{"id":194257,"date":"2023-08-01T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-08-01T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194257"},"modified":"2023-08-01T09:52:37","modified_gmt":"2023-08-01T13:52:37","slug":"thoughts-from-a-road-trip-musings-on-parenting-central-banks-housing-and-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/thoughts-from-a-road-trip-musings-on-parenting-central-banks-housing-and-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"Thoughts from a Road Trip: Musings on Parenting, Central Banks, Housing, and Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-central-banks\">Central banks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economies of the US, eurozone and Japan are all in different places, which means central banks must tailor their policies accordingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-earnings-season\">Earnings season<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The overall statistics have been relatively good so far, but it\u2019s been on diminished expectations, and with some high profile misses.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-golden-handcuffs\">\u201cGolden handcuffs\u201d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">High mortgage rates are one of the reasons why there are structural obstacles to having adequate US housing supply on the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A few months ago, I was lucky enough to be invited to speak at a conference in Quebec City, Canada, set to occur last week. Unfortunately, my appearance at the conference (and that of many attendees) was threatened by aberrant weather and a cancelled flight. So to ensure I made it, I decided to drive to and from Canada. A jumble of thoughts ran through my head on that eight-hour journey each way. (That\u2019s a lot of time to sit and think!) I organized these random thoughts as best I could into a variety of miscellaneous observations \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-parenting-multiple-children-can-help-one-understand-central-bank-policy\">Parenting multiple children can help one understand central bank policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a mom of three, I can say with certainty that children from the same gene pool can be very different. My children often complain that I don\u2019t treat them equally, and they\u2019re right. I treat them fairly based on their strengths, weaknesses, and needs. For example, we require my daughter to have two jobs \u2014 even though she\u2019s a talented athlete with a busy social life. Why? Because she likes to spend a lot and needs to learn the value of a dollar. (Side benefit: Every minute she\u2019s working is a minute that she cannot shop.) Conversely, our older son doesn\u2019t have a paying job this summer. He\u2019s taking classes to ensure he meets all his requirements for college graduation next spring \u2014 since it\u2019s a priority that he graduate on time \u2014 and he has an unpaid internship in his field of interest. They\u2019re definitely not treated equally because each one needs different \u201ctreatment\u201d and support in order to be successful.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s no different with economies. Take the United States. It seems clear from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference last week that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is at or near the end of its rate hike cycle. And it should be \u2014 the fed funds rate is now at a 22-year high, and inflation continues to move in the right direction. That was confirmed on Friday, with reports that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed\u2019s preferred measure of inflation, showed more progress in June:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>June US PCE was 0.2% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, both in line with expectations.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/central-bank-policy-differs.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core PCE&nbsp;was 0.2% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year, slightly better than expected and at a two-year low.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/central-bank-policy-differs.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We also saw a tempering of wage growth, although still elevated, in the US Employment Cost Index, also released last Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Having said that, the Fed seems increasingly comfortable with the idea that the US will avoid a recession and experience a soft landing, which gives it a certain level of hubris about being able to continue rate hikes. The first estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product growth, which was well above expectations, underscores that view.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/central-bank-policy-differs.html#2\">2<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;At the expense of sounding like a broken record, I\u2019ll say it again: That view can be dangerous given the significant policy lag between implementation and impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-european-central-bank-must-tread-carefully\">The European Central Bank must tread carefully<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The eurozone is in a different place than the US, with its economy showing less resilience recently. The flash eurozone composite Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index (PMI) is at an eight-month low, although services PMI remains in expansion territory. Manufacturing continues to deteriorate.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/central-bank-policy-differs.html#3\">3<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;The European Central Bank (ECB) must tread carefully, and future rate hikes are not a foregone conclusion, which came across in its meeting last week. ECB President Christine Lagarde even altered her carefully chosen words, eschewing the phrase she used in June, \u201c\u2026the key ECB interest rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive&#8230;\u201d in favor of \u201c\u2026the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels&#8230;\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bank-of-japan-makes-a-surprise-policy-tweak\">Bank of Japan makes a surprise policy tweak<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And then there\u2019s Japan. Many had wondered how long the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could go without further alterations to its yield curve control policy given rising inflation, but it came as something of a surprise when alterations were announced last week that would allow for more flexibility in letting interest rates rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s important to note that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned during the press conference that 1) he did not anticipate that the 10-year bond yield would rise to 1% since the 1% level is just considered to be an upper limit, and 2) that the BOJ is expected to continue to control the yield curve (and control the 10-year bond yield) by adjusting bond-purchase operations and conducting fixed-rate purchase operations. The expectation was that the market will observe the extent to which the BOJ will allow the 10-year bond yield to rise, and under what specific conditions, while monitoring the status of actual operations. This is already happening, as the Bank of Japan just announced \u201cunscheduled\u201d Japanese government bond purchases of 300 billion yen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are significant investment implications arising from the BOJ\u2019s policy tweak. The Japanese yen has been much weaker than usual (on a trade-weighted basis) because the BOJ is one of the few central banks that hasn\u2019t tightened so far. A move toward tightening could see the yen rise sharply. This would have implications for stocks, given that yen weakness has been at least partially responsible for the strong performance by Japanese stocks earlier this year. Therefore, yen appreciation would likely lead to underperformance by Japanese stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chinese-stocks-experience-a-mini-rally\">Chinese stocks experience a mini-rally<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I recently mentioned that Chinese stocks might get a significant boost from the potential for more stimulus. And we saw a mini-rally in Chinese equities in the past week, which continued as Chinese economic policymakers released plans for consumption-related stimulus. Some of the policies are reminiscent of US policies in the face of the Global Financial Crisis such as \u201ccash for clunkers\u201d and subsidies for energy efficient home renovations. Those US policies helped spread what we called \u201cgreen shoots,\u201d and I think these policies could certainly be positively impactful in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-corporate-earnings-vary-in-a-lopsided-economy\">Corporate earnings vary in a lopsided economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019re in the heart of earnings season, and while the overall statistics have been relatively good, it\u2019s been on diminished expectations. And that\u2019s why I don\u2019t think many stocks have gotten much of a pop when they\u2019ve produced a positive earnings surprise. What\u2019s more, there have been some high profile misses this earnings season. I expect this environment to continue. As we know, developed economies are rather lopsided, with some sectors and industries faring better than others, and some business models in the same industry faring better than others. I enjoyed hearing that one large fast food chain benefited from a viral campaign centered around one of its mascots. Creativity and cleverness can do wonders driving sales, especially for consumer-driven businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-high-mortgage-rates-take-the-suspense-out-of-reality-shows\">High mortgage rates take the suspense out of reality shows<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In looking at last week\u2019s US housing data, especially the Case-Shiller home price index actually rising for the fourth month in a row, it made me wonder if one of my favorite TV shows, \u201cLove It or List It,\u201d will be able to continue in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For those of you not familiar with the format, it\u2019s a show in which homeowners who are unhappy with their homes pursue two simultaneous paths: their house is renovated to better fit their needs, and at the same time they are shown other homes that might be a better fit. At the end of the show, they\u2019re asked if they are going to love their renovated home and stay put, or if they will list their house and buy one of the homes that was shown to them. It just occurred to me that in the US, with mortgage rates so high, homeowners will be much more motivated to love it rather than list it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">High mortgage rates act as a set of \u201cgolden handcuffs\u201d created by the Fed, which is one of the reasons why there are structural obstacles to having adequate housing supply on the market (which in turn causes prices to rise). So maybe the show will have to scout new filming locations where those golden handcuffs don\u2019t exist\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-quote-of-the-week\">Quote of the week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week at the FOMC press conference, Fed Chair Jay Powell made it clear that the Fed will be data dependent going forward, saying that it will have eight weeks of data to assess before it meets again: \u201cWe\u2019ll be comfortable cutting rates when we\u2019re comfortable cutting rates, and that won\u2019t be this year\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I really wish the press conference room had a DJ who could play songs to sync with the Fed\u2019s messaging. That would have been an opportunity to queue the chorus of an old Kenny Rogers country song: \u201cYou\u2019ve got to know when to hold \u2018em \/ Know when to fold \u2018em \/ Know when to walk away \/ And know when to run.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-is-the-fed-poised-to-make-a-mistake\">Is the Fed poised to make a mistake?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To bring this column back around to the subject of parenting, one thing I\u2019ve learned about being a parent is that we make mistakes. I can personally vouch for that. Just as fallible, if not more fallible, are central bankers. That\u2019s because parenting and central banking involve significant lags between taking action and seeing the results. The reality is that we are largely flying with blindfolds on. Will my daughter\u2019s experience as a teen in the workforce impact her spending decisions as an adult? We\u2019ll find out several years from now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Similarly, we have to worry that what a central bank thinks is appropriate monetary policy now will ultimately not be enough to control inflation \u2014 or we could find out that it was overkill, sending its economy into recession. That\u2019s why we need to stay vigilant as central banks attempt to do their best to \u201ctreat\u201d what ails their respective economies. Let\u2019s hope they will know when to hold them and when to fold them; otherwise, we could see some running.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-on-deck\">On deck<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking of the impact of monetary policy on the economy, we want to pay close attention to bank lending surveys.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The ECB Bank Lending Survey released last week showed that credit standards tightened on increased concern about non-performing loans. In addition, it showed there was a very substantial drop in demand for commercial loans caused by rising rates and other factors such as lower consumer confidence. I\u2019m sure that had an impact on ECB deliberations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On Aug. 7, we\u2019re slated to receive the next Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, which will give us important insight into lending conditions for the second quarter in the US. We will not want to miss this.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also on deck are more earnings reports and more central bank meetings this week \u2013 specifically the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>With contributions from Tomo Kinoshita<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 28, 2023<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of July 27, 2023<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3Source: S&amp;P Global HCOB, July 25, 2023<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted July 31, 2023 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/central-bank-policy-differs.html?utm_campaign=thirdparty&amp;utm_source=ibrokers&amp;utm_medium=referralference\">Thoughts from a road trip: Musings on parenting, central banks, housing, and earnings<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NA3034917<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Header image:&nbsp;Kike Arnaiz \/ Stocksy<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An investment cannot be made into an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investing in securities of Chinese companies involves additional risks, including, but not limited to: the economy of China differs, often unfavorably, from the U.S. economy in such respects as structure, general development, government involvement, wealth distribution, rate of inflation, growth rate, allocation of resources and capital reinvestment, among others; the central government has historically exercised substantial control over virtually every sector of the Chinese economy through administrative regulation and\/or state ownership; and actions of the Chinese central and local government authorities continue to have a substantial effect on economic conditions in China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a 12-member committee of the Federal Reserve Board that meets regularly to set monetary policy, including the interest rates that are charged to banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), or the PCE Index, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Expenditures included in the index are actual US household expenditures. Core price exclude food and energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated monthly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Senior Loan Officers Survey is conducted by the US Federal Reserve to provide qualitative and limited quantitative information on bank credit availability and loan demand, as well as on evolving developments and lending practices in the US loan markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The European Central Bank\u2019s Bank Lending Survey provides information on bank lending conditions in the euro area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The federal funds rate, or fed funds rate, is the rate at which banks lend balances to each other overnight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Employment Cost Index details changes in US businesses\u2019 cost of labor. It is prepared quarterly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indexes are based on monthly surveys of companies worldwide, and gauge business conditions within the manufacturing and services sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gross domestic product is a broad indicator of a region\u2019s economic activity, measuring the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced in that region over a specified period of time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;Green shoots&#8221; is a term that references signs of recovery or positive data during an economic downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tightening monetary policy includes actions by a central bank to curb inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The yield curve plots interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates to project future interest rate changes and economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bank of Japan\u2018s yield curve control policy seeks to fix yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds around zero, tolerating moves of up to 50 basis points above or below that level. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of&nbsp;<strong>July 31, 2023<\/strong>. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking&nbsp;statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The economies of the US, eurozone and Japan are all in different places, which means central banks must tailor their policies accordingly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":27,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2417,267,684],"contributors-categories":[13606],"class_list":["post-194257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-central-banks","tag-earnings","tag-ecb","contributors-categories-invesco-us"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Thoughts from a Road Trip: Musings on Parenting, Central Banks, Housing, and 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