{"id":193782,"date":"2023-07-24T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=193782"},"modified":"2023-07-24T10:42:08","modified_gmt":"2023-07-24T14:42:08","slug":"weekly-market-recap-july-24-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-july-24-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: July 24, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales was up 0.2% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts fell to 1,434k<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Industrial production was down 0.5% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Svcs. and mfg. PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real GDP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer confidence &amp; sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Thought of the Week<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent weeks, markets absorbed a lot of news pertaining to both sides of the Fed\u2019s mandate, full employment and inflation. In June, payroll job growth declined, the unemployment rate ticked down from 3.7% to 3.6% and wage growth remained at 4.4% y\/y, neither adding to, nor diminishing, fears of wage inflation. Meanwhile, June retail sales data added to a picture of a resilient economy, which we expect to be confirmed by this week\u2019s second quarter GDP release. The other part of the Fed\u2019s mandate, inflation, continues to decelerate, with June headline and core CPI at 3.0% and 4.8% y\/y, respectively. Similarly, Powell\u2019s preferred measure, super-core inflation, fell to its lowest level since September 2021. While both parts of the Fed\u2019s mandate continue to trend in the right direction, we expect the Fed to hike another 25bps on Wednesday. The market clearly agrees and is pricing in a 96% probability of a hike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless, the end of the Fed hiking cycle looks closer than it did earlier this year, with this week\u2019s chart showing the market expects no further hikes for the remainder of the year assuming we get a hike Wednesday. However, the market appears too pessimistic in its outlook for rate cuts with only one full cut expected in 1Q24 and a cumulative 125bps for the year. The Fed often raises rates on an escalator, before being forced to take an elevator down, with rates falling on average 275bps within the first year of cuts. As rates move lower, the investment climate becomes more appealing for all long-term asset classes. Investors may want to extend fixed income duration as expectations for policy rates in 2024 and 2025 may be too high given a softening in growth momentum and rapid decline in inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1005\" height=\"396\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094255.png\" alt=\"Federal funds rate expectations\" class=\"wp-image-193783 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094255.png 1005w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094255-700x276.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094255-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094255-768x303.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1005px) 100vw, 1005px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1005px; aspect-ratio: 1005\/396;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"494\" height=\"103\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094318.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-193784 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094318.png 494w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-24-094318-300x63.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 494px) 100vw, 494px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 494px; aspect-ratio: 494\/103;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted July 24, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of July 24, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As rates move lower, the investment climate should look more appealing for all long-term asset classes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":193783,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[10891,314],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-193782","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-federal-funds-rate","14":"tag-fomc","15":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: July 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