{"id":193228,"date":"2023-07-10T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-10T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=193228"},"modified":"2023-07-10T12:19:10","modified_gmt":"2023-07-10T16:19:10","slug":"weekly-market-recap-july-10-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-july-10-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: July 10, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ISM Mfg.\/Services PMI: 46.0\/53.9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. economy has proven to be more resilient in 1H23 than many expected, as strength in the labor market has helped support consumption. But how much momentum does that labor market have? This week\u2019s chart looks to quantify labor market momentum in one number by analyzing seven key indicators: private payrolls, average hourly earnings, the US Composite PMI Employment Index, the Conference Board Labor Differential Index, initial jobless claims, job openings and the unemployment rate. While the labor market remains a bright spot despite higher interest rates, it seems that this part of the economy is beginning to come off the boil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week\u2019s data confirmed that, while still tight by historical standards, the labor market is beginning to cool. After surging last month, JOLTS job openings fell to 9.8M, bringing the ratio of openings to unemployed workers to 1.6, its lowest level since October 2021. In contrast to this weakening signal, the quits-to-layoffs ratio rose to 2.58 on the back of rising quits. While still elevated, this is 23% below last year\u2019s peak. Elsewhere, nonfarm payrolls rose by 209K in June, falling short of expectations and slowing compared to May. The details were a bit mixed; a tick down in the unemployment rate to 3.6% and tick up in wage growth to 4.4% highlighted continued strength, but a material downward revision to job growth in April and May, and the slowest pace of private employment gains since 2020, confirmed that momentum is fading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking ahead, the labor market should continue to normalize, and payroll growth should moderate as labor demand cools. While this week\u2019s data did little to change expectations for the July FOMC meeting, an increasingly balanced labor market implies slower wage growth, which should allow inflation to keep drifting lower and reduce pressure on the Fed to maintain its hawkish messaging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1012\" height=\"397\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-100936.png\" alt=\"Labor Market Momentum Index\" class=\"wp-image-193229 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-100936.png 1012w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-100936-700x275.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-100936-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-100936-768x301.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1012px) 100vw, 1012px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1012px; aspect-ratio: 1012\/397;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"502\" height=\"145\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-101000.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-193230 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-101000.png 502w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-10-101000-300x87.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 502px) 100vw, 502px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 502px; aspect-ratio: 502\/145;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted July 10, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of July 10, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the labor market remains a bright spot despite higher interest rates, it seems that this part of the economy is beginning to come off the boil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":193229,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,217,683,3598,12555],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-193228","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-consumer-sentiment","14":"tag-cpi","15":"tag-labor-market","16":"tag-market-outlook","17":"tag-weekly-market-recap","18":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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