{"id":194559,"date":"2023-08-07T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-07T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194559"},"modified":"2023-08-07T10:42:56","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T14:42:56","slug":"weekly-market-recap-august-7-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-august-7-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: August 7, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week&#8217;s employment report painted a nuanced picture of the labor market. While job openings and payroll gains came in below expectations, wage growth surprised slightly to the upside. This prompts the question: Will wages revert to their previous easing trend? The answer may hinge on how corporations react to the evolving macroeconomic environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the 2Q23 earnings season draws to a close, a trend emerged \u2013 more than 70% of companies have beaten earnings estimates despite softer revenues. In the face of input cost inflation, companies had been raising prices in an effort to pass along these costs and defend margins. However, the landscape is shifting. As inflation eases further, companies will see pricing power wane, and therefore be forced to embrace layoffs and cost-cutting to protect margins. This dynamic should support softer wage growth and ensure continued moderation in the labor market more broadly. IT has already seen significant moderation in wage growth due to layoffs last year. Other service-related industries have also seen wages cool. However, the impact on goods-producing industries and trade, transport, and utilities could well lag due to still-high job opening rates and more unionization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering Chairman Powell\u2019s recent comment that the FOMC may not need to wait for inflation to return to 2% to cut rates, a less robust environment for wages should allow the Fed to pause, and eventually cut rates next year. Importantly, although the path to a soft landing is increasingly visible, history reminds us that soft landings are rare. What remains certain is that the timeline to add duration has been extended given the recent back-up in rates; investors should take advantage of this, and embrace higher-quality sectors of the fixed income universe as they prepare for lower inflation and softer growth next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>June job openings: 9.58M vs 9.65M expectedJuly nonfarm payrolls: 187K vs 200K expected<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>UofM consumer sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1009\" height=\"403\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100430.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-194560 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100430.png 1009w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100430-700x280.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100430-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100430-768x307.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1009px) 100vw, 1009px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1009px; aspect-ratio: 1009\/403;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"466\" height=\"49\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100603.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-194561 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100603.png 466w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Screenshot-2023-08-07-100603-300x32.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 466px) 100vw, 466px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 466px; aspect-ratio: 466\/49;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted August 7, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of August 7, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While job openings and payroll gains came in below expectations, wage growth surprised slightly to the upside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":194560,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3221,2298,2053],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-194559","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-economic-data","14":"tag-market-recap","15":"tag-wages","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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