{"id":194527,"date":"2023-08-04T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194527"},"modified":"2023-08-07T11:01:01","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T15:01:01","slug":"its-better-when-growth-stocks-um-grow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-better-when-growth-stocks-um-grow\/","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s Better When Growth Stocks, um, Grow&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This morning held the possibility to bring a major market event.&nbsp; Earnings from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) after yesterday\u2019s close and the release of July Payrolls data before the open all had the potential to move markets dramatically.&nbsp; As it turns out, AMZN\u2019s post-earnings rise and AAPL\u2019s decline largely balance out, while the payrolls report had a mix of positives and negatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In theory, this should make for a quiet summer Friday.&nbsp; Certainly there are no major fireworks, at least by midday, but there are several story lines that should continue to be played out over the course of the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">AAPL is the latest in a line of high-flying companies that reported EPS above analyst consensus but nonetheless sank after its earnings report.&nbsp; AMZN, on the other hand, reacted similar to Meta Platforms (META) when it jumped last week after beating on a wide range of metrics.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/options-market-expectations-for-apple-amazon-and-payrolls\/\">We noted yesterday<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>There is a reasonable likelihood that the market could react similarly to MSFT, TSLA, NFLX, etc., where EPS beat estimates, but traders focused on other items.&nbsp; Handset sales for AAPL and cloud computing for AMZN are but two possibilities.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the case of AAPL, it wasn\u2019t just handset sales \u2013 it was sales overall.&nbsp; Last quarter was the third straight when its revenues fell.&nbsp; Worse yet, they guided that next quarter could bring something similar.&nbsp; While it is possible to grow earnings even if sales fall in a given quarter, that is not a feat that can be repeated indefinitely.&nbsp; Coming into earnings, we showed that AAPL\u2019s P\/E was 32.6 and its estimated P\/E was 32.06.&nbsp; That implied very modest expectations for earnings growth over the coming year.&nbsp; Yet its PEG ratio was 2.47.&nbsp; Taken as a whole, the market was willing to pay a significant premium for a company with solid earnings and cash flows, but not a lot of immediate growth.&nbsp; Even after today\u2019s 3% selloff, those numbers have only shrunk modestly.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Contrast that with AMZN.&nbsp; Sales rose and margins improved in both its retail and cloud computing (AWS) businesses.&nbsp; We showed that AMZN\u2019s price was already incorporating the potential for serious growth, with a trailing P\/E of 138.43 and an estimated P\/E of 80.86.&nbsp; After today\u2019s 10% bounce, those numbers have improved to 97.97 and 75.23.&nbsp; It is likely that the estimated P\/E will improve further as analysts upgrade their earnings expectations for the coming quarters. AMZN had a high hurdle to clear and was rewarded for doing so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When we look back at the results for earnings season so far, we see the usual majority of companies beating EPS expectations.&nbsp; Quite frankly, that\u2019s not news.&nbsp; It is typical for that to occur, and I\u2019ve frequently posited that US CEOs are as skillful at managing their analysts\u2019 expectations as they are their businesses.&nbsp; It is quite possible that investors have begun to recognize that simply beating a consensus estimate is no longer sufficient \u2013 especially when investors are paying premia for growth that can be hard to come by.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moving on to the July Payrolls report, there was something for everyone to either like or dislike.&nbsp; The headline Nonfarm Payrolls report showed job gains of 187,000, which was below the 200,000 median estimate of economists.&nbsp; We also saw a -49,000 cumulative adjustment to the prior two months\u2019 reports. For those who see a cooling but not catastrophic labor market as a precursor to both a more accommodative Federal Reserve and a soft landing for the economy, this was welcome news.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But other data painted a more difficult picture.&nbsp; The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% when it was expected to be unchanged from last month\u2019s 3.6%.&nbsp; It was not the result of people leaving the labor force since the participation rate remained at 62.6%.&nbsp; Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis.&nbsp; That matched last month\u2019s 0.4% and was above the 0.3% estimate.&nbsp; On an annualized basis, that is a hefty 4.8%.&nbsp; Many economists prefer to annualize the last three months data, which instead annualizes to 4.4%, which is indeed the year-over-year change.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, wage inflation is not improving.&nbsp; That\u2019s fine for workers, but not for a central bank that is committed to fighting inflation.&nbsp; The bump in wages may not prove to be enough to justify a Fed rate hike, but there is also no reason for them to change their rhetoric about the potential for higher rates, nor is there a reason for them to back off their program of quantitative tightening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Taken together, the bond market reacted positively to the labor reports.&nbsp; Yields are lower across the curve.&nbsp; Yet they are simply off yesterday\u2019s highs and not back to last week\u2019s levels.&nbsp; We have a relief rally in stocks and bonds, but as of midday we have not come close to recouping this week\u2019s damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-us-treasury-yield-curve-today-green-line-middle-yesterday-orange-top-last-week-green-dashes-bottom\"><strong><em>US Treasury Yield Curve, Today (green line, middle), Yesterday (orange, top), Last Week (green dashes, bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"434\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture2-1.png\" alt=\"US Treasury Yield Curve, Today (green line, middle), Yesterday (orange, top), Last Week (green dashes, bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-194529 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture2-1.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture2-1-700x325.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture2-1-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/Picture2-1-768x356.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/434;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning held the possibility to bring a major market event. Earnings from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) after yesterday&#8217;s close and the release of July Payrolls data before the open all had the potential to move markets dramatically.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":190956,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[44],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-194527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-stocks","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>It&#8217;s Better When Growth Stocks, um, Grow&#8230;<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This morning held the possibility to bring a major market event. 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