{"id":194023,"date":"2023-07-26T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-26T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=194023"},"modified":"2023-07-26T12:39:24","modified_gmt":"2023-07-26T16:39:24","slug":"what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-fomc-july-2023-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting-the-fomc-july-2023-edition\/","title":{"rendered":"What to Expect When You&#8217;re Expecting the FOMC &#8211; July 2023 Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We interrupt your regularly scheduled earnings week programming to bring you this special report.&nbsp; OK, it\u2019s not all that special because it happens every six weeks, but it\u2019s Fed Day, and that overrides all the usual market concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market consensus seems to be centered around the concept of a \u201cdovish hike,\u201d which sounds contradictory.&nbsp; The hike is all but priced in, with Fed Funds futures are currently pricing in a 99.6% expectation for a 25-basis point hike this afternoon, but the \u201cdovish\u201d part is somewhat of an open question.&nbsp; Futures are currently pricing in only an 18% chance for a hike in September, but 46% for November.&nbsp; Thus, we need to focus on the nuances and subtleties of the FOMC\u2019s statement and of course Chair Powell\u2019s press conference to see if the Federal Reserve is indeed moving towards a more dovish stance.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While it is indeed evident that inflation has improved considerably from its vertigo-inducing levels, a wide range of inflation measures are still reading well above the Fed\u2019s stated 2% target.&nbsp; The disinflation that we\u2019ve been experiencing is both welcome and a necessary precondition for stable prices, but not a sign that the Fed has achieved its goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s recap recent inflation reports.&nbsp; Several economists I know prefer to use 3-month moving averages because they smooth out potential monthly gyrations while also eliminating stale 11-month old data from the comparisons.&nbsp; The Fed\u2019s stated preferred measure is the PCE Core Deflator.&nbsp; The last three readings have been 0.31%, 0.38% and 0.32%.&nbsp; That annualizes to just over 4%.&nbsp; Last I checked, 4 is greater than 2.&nbsp; Core CPI, which showed a lower-than-expected monthly rise of only 0.16% in June, looks different when annualized along with the prior 0.44% and 0.41%.&nbsp; That also annualizes to 4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It thus seems unreasonable to expect the FOMC to declare victory today.&nbsp; They can certainly recognize the improving inflation picture that we all see, but it also seems unlikely that they would do anything to offer any room for markets to reignite inflationary expectations.&nbsp; The best way for them to achieve that would be to reassert their vigilance against inflation by continuing to offer rhetoric that skews toward higher rates and tight monetary policies.&nbsp; Stock traders would relish softening rhetoric, but it is not clear that the FOMC statement will offer anything beyond an acknowledgement that inflationary pressures are abating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But that could change once the Chair starts his press conference.&nbsp; We\u2019ve seen Powell soften his message when questioned by reporters \u2013 either by leaving himself some wiggle room or by choosing to avoid outright confrontation \u2013 and we\u2019ve also seen traders seize upon even the slightest nuance that can be interpreted in a bullish light.&nbsp; Think about Powell\u2019s use of <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/say-the-secret-word\/\">the term \u201cneutral\u201d<\/a> that led to a huge rally in February.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Volatility expectations remain relatively muted ahead of today\u2019s meeting.&nbsp; Some of this is recency bias.&nbsp; As shown in the table below, we didn\u2019t move much after the last two meetings, so traders don\u2019t expect much at this one.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"860\" height=\"495\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture4-1.png\" alt=\"1 and 3 day changes after previous FOMC Meetings\" class=\"wp-image-194028 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture4-1.png 860w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture4-1-700x403.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture4-1-300x173.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture4-1-768x442.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 860px) 100vw, 860px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 860px; aspect-ratio: 860\/495;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The table shows the results for the period since the FOMC began its rate hiking cycle.&nbsp; If volatility has been decreasing both in the market overall and around Fed Days, then it is not unreasonable for traders to price in only modest assumptions for current and future movements.&nbsp; Using the term structure of volatility for SPY options, we see a spike for today through Friday, but it is important to keep in mind that that the options market is still pricing in a less than 2% move for today and less than 1% daily moves through Friday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-term-structure-of-volatility-for-spy-options\"><strong><em>Term Structure of Volatility for SPY Options<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"437\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture3-2-1100x437.png\" alt=\"Term Structure of Volatility for SPY Options\" class=\"wp-image-194027 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture3-2-1100x437.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture3-2-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture3-2-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture3-2-768x305.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture3-2.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/437;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unsurprisingly, the IBKR Probability Lab shows relatively symmetrical assumptions for outcomes for options expiring today and Friday, with peak probabilities in at-money options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spy-options-expiring-june-26-th-2023\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPY Options Expiring June 26<sup>th<\/sup>, 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"388\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture2-4.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPY Options Expiring June 26th, 2023\" class=\"wp-image-194026 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture2-4.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture2-4-700x290.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture2-4-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture2-4-768x318.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/388;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spy-options-expiring-june-28-th-2023\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPY Options Expiring June 28<sup>th<\/sup>, 2023<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"388\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture1-17.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPY Options Expiring June 28th, 2023\" class=\"wp-image-194025 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture1-17.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture1-17-700x290.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture1-17-300x124.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Picture1-17-768x318.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/388;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bottom line, traders and investors seem comparatively complacent about today\u2019s FOMC meeting.&nbsp; That has worked for them in recent weeks.&nbsp; Let\u2019s see if it continues.&nbsp; Conversely, the complacency meets that the potential for surprise is heightened.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We interrupt your regularly scheduled earnings week programming to bring you this special report. OK, it&#8217;s not all that special because it happens every six weeks, but it\u2019s Fed Day, and that overrides all the usual market concerns. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":115628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,314],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-194023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-fed","tag-fomc","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What to Expect When You&#8217;re Expecting the FOMC &#8211; July 2023 Edition<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We interrupt your regularly scheduled earnings week programming to bring you this special report. 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