{"id":193405,"date":"2023-07-13T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-13T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=193405"},"modified":"2023-07-13T10:46:17","modified_gmt":"2023-07-13T14:46:17","slug":"must-know-inflection-points-across-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/must-know-inflection-points-across-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Must-Know Inflection Points Across Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bluelinefutures.com\/insights\/post\/1524\/?utm_medium=email&amp;_hsmi=266195380&amp;_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_avZOJe_D_e75v4kSULtDQ77osK3i0DHP0lvDhtt3qouBqeycEtSnfIsxQ8HEvKiactPmqsm33sEeazV211nqAOPjnfg&amp;utm_content=266195380&amp;utm_source=hs_email\">Do not miss yesterday&#8217;s Midday Market Minute, covering CPI and how to plan going forward.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices, and the June PPI report is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline at +0.2% m\/m, up from a disinflationary -0.3% m\/m in May, and +0.4% y\/y down from +1.1% in May.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core at +0.2% m\/m, unchanged from May, and +2.6% y\/y, down from 2.8%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Initial Weekly Jobless Claims are also due at 7:30 am CT, and traders should keep an ear to the ground for Fed speak. Fed Governor Waller is expected to speak at 5:45 pm CT, in probably the most closely watched Fed comments of the week, before the blackout period begins Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last night, China\u2019s Trade Balance data disappointed on both Exports (-12.4% y\/y versus -9.5%) and Imports (-6.8% y\/y versus -4.0%). Commodity and currency markets took this in stride, and rates continued to alleviate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Breaking: PPI was softer than expected with headline at +0.1% m\/m and +0.1% y\/y, while Core was +0.1% m\/m and +2.4% y\/y. However, Initial Jobless Claims were lower than expected and a six-week low at 237k versus 250k.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>E-mini S&amp;P (September) \/ E-mini NQ (September)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>S&amp;P, last week\u2019s close: Settled at 4507.50, up 34.00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NQ, last week\u2019s close: Settled at 15,444.75, up 184.75&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The slowest headline CPI since March 2021 has opened the door for E-mini S&amp;P and E-mini NQ futures to begin the next bull leg higher. Although today\u2019s PPI data was slower than expected, highlighted above, the job market remains tight, with Initial Claims coming in lower than expected. Although we believe the job market is close to loosening and by some arguments, it has begun, Fed speakers, such as Fed Governor Waller tonight, can use this narrative to remain hawkish through the expected hike later this month. Remember, due to the market\u2019s reaction function, the Fed cannot lift its foot off its hawkish rhetoric until the exact moment they are ready.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both E-mini S&amp;P and E-mini NQ futures have yet to trade yesterday\u2019s settlement price on today\u2019s session, which exudes a bullish undertone. From a price standpoint, the line in the sand is clear, an imminent breakout is underway while the S&amp;P remains above major three-star support at 4507-4509. Furthermore, a move out above major three-star resistance at 4536.50-4539.25 would pave a path of least resistance to 4603-4606. As for the E-mini NQ, yesterday\u2019s intraday pullback perfectly held previous resistance at 15,337-15,374, now officially major three-star support at 15,344-15,374. Similarly to the E-mini S&amp;P, while it holds above yesterday\u2019s settlement an imminent breakout is underway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bias: Neutral\/Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 4536.50-4539.25***, 4572.75**, 4585-4588.75***, 4603-4606***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 4507-4509***, 4497-4500**, 4483.75-4488.25***, 4471-4476****, 4454-4458.75**, 4439-4444***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>NQ (Sept)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 15,581-15,653***, 15,762***, 15,979-16,009***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pivot: 15,000-15,007<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 15,444-15,556***, 15,344-15,374***, 15,309-15,314**, 15,250-15,276****, 15,157-15,191**, 15,109**, 15,025-15,063****<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bluelinefutures.com\/free-trial\">Blue Line Futures provides daily actionable research and a professional trade desk. Sign up for a Free Trial here.&nbsp;<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Crude Oil (August)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 75.75, up 0.92<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude Oil futures tested the highest since May 3<sup>rd<\/sup>&nbsp;despite a much larger build of inventories than expected; Crude Oil +5.946 mb versus +0.483 mb, Gasoline -0.003 versus -0.727 mb, and Distillates +4.815 mb versus -0.262 mb. However, in line with what the EIA\u2019s Short-Term Energy Outlook called of, estimated production fell by 100,000 bpd and Net Imports accounted for a 4.1 mbpd increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bulls are clearly in the driver\u2019s seat while price action holds out above the breakout zone, now defined as major three-star support at 75.10-75.16. If this level is surrendered, the bull trend is not negated, but it would encourage a bullish consolidation that could test as low as major three-star support at 72.34-72.65.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bias: Neutral\/Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 77.87-78.23***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pivot: 75.70-75.75<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 75.10-75.16***, 74.67-74.83**, 73.92-74.15***, 73.40*, 72.97**, 72.34-72.65***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bluelinefutures.com\/free-trial\">Blue Line Futures provides daily actionable research and a professional trade desk. Sign up for a Free Trial here.&nbsp;<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gold (August) \/ Silver (September)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled at 1961.7, up 24.6<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Silver, yesterday\u2019s close: Settled 24.31, up 1.029<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold and Silver futures surged on the heels of yesterday\u2019s cooler than expected CPI data, discussed in our Midday Market Minute. Today\u2019s slower than expected PPI certainly helps brings added tailwinds, but Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected at 237k, and the labor market continues to be a headwind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gold finds itself back to a very critical level of resistance at 1971.2, with rare major four-star resistance above there at 1977.6-1980.4. A move above here will repair the damage created through the end of June and reemphasize Gold\u2019s intermediate to longer-term bull trend. As for Silver, the $24 handle is back. It is working to chew through a significant area of resistance at 24.49-24.51, but the bulls may have turned the tables and regained the edge while holding above major three-star support at 24.06-24.15.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bias: Neutral\/Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 1971.2***, 1977.6-1980.4****, 2000.7-2001.4***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pivot: 1961.7<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 1955.7**, 1949-1949.6**, 1944.5-1946.3**, 1938.7-1942.9****<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-silver-september\"><strong>Silver (September)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Resistance: 24.49-24.51***, 24.72-24.83**, 25.00***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pivot: 24.31<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Support: 24.06-24.15***, 23.87**, 23.53-23.59***, 23.37***<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bluelinefutures.com\/free-trial\"><strong>Blue Line Futures provides daily actionable research and a professional trade desk. Sign up for a Free Trial here.&nbsp;<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted July 13, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bluelinefutures.com\/research\/post\/2489\/\">Must-Know Inflection Points Across Markets<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The slowest headline CPI since March 2021 has opened the door for E-mini S&#038;P and E-mini NQ futures to begin the next bull leg higher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,17,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[4811,3598,2921,778,44],"contributors-categories":[13588],"class_list":{"0":"post-193405","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-commodities","7":"category-futures","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-inflection-point","16":"tag-market-outlook","17":"tag-metals","18":"tag-nasdaq","19":"tag-stocks","20":"contributors-categories-blue-line-futures"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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Bill has extensive experience in the financial industry as an advisor, trader and manager. He started his career as an investment banking analyst, but quickly left for the fast paced world of commodity trading in 2007. He got his start as a Market Strategist at Lind Waldock\u2019s Chicago Board of Trade office. Lind Waldock was purchased by MF Global and he began running his own trade desk there in 2009. In 2011, he took a role as the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER. 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