{"id":194096,"date":"2023-07-28T03:50:22","date_gmt":"2023-07-28T07:50:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194096"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:13:02","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:13:02","slug":"chart-advisor-sellers-reemerge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-sellers-reemerge\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Sellers Reemerge"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By <\/strong><\/a>J.C. Parets<\/strong><\/a> & All Star Charts<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thursday, 27th July, 2023<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1\/ The Euro Backslides <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Inflation Hasn\u2019t Topped<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Commodities Are Back on Schedule<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ META Reacts Higher<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter, which both sells its research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ The Euro Backslides<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The euro<\/a> was doing so well. It recently hit fresh 52-week highs, gaining more than 5% since June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That has all come to an abrupt stop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What started out as a routine pullback to a key polarity zone is quickly turning into a failed breakout<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The EUR\/USD pair dropped over 100 pips<\/a> today as sellers drove the euro lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All is not lost. The euro remains within a bullish momentum regime and posted an overbought<\/a> reading on the recent breakout. While the bears have made their presence known, bulls still hold the reins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But if the euro continues to slide, the U.S. dollar is most likely to be on the rise, along with stiff headwinds for global risk assets<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Inflation Hasn\u2019t Topped<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Fed raised interest rates<\/a> again yesterday as its battle with the transitory-turned-sticky inflation drags.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the true value from Wednesday\u2019s events resides beneath the headlines. Investors are adjusting to a new rising-rate regime as they accept the unavoidable: inflation<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. 10-year breakeven inflation rate is shaping up as a potential \u201cnot a top\u201d formation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve noticed similar patterns across stocks and commodities, especially cyclical<\/a> value-oriented market areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It makes sense. The Fed has yet to emerge as the victor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the 10-year breakeven continues to hold above its former prior-cycle high from 2018\u2014a critical inflection point for global risk assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The big difference from last year: Markets have turned the page, embracing aggressive Fed policy and rising rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Commodities Are Back on Schedule<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s been commodities<\/a> over stocks since crude traded below zero in the spring of 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While stocks have certainly shined this year, it appears that commodities are set to outperform. And this couldn\u2019t happen at a more logical point on the charts.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last month, we highlighted the S&P 500 versus the CRB Index<\/a>, a simple stocks\/commodities ratio:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Notice that stocks are retreating relative to commodities at a confluence of resistance<\/a>\u2014a multi-year downtrend line and a key retracement level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve referred to the recent correction as a \u201ccommercial interruption.\u201d Based on the chart, the commodity supercycle has resumed its regularly scheduled programming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ META Reacts Higher<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meta Platforms (META<\/a>) soared roughly 4% in today\u2019s session on the heels of an earnings beat<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

META is one of the world\u2019s largest and most important stocks, with the heaviest weightings and influence in the major averages, particularly the communication sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The price rebounded strongly after coming off the bottom last year, forming a \u201cV\u201d pattern<\/a> and then accelerating during the first half of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, the bulls claimed a critical polarity level at the $300 zone. If there is a place for META to halt its advance and digest recent gains, this would be it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, above $300, the path of least resistance is to the upside, and other areas of the market could follow this trailblazer higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 27th July 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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