{"id":194222,"date":"2023-07-31T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194222"},"modified":"2024-12-10T11:05:19","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T16:05:19","slug":"two-out-of-three-is-really-good","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/two-out-of-three-is-really-good\/","title":{"rendered":"Two Out of Three is Really Good"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With apologies to both <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Meat_Loaf\">Meat Loaf<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jim_Steinman\">Jim Steinman<\/a> (both sadly deceased), <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/k5hWWe-ts2s\">Two Out of Three Ain\u2019t Bad<\/a> is woefully inadequate for traders.&nbsp; If we can find a pattern that appears to work two out of three times, it\u2019s not \u201cain\u2019t bad\u201d, it\u2019s terrific.&nbsp; And it appears that index futures traders have latched onto one that has been working roughly that often this month.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Traders are always on the lookout for patterns that work, and I\u2019ve noticed one that has been working for them recently.&nbsp; Like many, I\u2019m somewhat a creature of habit, and one of those habits involves consulting certain news sources each morning, usually between 6:30 and 7AM (all times EDT).&nbsp; Even when I\u2019m not checking global markets and pre-market US futures, the sources I consult usually keep me apprised anyway.&nbsp; And this is what finally allowed me to piece together the patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One daily item is Bloomberg\u2019s Daybreak report, which is published around 5:30.&nbsp; They have a snapshot of ES futures in the piece, and more often than not those are flattish at that time.&nbsp; They were today.&nbsp; Another daily read is Yahoo Finance\u2019s Morning Brief, which arrives around 6:00.&nbsp; It is somewhat typical that futures have ticked up a couple of points by then.&nbsp; This morning for example, Daybreak had ES flat and Yahoo had it +3.25.&nbsp; As I page through other sources during the ensuing hours, sites like the Wall Street Journal and CNBC\u2019s app often show a bump of another point or two.&nbsp; It tells me that US-based traders are waking up and buying ES and NQ futures, perhaps reflexively rather than consciously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another time period to watch, one where I\u2019m typically quite engaged, is 8:45 \u2013 10:00.&nbsp; US Economic reports are generally released at 8:30, so anything can and does happen in their aftermath.&nbsp; But by 8:45 we usually have a better sense of whether the numbers will be truly market-moving or simply noise, so bullish traders start to feel emboldened once more.&nbsp; One of my colleagues commented this morning how we seem to get a ramp just before the equity markets open, which anticipates another typical flurry of buying on the US open, before finding a level a half-hour later.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The next flurry tends to appear just before European markets close at 11:30.&nbsp; Those dour Europeans are the ones letting early morning futures languish most days, and then once they are out of the way, we can feel emboldened to rally once more.&nbsp; Whether or not the Europeans are dour and impeding US markets is speculation at best, but it doesn\u2019t matter if that is actually true \u2013 just that traders act as though it is true.&nbsp; That next leg tends to top out around 1PM.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After that it\u2019s murkier.&nbsp; If it\u2019s an up day, we often get another push about an hour before the close, if not, we tend to meander.&nbsp; Also, sometimes we get some profit taking right before the closing bell.&nbsp; It\u2019s more difficult to discern that outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A quick analysis of the results over the course of this month shows that each of the first three strategies tends to work more often than not.&nbsp; Buying at 5:30 and selling at 7:15 is marginally positive, but buying at 8:45 and selling at 10:00, and buying at 11:20 and selling at 13:00 has been positive roughly 2 out of 3 sessions so far this month.&nbsp; Quite frankly, I have not had time to put these strategies through rigorous statistical analysis, but I don\u2019t think that many of the traders who are routinely buying have done so either.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here\u2019s the thing about speculative market environments: it doesn\u2019t matter if a pattern stands up to robust scrutiny.&nbsp; If there is an underlying trend, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-asymmetries-of-fear-greed-and-monetary-policy\/\">or market inertia<\/a>, traders are incentivized to follow it.&nbsp; In this environment, the usually secondary mandate of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape\u201d has taken precedence over the usual prime directive of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the Fed.\u201d &nbsp;A long-time market participant commented to me that this is the most FOMO that he has seen in over a decade and I\u2019m not inclined to disagree with him.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As I\u2019ve learned from experience, trends and statistical patterns work really well until they don\u2019t.&nbsp; Also, the more people that have jumped onto a trend, the more painful it is when they reverse.&nbsp; If you\u2019re buying reflexively, simply on the basis that stocks go up because they typically do, please keep that in mind.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With apologies to both Meat Loaf and Jim Steinman (both sadly deceased), Two Out of Three Ain&#8217;t Bad is woefully inadequate for traders.  If we can find a pattern that appears to work two out of three times, it\u2019s not &#8220;ain\u2019t bad&#8221;, it&#8217;s terrific.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":107381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[15666,15667,15669,15671,15665,15672,1383,7620,1584,15673,4135,15670,809,11634,5761,15668],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-194222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bullish-sentiment","tag-early-morning-trading","tag-european-markets","tag-fomo-fear-of-missing-out","tag-index-futures-market","tag-market-inertia","tag-market-sentiment","tag-market-timing","tag-market-trends","tag-reflexive-buying","tag-risk-management","tag-speculative-market","tag-traders","tag-trading-patterns","tag-trend-following","tag-us-economic-reports","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Two Out of Three is Really Good | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With apologies to both Meat Loaf and Jim Steinman (both sadly deceased), Two Out of Three Ain\u2019t Bad is woefully inadequate for traders. 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