{"id":194599,"date":"2023-08-08T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194599"},"modified":"2023-08-08T10:02:31","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T14:02:31","slug":"a-reversal-of-rebound-fortune","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-reversal-of-rebound-fortune\/","title":{"rendered":"A Reversal of Rebound Fortune"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The stock market had a good day on Monday, rebounding on the back of blue chip strength, albeit on very light volume. There is still a chance that today could be another good day, but things are not going to look good at the open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 108 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 246 points and are trading 0.7% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reversal of rebound fortune has been triggered by several catalysts with linkages to growth concerns:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>China reported some weak trade data for July that featured a 14.5% year-over-year decline in exports and a 12.4% year-over-year decline in imports. The latter marked the fastest contraction in over two years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>UPS (UPS)<\/strong>&nbsp;disappointed with its FY23 revenue outlook, citing weakening e-commerce demand and an expectation for lower volumes following the improved labor contract. UPS is down 4.1%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Moody&#8217;s downgraded the credit ratings for 10 smaller U.S. banks and put some bigger banks on watch for downgrade, citing concerns about interest rates and asset-liability management risk<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>U.S. exports and imports in June were both lower than exports and imports in May.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>One can see the growth worries in the commodities market. WTI crude futures are down 2.3% to $80.10\/bbl and copper futures are down 2.8% to $3.73\/lb. They are also apparent in the Treasury market and in the strength of the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.74% and the 10-yr note yield is down 10 basis points to 3.98%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.7% to 102.72 with the greenback benefiting largely at the expense of the euro. The euro is on the weaker side of things at the moment following the news that Italy&#8217;s government is imposing a windfall tax (40% levy on excess profits) on Italian banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although Treasuries moved overnight on growth worries, Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) has provided some added support, noting in a speech today that he thinks the Fed may be at a point where it can be patient and hold rates steady, absent any alarming new data between now and mid-September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mr. Harker also asserted, though, that he thinks rates, if they are at a point of holding steady, will need to stay there for a while and that he does not see any likely circumstance for an immediate easing of the policy rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There was some easing in the trade deficit in June. It narrowed to $65.5 billion (Briefing.com consensus -$65.1 billion) from an upwardly revised $68.3 billion (from -$69.0 billion), as exports were $0.3 billion less than May exports and imports were $3.1 billion less than May imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key takeaway from the report is the lack of growth in exports and imports, which is indicative of weaker demand overall at home and abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Drug maker&nbsp;<strong>Eli Lilly (LLY)<\/strong>, however, isn&#8217;t seeing weaker demand. It reported a 28.1% year-over-year increase in revenue for the second quarter in conjunction with better-than-expected earnings results. In turn, Eli Lilly raised its FY23 revenue and EPS guidance above analysts&#8217; consensus estimates. Shares of LLY are up 8.6% in pre-market trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted August 8, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">A reversal of rebound fortune<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is still a chance that today could be another good day, but things are not going to look good at the open.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14020,3598],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-194599","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-market-brief","13":"tag-market-outlook","14":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Reversal of Rebound Fortune | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There is still a chance that today could be another good day, but things are not going to look good at the open.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194599\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Reversal of Rebound Fortune | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There is still a chance that today could be another good day, but things are not going to look good at the open.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-reversal-of-rebound-fortune\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-08T13:45:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-08-08T14:02:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. 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