES (SPX, red\/green bars), ZN (10-Year, blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"679\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture1-7-1100x679.png\" alt=\"2-Day Chart, 1-Minute Bars, September Futures.\u00a0 ES (SPX, red\/green bars), ZN (10-Year, blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-194742 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture1-7-1100x679.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture1-7-700x432.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture1-7-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture1-7-768x474.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture1-7.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/679;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fixed income futures are rarely as volatile as equity futures, but the lack of follow-through from in the bond market should still be quite evident.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s nothing inherently wrong with chasing a rally.&nbsp; But it\u2019s rarely as easy as many people think.&nbsp; Getting a reality check from a trusted source \u2013 in today\u2019s case, the bond market \u2013 increases your odds of success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a id=\"_edn1\" href=\"#_ednref1\">[i]<\/a> This is not as frivolous as I make it sound.&nbsp; In 2019, my wife and I stayed at the Shilla Hotel in Seoul.&nbsp; They have an enormous stand-alone duty-free shop on the premises, which my wife described as a weird cross between -Bergdorf Goodman and an Atlantic City casino.&nbsp; The products were as high-end as those found at the most exclusive department stores.&nbsp; But there was also a bus lounge where scores of Chinese tourists continually arrived amidst a different set of exhausted, tapped-out tourists who waited for their buses.&nbsp; The sales at that store had to be enormous, and most of the goods were indeed of the European luxury variety.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning we received the latest in a never-ending conveyor belt of seemingly make-or-break economic reports when we learned of the July Consumer Price Index data. Cue up the relief rally in equities<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":191936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2180,217,3221,169],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-194740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-cpi","tag-economic-data","tag-futures","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/cpi-featured-img-scaled-e1686673951816.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=194740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/191936"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=194740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194740"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=194740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}