{"id":194284,"date":"2023-08-01T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194284"},"modified":"2023-08-07T11:39:53","modified_gmt":"2023-08-07T15:39:53","slug":"beware-the-ides-of-august","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/beware-the-ides-of-august\/","title":{"rendered":"Beware the Ides of August?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Seasonality is an important but unpredictable factor in stock market behavior.&nbsp;As we have noted multiple times &#8211; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/two-out-of-three-is-really-good\/\">most recently yesterday<\/a> \u2013 traders love to find consistent patterns.&nbsp;It would be terrific if the calendar could reliably provide those patterns.&nbsp;Unfortunately, while it is easy to see which months tend to offer better stock market performance, it is very difficult to rely on long-term averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One thing that is clear is that August tends to be among the worst months for US equity investors.\u00a0 Over the past 25 years, only 3 of the 12 months have averaged losses for the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) during that period: February (-0.26%), August (-0.60%), and September (-0.67%).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The idea that stocks go up more often than not should not be surprising.&nbsp; It\u2019s a well-known fact that stocks have tended to go up over time, so it stands to reason that more months would be positive than negative.&nbsp; It is also well-known among traders that we have seen various hiccups over the years in both February (\u201cVolmageddon, for one) and early autumn.&nbsp; Although some of the worst drops have occurred in October, so have some significant bottoms and turnarounds.&nbsp; Last October featured both.&nbsp; That duality means that October is one of the positive months at +1.55%.&nbsp; (April is best at +2.53%, by the way)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why, then, does August tend to be a down month?&nbsp; One theory is that August is the most popular month for vacations in the Northern Hemisphere, with negative implications for liquidity.&nbsp; Thinner markets tend to be more susceptible to negative surprises.&nbsp; It would also not be surprising if traders begin looking ahead to the normally difficult September period, thus making them less willing to buy dips or commit new capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, it should not be surprising that August has been by far the best month for the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) over the past 25 years with an average rise of +10.42%.&nbsp; Unsurprisingly, September (+6.95%) and February (+4.38%) show the next biggest gains.&nbsp; Over time, it has been advantageous to own volatility in late summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, VIX is constructed to provide the market\u2019s best estimate of volatility over the ensuing 30 days.&nbsp; If both August and September are typically nervous months for equity markets, then it is quite sensible for markets to price in higher volatility assumptions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based upon those long-term averages, investors would be prudent to reduce their equity exposures and increase their hedges over the coming days.&nbsp; But it\u2019s not that simple.&nbsp; SPX rose 14 times in the last 25 Augusts, while VIX fell in 10 of them.&nbsp; In other words, stocks actually rose more often than not in August.&nbsp;&nbsp; Although VIX rose more often than not, it is hardly perfect.&nbsp; The difference can be explained by the \u201clook-ahead\u201d nature of VIX.&nbsp; Traders likely had begun to anticipate higher volatility in the coming 30 days even before stocks began to sink.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Seasonality is important to consider.&nbsp; Too bad it can\u2019t be relied upon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Seasonality is an important but unpredictable factor in stock market behavior.\u00a0As we have noted multiple times &#8211; most 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