{"id":194492,"date":"2023-08-04T02:38:21","date_gmt":"2023-08-04T06:38:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194492"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:12:57","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:12:57","slug":"chart-advisor-overhead-supply-halts-the-advance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-overhead-supply-halts-the-advance\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Overhead Supply Halts the Advance"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By J.C. Parets<\/strong><\/a> & All Star Charts<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Overhead Supply Halts the Advance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Defensive Stocks Catch a Bid<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Commodities Over Bonds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Will Rising Yields Crush Gold?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter, which both sells its research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Overhead Supply Halts the Advance<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The rally<\/a> is running out of steam as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ<\/a>) is coming off its best first half in history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As you can see, an overwhelming amount of selling pressure came in this week, rejecting prices in the $380 area:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This level represents a former high from mid-2021, making it our line in the sand for the QQQ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If there is a place for growth to digest recent gains, this is it. We should not be surprised to see some corrective action in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We continue to monitor the intermarket landscape and the recent base breakouts<\/a> among tech names for insight into the extent of the potential coming correction<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For now, it\u2019s nothing more than a welcomed pause after an explosive rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Defensive Stocks Catch a Bid<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When the overall market is under pressure, defensive groups<\/a> tend to outperform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As can be seen, the relative trends of Low Volatility (SPLV<\/a>) vs. the S&P 500 (SPY<\/a>) and Consumer Staples (XLP<\/a>) vs. the S&P 500 (SPY) are testing key former lows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If the most defensive stocks are going to start outperforming, this could be the spot to do it. If this is the case and these ratios rebound, U.S. stock indexes<\/a> will likely face stiff headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Remember, price doesn\u2019t move in a straight line. The major indexes are due for a correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As long as rotation<\/a> continues to move down the market cap<\/a> scale and into cyclical value-oriented stocks, our outlook will remain constructive despite strength from defensive sectors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Commodities Over Bonds<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We consider the commodity<\/a> versus bonds<\/a> ratio one of the critical, and perhaps the most important, high-level intermarket ratios in our deck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason: It reveals the inflationary backdrop that colors the entire market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notice that the commodity-bond ratio peaked in 2008 during the Global Financial Crisis<\/a>, trending lower into the COVID sell-off:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Disinflation<\/a> defined the decade as growth over value became a rule of thumb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that trend has reversed over the past few years. The ratio violated a decade-plus downtrend line, ripping higher into a logical level of supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After almost 18 months of consolidation<\/a>, it appears that commodities are geared up to outperform as rates rise and inflation persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019re monitoring \u201cold economy\u201d stocks or the cyclical sectors for relative strength<\/a> as long as this secular trend remains intact\u2014which could be well over a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Will Rising Yields Crush Gold<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nominal and real yields<\/a> are rising. And the latter clearly disapproves of the next leg higher in gold. But does it matter?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under most circumstances, we would lean toward yes, it does! But it might not be that straightforward if gold responds to anything like it did in the early 2000s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out the overlay chart of the U.S. 10-year<\/a> real yield and gold futures<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Notice the divergence<\/a> between the 10-year real yield and gold at the beginning of the century (and the early innings of the previous commodity supercycle).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold rose more than 75% from the spring of 2004 to the summer of 2007 as the 10-year real rate climbed 150 basis points (bps)<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rising real rates didn\u2019t pose much of a problem for gold bugs then. And the 300-bps rise in the 10-year over the past 18 months has acted more like a Debbie Downer than an angry bouncer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold can rip higher in the face of increasing real rates. It\u2019s in the historical record for all to see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nevertheless, gold bugs must overcome another major obstacle\u2014a rising U.S. dollar<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 3d August 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The rally is running out of steam as the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is coming off its best first half in 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