We’ve transitioned from the vibes-cession a year ago to the Taylor Swift economy today that just seems to shake off any short-run negative indicators. The latest catchphrase that might have legs is the \u201cRINO\u201d recession \u2013 a Recession In Name Only. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However you want to describe it, there\u2019s no doubt that economic resilience has been fearless and there\u2019s been an ongoing love story between price action and the bulls on Wall Street. But is there a blank space for more gains ahead? We can gain clues from key upcoming investor conferences as the sometimes-volatile third quarter presses on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It has been a solid start to the second half already. Stocks are higher across the board \u2013 from large-cap stalwarts to risk-on small caps. Both the value and growth styles are participating, too. This comes after a January through May stretch that saw a heavy concentration of gains in just a handful of mega-caps<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The latest twist is a steep drop in the dollar. The US Dollar index dipped below the psychologically important 100 level late last week, and that typically lifts share prices of foreign stocks. So, it\u2019s like an all-skate out there, though the banks showed lackluster performances on the first big day of Q2 earnings season. We\u2019ve already seen more sizable single stock moves this week, and the next two weeks are sure to feature more fireworks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Our analysts noticed an unusual trend as we look back on the first half of 2023. There were far fewer investor conferences this year compared to last. When aggregating conferences, summits, trade shows, forums, and seminars, total events were down 15% versus 1H22. <\/p>\n\n\n\n We can only speculate on what that could indicate, but with economic uncertainty running high and firms forced to tighten their purse strings during this ongoing earnings recession, perhaps this is just a lull. Should global real GDP growth expectations head higher and corporate profits rebound in 2024, then maybe the event count will follow suit. Something to watch at the very least.<\/p>\n\n\n\nFirst-Half Takeaways<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Questions to Ponder:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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