{"id":194428,"date":"2023-08-03T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194428"},"modified":"2023-08-07T11:01:32","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T15:01:32","slug":"still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party\/","title":{"rendered":"Still Want to Be Late to the Duration Party?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Throughout the course of the current Federal Reserve rate hike cycle, and the attendant increase in the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.com\/blog\/glossary#treasury%20yield\">U.S. Treasury (UST) 10-Year yield<\/a>, I periodically get asked whether it is time to go long on duration. My answer has been a very consistent one: I\u2019d rather be late than early to the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.com\/blog\/glossary#duration\">duration<\/a>&nbsp;party. With the UST 10-Year yield once again passing the 4% threshold, I thought it would be a good idea to revisit this topic. And, alas, my answer still hasn\u2019t changed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-u-s-treasury-10-year-yield\"><strong>U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"761\" height=\"407\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/figure-1.jpg\" alt=\"U.S. Treasury 10-Year Yield\" class=\"wp-image-194429 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/figure-1.jpg 761w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/figure-1-700x374.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/figure-1-300x160.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 761px) 100vw, 761px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 761px; aspect-ratio: 761\/407;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In answering the duration question, I think it is useful to show the pattern of the UST 10-Year yield since it hit its most recent peak of roughly 4.25% (4.33% in intra-day trading) in October of last year. Yes, after reaching this high-water mark in the fall, the 10-Year yield did decline in a rather startling fashion, falling by 80&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.com\/blog\/glossary#basis%20point\">basis points (bps)<\/a>&nbsp;to a little over 3.40% in December. However, just as quickly, this decline was reversed and another upward move occurred heading into the year-end. In fact, if you look closely at the enclosed graph, it becomes clear how this \u201cup and down, then up again\u201d trend has played out over the last nine months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most recent episode occurred beginning in early March. As the reader will recall, Fed Chairman Powell gave rather hawkish testimony to Congress in early March and yields all along the Treasury yield curve rose considerably as a result. In fact, the UST 2-Year yield rose above 5% and the 10-Year yield eclipsed the 4% mark yet again. Then the regional bank turmoil hit, and all bets were off as UST yields plummeted. In fact, the 10-Year ultimately fell to 3.31% in early April, another sizeable decline of 70 bps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, let\u2019s fast-forward to the present, where that 70-bps plunge in yield has once again been completely reversed. Indeed, as of this writing, the UST 10-Year yield has retraced all the way back over 4% one more time, posting a 4.01% reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-conclusion\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.com\/blog\/glossary#federal%20reserve\">Fed<\/a>&nbsp;in \u201chigher for longer\u201d mode, a reasonable outcome for the 10-Year could be to remain in a range-bound pattern, with the yield skewed toward the upper limit. In fact, another run at the aforementioned high point of 4.25% should not be ruled out either. This type of trading pattern would not be conducive to going long on duration in a bond portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In addition, the historical inversion of the Treasury yield curve offers no incentive, or urgency, to take on such positioning. Against this backdrop, investors should consider Treasury floating rate notes, which provide income without the volatility that has been witnessed in the 10-Year sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted August 2, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wisdomtree.com\/investments\/blog\/2023\/08\/02\/still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party\">Still Want to Be Late to the Duration Party?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Important Risks Related to this ArticleThere are risks associated with investing, including the possible loss of principal. Securities with floating rates can be less sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with fixed interest rates, but may decline in value. Fixed income securities will normally decline in value as interest rates rise. The value of an investment in the Fund may change quickly and without warning in response to issuer or counterparty defaults and changes in the credit ratings of the Fund\u2019s portfolio investments. Due to the investment strategy of this Fund it may make higher capital gain distributions than other ETFs. Please read the Fund\u2019s prospectus for specific details regarding the Fund\u2019s risk profile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Throughout the course of the current Fed rate hike cycle, and the attendant increase in the U.S. Treasury 10-Year yield, investors periodically ask whether it is time to go long on duration. Against this backdrop, Kevin Flanagan explains why it\u2019s better to be late than early to the duration party.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[15,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,15687,295],"contributors-categories":[13638],"class_list":["post-194428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-fixed-income","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-fed","tag-fixed-income-ust","tag-yields","contributors-categories-wisdomtree-u-s"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Still Want to Be Late to the Duration Party?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Throughout the course of the current Fed rate hike cycle, and the attendant increase in the U.S. Treasury 10-Year yield, investors periodically ask...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194428\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Still Want to Be Late to the Duration Party? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Throughout the course of the current Fed rate hike cycle, and the attendant increase in the U.S. Treasury 10-Year yield, investors periodically ask whether it is time to go long on duration.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-08-03T15:15:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-08-07T15:01:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/08\/figure-1.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kevin Flanagan\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kevin Flanagan\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Kevin Flanagan\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/c8d79eb99aaaf45fa5595332161d6b3e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Still Want to Be Late to the Duration Party?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2023-08-03T15:15:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2023-08-07T15:01:32+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 587,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/fixed-income\\\/still-want-to-be-late-to-the-duration-party\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2023\\\/08\\\/figure-1.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"Fed\",\n\t                \"fixed income. 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