{"id":194174,"date":"2023-07-31T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194174"},"modified":"2023-07-31T11:23:56","modified_gmt":"2023-07-31T15:23:56","slug":"weekly-market-recap-july-31-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-july-31-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: July 31, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Fed hiked rates to a range of 5.25%-5.50%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2Q23 GDP expanded at a 2.4% ann. rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE inflation rose 0.2% m\/m and 3.0% y\/y in June<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>July Jobs Report<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISM manufacturing and services PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JOLTS job openings<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At their July meeting, the Fed hiked rates by 25bps, as widely expected, to a range of 5.25%-5.50% and delivered somewhat dovish messaging. While statement language kept the door open for further rate hikes, commentary from Chairman Powell emphasized continued data dependency in policy decisions. In reviewing such data, last week\u2019s releases painted a fairly rosy picture of an economy showing resiliency in economic growth and labor markets, even as inflation declines further. The first estimate of 2Q23 GDP showed the economy grew at a better-than-expected 2.4% annualized rate, reflecting strength in consumption and the best pace of business fixed investment since 1Q22, rising 7.7%. PCE data also confirmed further progress on disinflation. Chairman Powell\u2019s focus measure of inflation, core services ex-housing PCE, rose a modest 0.24% in June, a notable downshift from the 0.44% average rate in the previous three months. Elsewhere, unemployment claims remain low and strong durable goods orders point to continued consumer and business demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Going forward, the Fed is likely to focus on inflation, with the July and August CPI reports playing a decisive role in their September decision. Powell also made specific mention of the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which may offer a clearer picture of wage gains relative to the BLS report, as it tracks the same jobs over time. The ECI rose 1.0% in the second quarter, marking the slowest quarterly pace in two years. Mounting evidence of a sustained disinflation trend could potentially give the Fed confidence to pause rate hikes in September. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly looking beyond incremental Fed tightening, with markets appearing relatively unfazed by the Fed meeting last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"435\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093246-1100x435.png\" alt=\"wage inflation continued to decline in the second quarter\" class=\"wp-image-194176 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093246-1100x435.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093246-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093246-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093246-768x303.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093246.png 1268w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/435;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"638\" height=\"77\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093317.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week\" class=\"wp-image-194178 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093317.png 638w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-31-093317-300x36.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 638px; aspect-ratio: 638\/77;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted July 31, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of July 31, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week\u2019s releases painted a fairly rosy picture of an economy showing resiliency in economic growth and labor markets, even as inflation declines further.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":194176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,570,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-194174","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-fed","14":"tag-inflation","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly 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