{"id":192974,"date":"2023-07-05T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-05T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=192974"},"modified":"2025-02-12T11:03:44","modified_gmt":"2025-02-12T16:03:44","slug":"fill-the-gap-episode-twenty-nine-with-craig-johnson-cmt-cfa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/contributor-podcasts\/fill-the-gap-episode-twenty-nine-with-craig-johnson-cmt-cfa\/","title":{"rendered":"Fill The Gap Episode Twenty-Nine, with Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA joins Fill the Gap for Episode #29 where we explore the detailed and comprehensive technical process the Piper Sandler technical research team takes every month to produce informed investors. Craig issued a contrarian bullish call on the S&P 500 going into 2023 based solely on the information provided by the markets. Using classic trend analysis, his team simply highlighted the series of higher highs and higher lows appearing in the equity index. But their process is revealed in the 300+ pages of the \u201cInformed Investor\u201d research report which delivers in-depth analysis of sectors, industry subgroups and a healthy appreciation for relative strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig has a deep appreciation for the analysts who preceded him at Piper Sandler including Steve Leuthold who sadly passed in March, 2023, and Ed Nikoski who Craig worked with closely before his retirement. There is a strong technical analysis community in Minnesota which now includes Ralph Acampora, CMT. However, he reflects on the advantage of being outside New York where independent thinking and contrarian viewpoint can flourish based solely on the message of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This episode also explores some remarkable alternatives to home heating in the depths of Minnesota\u2019s sub-zero winters! Enjoy this conversation with Chief Technical Strategist and former president of CMT Association, Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fill the Gap, hosted by David Lundgren, CMT, CFA and Tyler Wood, CMT brings veteran market analysts and money managers onto a monthly podcast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For complete show notes of every episode, visit: https:\/\/cmtassociation.org\/development\/podcasts\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transcript<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 00:13
Welcome to Fill the Gap, the official podcast series of the CMT Association hosted by David Lundgren and Tyler Wood. This monthly podcast will bring veteran market analysts and money managers into conversations that will explore the interviewees investment philosophy, their process and decision making tools. By learning more about their key mentors, early influences, and their long careers in financial services, Fill the Gap will highlight lessons our guests have learned over many decades and multiple market cycles. Join us in conversation with the men and women of Wall Street, who discovered, engineered, and refine the design of technical markets. Fill the Gap is brought to you with support from Optima, a professional charting and data analytics platform. Whether you\u2019re a professional analyst, Portfolio Manager, or trader, Optima provides advanced technical and quantitative software to help you discover financial opportunities. Candidates in the Optima.com. Hello, and welcome to Fill the Gap episode 29 with our very special guest, Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA. Joining me today is Dave Lungren. How\u2019re you doing my friend?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 01:55
As always, Tyler doing well, you know, I\u2019m just slowly watching this AI bubble percolate. Is it a bubble, though? Right, isn\u2019t it too early to call that bubble? Well, we\u2019ll see. I don\u2019t think so, but I think the fact that we\u2019re identifying it as a bubble probably means it\u2019s not a bubble yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 02:11
That\u2019s right. That\u2019s right. There we go. We recorded with Craig, mid June, on the 12th to be exact, and had just an incredible conversation about his take on global markets, what he\u2019s seeing in the charts and from a technical perspective. Dave, what what stood out to you from our conversation with Craig?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 02:30
Well, to be honest, I\u2019ve known Craig for years and I actually forgot about the how far back into the history books of technical analysis, in the CMT Association in particular, that his whole research process reaches I mean, it\u2019s all the way back to Steve Leuthold. And I forgot about that, you know, and I\u2019ve read his book that he sends out every every month, for years. And it\u2019s and I, you know, I\u2019m sitting here reading this book, not realizing that has reaches all the way back decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 03:03
Yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 03:04
You know, into the history of the CMT association. So iit was great to hear, but I\u2019ve always valued Craig judgment and his skill set in technicals. He\u2019s just very, very systematic, very even keeled, and he just does a great job of listening to the market, and the whole process of systematically tracking 1000s of stocks, and then just letting the market speak to him. And he\u2019s just a good interpreter. Yeah, as opposed to a forecaster and he\u2019s just, he\u2019s great at it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 03:36
You know, that really stood out to me that as part of the global macro team at Piper Sandler, there\u2019s not always going to be, you know, full agreement, right? If we all see the chart the exact same way, that\u2019s not what makes a market and Craig had very positive things to say about his colleagues and the fact that they have a different toolkit, and they see things differently, but I think it\u2019s also a testament to to Craig\u2019s personality that he\u2019s not afraid to step out with his own opinion, even if it is not the view of the fundamental side of the of the house at Piper. And so far this year the market has been proving Craig right. So.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 04:16
Yeah, he\u2019s had a good contrarian call against a very seasoned, very highly respected macro team. And, you know, whoever ends up being right out of this call, isn\u2019t the point and they\u2019ll be just as respected as they\u2019ve ever been. I mean, I\u2019ve listened to that team, and they\u2019re among my favorite macro strategists on the street. So it\u2019s not an \u201cus against them\u201d thing. It\u2019s just you know, sometimes we\u2019ll be right, sometimes I\u2019ll be right, but this is what Craig does best. This is when he really shines\u2014is when he is willing to put a stake in the ground and\u2014 Yeah. \u2014make a call, you know, and I actually have a T shirt in my office. It\u2019s\u2014I think it was S&P 2k, I think it was.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 04:59
Yeah, that\u2019s exactly right. And a Homer hanky\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 05:02
Yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 05:03
\u2014courtesy of the Minnesota twins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 05:04
He made\u2014he had, that\u2019s how convicted he was in his call based on listening to what the market was saying. He made T shirts about it. And it was. He\u2019s, pretty committed in his process. And that\u2019s the way it needs to be, you know?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 05:17
Yes, exactly. And when I first joined the MTA as it was back in the day, Craig was a board member, very actively involved, became vice president. I\u2019ve gotten to travel quite extensively with him for CMT conferences and events. And then he became board president, and like you said, not afraid to make a contrarian call now and again, and I think that stewardship and appreciation of the history coming from Steve Leuthold and others at Piper Sandler, he has deep respect for those who came before him, but also, you know, for blazing his own trail. And he certainly brought that to leadership in the organization as well, which is great to see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 05:57
Yeah, and, you know, from Minnesota, we won\u2019t divulge the whole thing here, but from Minnesota, there\u2019s a lot of ways you can heat your house. So you have to heat your house, if you live in Minnesota, and if you listen through the whole interview, you\u2019ll learn about how Mr. Craig Johnson heats his house.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 06:15
You know, Dave, he and I graduated from the same high school and I think some of his hobbies might be melting the ice rinks around Minnesota, if he\u2019s not careful. Yeah. Well, just before we get into today\u2019s episode, I want to congratulate all of our global CMT candidates. Here in the month of June, there is an intense, rigorous exam cycle. And for all of you who are listening, job well done, grades will be coming out in early August, but just sitting for the exam taking, taking a chance on yourself, investing in your own education and having the confidence to prove your skills in a very rigorous testing environment is\u2014that\u2019s worthy of praise in and of itself, regardless of your score. And for all of you who missed the chance to further your career and a chance to earn your own CMT designation, don\u2019t worry, registration just opened for our next exam cycle, which will be held November 30 through December 11. So you can head to cmtassociation.org right after this episode and get registered for your exams. So Dave, without any further ado, let\u2019s dive in to Episode 29 of Fill the Gap, the official podcast of the CMT association with our good friend Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 07:35
Welcome to fill the gap, the official podcast of the CMT Association this month, Tyler and I are joined in conversation by Craig Johnson, Chief market technician and member of the macro research team at Piper Sandler. Craig is a longtime CMT charterholders and he also has a CFA charter. And Craig has been a model member of the CMT Association over the years, of course, most importantly, serving as a past president. Now I\u2019ve known Craig for about 20 years, and I followed his work very closely. And he\u2019s never been afraid to have a contrarian call on the market. So I\u2019m really looking forward to catching up with him and getting his latest thoughts on the markets. Craig Johnson, welcome to fill the gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 08:15
Thanks, Dave. Thanks, Tyler. It\u2019s great to be on the show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 08:18
Nice to have a hornet with us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 08:20
It is very nice to have another Hornet here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 08:24
So you\u2019ve been at Piper Sandler for 28 years. It\u2019s quite a run. Maybe for our listeners who don\u2019t know you, there\u2019s probably very few, but let us know how you got into the business and what got you heading down the path of technicals?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 08:43
Thanks, Dave. So what got me going in the investment, business and technicals and charts was really back in college I started getting involved with\u2014it used to be the AT&T stock challenge when I went to Drake University. And at that point time, I just thought it was so much fun to be picking stocks for the portfolio. There was also a gentleman there by the name of Dave. Dave, and I\u2019m drawing a blank on his last name, but he\u2019s the one that introduced me while I was in school, grad school and undergraduate at Drake University to the William O\u2019Neal Green Book and Blue Book. We had a great time going through and flipping through those books, looking at stocks, looking at charts. I think I spent just hours and hours of time looking through those books and then started doing some my own trading while I was in undergraduate and graduate school there at Drake and believe it or not Tyler I actually had a quote machine while I was in the fraternity house<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 09:51
Oh my gosh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 09:51
One of those little green screen machines where I could just flip the pages on it and I was trading stocks. My roommate Alan Sugar at the time was trading corns, beans, hogs and all those things. And we had big whiteboard up in our, in our dorm, a frat house room and we were trading and also joined the frat house life too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 10:19
Very good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 10:20
And then I\u2019ll just add to into this Dave is that after I got done going to grad school, I came back to Minneapolis, I knew that I wanted to do something with technical research. I knew there were not many places in Minneapolis to do this. And so I found out that Piper, Jaffray & Hopwood at the time, now Piper Sandler had a technical research department, it was run by the gentleman of Ed Nikoski. And I called up one of the gentlemen on his team pretty much every day for six months, saying, Hey, this is Craig Johnson, I\u2019d love to talk to you about any positions you might have open. And finally, after about six months, he called me back and said, Yep, we\u2019ll give you a shot, why doncha you come on in. And we started working with Ed Nikoski and the technical research team back in 19\u2014the fall of 1995. And I gotta tell you, Dave, my starting salary, I think was a whopping $24,000 for the year. And I told my dad that I\u2019ll probably stick around for six months, get some experience, and well, he reminds me, it\u2019s now been 28 years that I\u2019ve been working here at Piper. Yeah, 28 years and a few pay raises, I assume? Well, a couple along the way. But you know, we have to figure out how to trade and make some of our own income along the way too. So we do that also.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 11:42
Craig, I wanted to ask you had a quote machine, you were trading in grad school. Did any professor ever mention technical analysis in any of your courses in business school or grad school?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 11:55
Well, at Drake, the answer is really no, I was not taught technical research at Drake, it\u2019s still a bit of a sore spot with me that they didn\u2019t want to teach technical analysis. And a few of the conversations that I had with the professors, they viewed technical research as really voodoo. There was no reason to learn technical analysis, because it had to all be about fundamentals and those kinds of things. And even when I would pull some of the books, pull some of the material and all these other things, have the conversations of the professor\u2019s they didn\u2019t really want to talk about it at all, unfortunately, so it makes me not a big donor for Drake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 12:33
Vote with your wallet, I like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 12:35
So a lot of folks aren\u2019t going to be familiar with Ed Nikoski, because he\u2019s most well known on the on the institutional side. And of course, I\u2019ve been following\u2014what\u2019s the name of the book? Is it the war book?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 12:45
Well, we have The Informed Investor publication we put out; we also have the statistical book, which we call the white book that has all the numbers and statistics on the market. Some people have also called it the war plan over the years, Dave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 12:57
The war plan, that\u2019s it. Yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 12:58
Yes. That\u2019s just not been a very popular name for a publication, especially if you\u2019re traveling internationally, you pull this thing out. It\u2019s called the war plan. And it\u2019s all full of numbers. And I\u2019ve had a few experiences going through Heathrow where they go through your bag, and they\u2019re asking you, sir, what is this war plan that you\u2019ve got? All these numbers mean? Is this some sort of code? But no, it\u2019s just the code and DNA of the market and trend in relative strength, yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 13:23
To talk a little bit about the book because again, I\u2019m familiar with that book for gosh, 20 years now. So it was started by Ed Nikoski or\u2014?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 13:30
Yeah, so the war plan data and then ultimately, The Informed Investor publication. These all started at Piper, Jaffray & Hopwood back in basically the late 70s and early 1980s. At the time, it was led by a gentleman by the name Steve Leuthold, who is very familiar with everybody here that\u2019s going to be listening to this podcast. And he unfortunately just passed away in March. And then at that time, Ed Nikoski, was working as an associate as my understanding to Steve Leuthold. And they had worked together for years. And then when Steve left to go start his own firm, then Ed McCaskey took over to become the senior of the technical project for years and that is when people this can continue to kept refining the war plan, publication or white book, and then also the informed investor publication. And for those that have been to the library at Baruch College, Tyler, you will find some of the original versions of the informed investor publication. They are in the library. But here in my office in Minneapolis, I think I have every copy or\u2014a copy of every informed investment publication we put out since basically the 1990s So there\u2019s been we\u2019ve done 10 of them a year, every year since then. So it\u2019s been a long standing project. And for me when I took over in 2004 I came into this group took it over as a senior in 2007 just been sort of a labor of love since.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 15:04
So for all of our listeners, you might be familiar with a technical research analyst that might put out a weekly note, or you might have read some blog posts. When we talk about The Informed Investor, I\u2019m looking at the May edition, it\u2019s 310 pages, and I am the owner, proud owner of a few copies that Craig has bestowed on me over the years. They make a great third base, Craig, really, you could hold the door open for eons with these books, right? There\u2019s some heft to that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 15:37
And you know, to that point, Tyler, there\u2019s many times that I stopped in the New York office and I found The Informed Investor use as a doorstop, I quickly pick it up, dust it off, put it back on the shelf, where it should be, and remind them that The Informed Investor is more than a doorstop. It\u2019s a way to make money in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 15:57
Yeah, all joking aside, this is perhaps the most thorough and thoughtful and comprehensive technical research, certainly that I\u2019ve seen on the street and to do that 10 times a year, Craig, that\u2019s a that\u2019s a mountain of labor. How big is the technical research team now at Piper Sandler?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 16:14
So Tyler, it\u2019s a labor of love for us to put this book together. But it is also part of the process that we\u2019ve developed over the years, we\u2019ve got The Informed Investor publication, we\u2019ve got our weekly publication, we\u2019ve got our daily notes that we put out, and then there\u2019ll be some quarterly reports and things along the way. But it really forces the team, which is a fairly tight team of individuals. It\u2019s myself, it\u2019s another gentleman by the name of Scott Smith, who\u2019s another fellow CMT, we\u2019ve got two gentlemen, that worked for us in Chennai, India. They\u2019re also CMTs. So we\u2019ve been introducing India to CMTs. And then we also have Daniela Martinez, who works on our team is sort of the administration assistant helping us keep track of marketing schedules, travel, and all these different pieces. And we are very grateful for all her hard work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 17:03
Awesome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 17:04
This book has set the bar for like what\u2019s excellent in research, certainly, technically, over the years. And what I\u2019ve loved about it is that it\u2019s always been so\u2014it doesn\u2019t go off into these rabbit holes of technical analysis. It\u2019s just really pure trend following relative strength, momentum and things like that. Can you talk about a little bit about what the thought process is in terms of what you put into the report? And why do you exclude some things versus what you allow in and\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 17:27
Sure! So Dave, what we always try to do is we try to think about this entire market. And again, when I say market, we\u2019re looking at every single stock above a 25 million market cap and a $2 price. So this can be 5000 stocks that we\u2019re pulling into our database every single night. And Dave, as part of the process of what we go through is we take and again, through this reader process of looking at all the charts, every single day, every single week, every single month, we will develop kind of a picture of what\u2019s happening with the market. Now in terms of the selection of what we put into the book, we can\u2019t show all 406 industry groups that we\u2019ve got, so we narrow it down. How do we do that? Well, we do that by using our trend and our relative strength tools that we call mace, and also technic great. And then Dave, what we do is basically put the entire market into sort of a normal total return relative strength distribution. And we sort of throw out the middle. And every single week we score all of these industry groups, so we got either an overweight, a neutral and underweight. And for the publication for the most part, Dave, I sort of throw out the middle, I want to show the overweights, I want to show the underweights because we know that the place to make money in the institutional world is going to be at the tails of the distribution in terms of the total return relative strength, not necessarily in the hump. And again, if there\u2019s other key parts of the market that may be neutral rated. For instance, right now I look at things like United Healthcare and the HMOs. I\u2019ll show them because they\u2019re negatively rated, I\u2019ll show the semiconductors because they\u2019re neutral rated and then getting stronger. You know, those are the kinds of things we\u2019ll try to do. But we\u2019re trying to find stocks and groups in motion day of the highlight. And that might get narrowed down to about 100 to 120 different sort of industry groups, we call them micro groups. So we\u2019re gonna go around, go out and highlight and then after that, we\u2019re gonna find the most attractive looking chart to put into that or a highlight from that particular group. So it becomes an actionable research report for people. If they\u2019re looking through technology, industrials, healthcare, whatever it is, they\u2019ll find ideas that they\u2019ll find actionable today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 19:39
How would you characterize your approach personally, is it\u2014because I\u2019ve known you over the years is definitely being somebody as you just described somebody that wants to be on the right side of trend, relative performance, follow the strength follow the lead of the market, but I\u2019ve also known you to take some pretty contrarian calls that I would never take because I\u2019m a trend follower so that, you know, it would seem to me like you\u2019re not always a trend follower like you\u2014at times you will go against the trend. And it seems like those really intense sentiment driven moments you\u2019ll go contrary to that, that kind of thing. So maybe you can talk a little bit about that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 20:08
So Dave, you are correct. But the reason we do that is because when we go through and look at this entire war plan data, what we\u2019ve discovered over the years is with great help from some of our former associates, like Adam Turnquist, who is now over at LPL Financial and does a great job over there now for them\u2014we miss him! But he added a lot of value to the project and left his mark, certainly in a positive way on the project over the years. But the way that we will do that Dave is when we go through, and we look at our 40 week technique where he measured the number of groups above their 40 week moving average, when we start getting to sort of sub 10% readings, in terms of the industry groups and stocks above their 40 week moving average, we know that from history going all the way back to the 1960s. When we get to those sort of capitulation sort of points. This is where we need to start leaning the other direction. And I know that it\u2019s not immediately in sync with trend. But we\u2019re at such an outlier level that we have to play contrarian, Dave at that point in time, and we\u2019ve gone back through time, and we said, hey, the average length of time that we stay sub 10%, could be eight to nine weeks. And we know that this is when he went on and started leaning into the market. We are trend followers first and foremost. But we also know that there\u2019s points in time when you\u2019re at these sort of extremes. And you have to pay attention to started leaning the other direction. And again, it\u2019s worked out well for us over the years. And we continue to really like those spots, because they tend to be pretty well fleshed out to the bottom pretty good washout points. Emotions are running high, as you mentioned, Dave, and it tends to be a strong contrarian call that a lot of people sort of fight you on a little bit. But that fighting that you get from people on this and questioning of it actually is sort of a good sign. That means that nobody\u2019s on board with you and market will eventually come back the other way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 22:04
What are some of the techniques you use to determine let\u2019s say: the markets washed out, everything\u2019s really extreme, thereby meaning everything\u2014most things are in a downtrend. What are some of the techniques you use to determine which stocks to buy if you can\u2019t use trend following as your guide? Because everything\u2019s in a downtrend? What do you lean on?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 22:22
So what I\u2019m gonna lean on is I\u2019m gonna lean back on price. First and foremost, something I\u2019ve learned from Ralph Acampora over the years, right? Price is fact at the end of the day, and if I see stocks that have pulled back to big long term identifiable support on a weekly or monthly basis, these are going to be areas that we\u2019re going to be very interested in picking up some of those ideas. Also be looking through some of the sectors, one of the things that you\u2019ve taught me over the years, too, Dave is: what\u2019s the leadership of the market? and look for those turns that are happening out there. And I\u2019ll be looking for those things that are really starting to bounce the hardest. And the question is, is that bounce, is it sustainable? Is it not sustainable? But that\u2019s what I\u2019ll be looking for in those sort of turning points. And again, coming back to price. So for that big identifiable support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 23:10
Yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 23:11
And of course, in The Informed Investor, you\u2019ve got sentiment analysis, you\u2019re looking at the VIX, you\u2019re looking at seasonality and cycles. Are they driving action in terms of your recommendations? Or is that helping give context and more of a narrative to what you\u2019re seeing in the marketplace?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 23:28
So Tyler, seasonality and VIX and other things, it\u2019s: VIX is going to help me with sentiment in the market for sure is where that\u2019s going to help me along with some of the AAII numbers and some of those other pieces. I would also say that as I look through the various studies and other parts that we put into The Informed Investor, that\u2019s where I\u2019m getting context and perspective from history. I\u2019ve often said that history may not repeat, but if it does rhyme, then we know that this is a potential outcome that we could see. And we will do lots of those different kinds of studies. I\u2019ve learned a lot of those studies from poor folks like Sam Stovall, over the years that we stay in touch with thinking about what it means when you\u2019ve got a 20% Advance coming off of major market bottoms. And what\u2019s the probability that that will continue versus fail. All those things sort of blend together for us context with trend that you\u2019re talking about Dave, what the relative strength where we need to ultimately focus, the emotion, the sentiment, with the AAII, the VIX, indicators, all those things come together, we try to shut out a lot of extra outside news and try to just focus on these sets of tools, trend and sentiment, to really help drive us in the right direction of where we need to be. It can be challenging when you\u2019ve got a lot of smart people yelling at you, like, \u201cYou\u2019re wrong, you\u2019re wrong, you\u2019re wrong, and the world is gonna fall apart,\u201d and you keep looking at the data and you look at\u2014like we had last October David, you and I talked about this at dinner a few months ago. You had this big sort of momentum wash out. It\u2019s very noteworthy and things you got to pay attention to. And it\u2019s proving out to be correct. And right now, very, very simple things like the trend changes in the major popular averages are quite constructive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 25:17
More recently, you\u2019ve kind of transitioned with with your new role at Piper Sandler. So you\u2019re, you\u2019re still the chief market technician there, but you\u2019re also a member of the macro strategy team. And that must be a pretty stressful conversation or meeting that you guys might have from week to week because most macro strategists are seeing the world pretty grimly, particularly over the next few months with recession and inflation, and God knows what else they\u2019re pointing to. But how does your analysis fit into that team? And how do you manage those conversations that are that can be pretty sensitive?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 25:46
Well, first and foremost, I\u2019m very happy to be part of the macro team here at Piper Sandler. Number one, with Nancy and Michael Kantrowitz coming on board, Danny Kirsch on the options side, Benson, Durham on the policy side of things and others, it\u2019s been great to join this team, they provide a whole nother set of perspectives for me to be thinking about with markets. Yes, we look at different tools. But you know, Nancy and Michael, they\u2019re true professionals, and we can agree to disagree on things. And again, a friendly way have these debates back and forth and have these conversations. The beautiful thing at Piper, all the way down from Chad Abraham down, who runs the firm is, it\u2019s okay to have differing views and perspectives. And in fact, they encourage that there isn\u2019t a single house view. And I think everybody embraces that and brings that to the table. As we have these sort of conversations about the market. How do I handle things, I just come back with statistics and stats and point out charts, I\u2019ll pull up pages in from The Informed Investor and say, \u201cHey, I hear your negative sentiment on housing. But look at the chart of this. Here\u2019s a long term chart going all the way back to the 1960s. We\u2019re breaking out and making relative strength, new highs, I hear you, but the charts are seeing something different. Where could we potentially be thinking about things differently?\u201d So it becomes Dave, kind of a conversation starter, and sort of an enhancer to be pulling these pages out of the book. It\u2019s almost like you\u2019re just kind of laying the cards out here. And you say, Hey, look at this, look at this on the economy, you think this look at that chart, and we\u2019ll kind of just have this sort of debate back and forth. And again, I\u2019m very happy to work with the team. They\u2019ve taken the readership of the technical product here at Piper over 10 fold what it was before they came.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 27:36
Oh, fantastic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 27:38
So it\u2019s been very good for technical analysis has been very good for Piper. And it\u2019s been very good to help us get the technical message out to even more people that perhaps hadn\u2019t been looking at the charts before, that are now doing so. So not only have they been terrific, but the sales folks have been great along the way in terms of selling and redistributing and getting this out in front of people. It\u2019s been a great experience all the way along. And the conversations while it gets competitive at points in time, we\u2019re all competitive people. But at the end of the day, as Ralph Acampora would say, price is fact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 28:14
Yeah, competitive is fine. Respectful is the most important thing. And it\u2019s shared views. And, you know, it\u2019s really interesting to the what you just highlighted in terms of the value of technicals. I mean, there\u2019s there\u2019s many levels to the value of technicals. But for the folks who are not technically oriented, what I\u2019ve always found to be the greatest value of introducing technicals into a conversation in a group that\u2019s not otherwise technically aware, is it sharpens the pencil and sharpens the focus on the disconnect between what the market saying and what everybody else in the room is saying. And as I always like to say the markets, the best fundamental analysts on the planet and in your job is as a technician, is to just listen to the best fundamental analyst on the planet. And if you can highlight those clear and obvious discrepancies between what the conversation is in the room, relative to what the market is trying to tell you. That\u2019s one of the greatest values of so, you know, for any non-technician or -technically oriented investor who might be listening. I mean, that\u2019s just one of the great values of getting CMTs on your team because they literally drive the most critical conversations. It\u2019s the it\u2019s the gap, right, Tyler? It\u2019s the gap\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 29:15
It\u2019s the gap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 29:15
\u2014between fundamentals and technicals. And that\u2019s what we\u2019re trying to close that gap and, you know, credit your warrior in that in that effort. So, this is great examples of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 29:23
So being in Minnesota, incredible agricultural and commodities driven region of the country, do you find yourself influenced at all or paying attention to intermarket relationships? And how does that play out with the macro team? Do you have folks who are specializing in on the currency markets or on some of these inflation driving commodities?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 29:47
Well, Tyler, first and foremost, I think of Minnesota as sort of the the haven of technical sort of research. We\u2019ve got myself here we\u2019ve got Ralph Acampora here, we had Steve Leuthold here, we\u2019ve had a number of great technicians coming out of Minneapolis. So I think what Minneapolis provides us is sort of we\u2019re outside of sort of potentially groupthink that you might get pulled into, you know, in the New York area where everybody\u2019s like, saying, so and so\u2019s done this, so and so it\u2019s done that we\u2019re kind of just one step removed from some of that. So we can sort of just focus a little bit more clearly on the trends and the relative strength. And in terms of being in Minneapolis, being a obviously lots of agriculture here between farming between dairy and all the other pieces, you know, Tyler, we do bring some of that into our work. And we do have sections in our book that\u2019ll have commodities, currencies, foreign markets, we\u2019ll look at all these different things. And it\u2019s fascinating for me right now, hearing about this entire discussion about inflation, and watching corn prices breaking down, and wheat prices breaking down and seeing these things. And it\u2019s often been said to me by some pretty smart people that America runs on two things, cheap food and cheap fuel. And seems like that\u2019s what\u2019s happening at this point in time. So we try to pull all these things together. And then in terms of the intermarket relations, those are very, very important. And I think anybody that hasn\u2019t read John Murphy\u2019s book on inner market analysis, if you haven\u2019t read it, you absolutely need to read it. It is the best book that I\u2019ve ever read on it. And it\u2019s been probably one of the most influential books for myself to think about these relations. And then bringing this back to the team to what your your question was, yes, I have these intermarket discussions with the macro team on a regular basis. And we\u2019ll look at some of the relationships and correlations between these various pieces and point these things out, which I think they find interesting. But again, they\u2019ve got their own tools and processes to help them make decisions. And again, we\u2019ll try to complement what they\u2019re doing point these various pieces out. But at the end of the day, we can have multiple opinions and multiple viewpoints. And that is ultimately a good thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 32:08
Absolutely. Thanks, Craig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 32:09
Do you know anything about crypto would you hear? Have you ever heard of it? Do you\u2014?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 32:15
How do you heat your house Craig?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 32:18
For for everyone, that\u2019s gonna be listening to this podcast. Yes. I\u2019ve been mucking around with cryptocurrencies with my eldest son, probably since about 2016\u20132017. We\u2019ve been doing that. And, yes, we\u2019ve heated the house over the years using Litecoin miners more recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 32:37
That\u2019s not a joke. By the way. He means that. He\u2019s heated his house\u2014tell the story about the utility company repair guy who showed up at your door saying what\u2019s wrong with your heat that we\u2019re not getting any bills?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 32:48
Yeah. So that\u2019s a good story. Dave. So years ago, this is probably I think, 2018\u20132019 timeframe, when we first started getting the servers up and running in the house. Before I even get to that, Dave, let me just say this. When I first fired up our first Bitcoin server back in 2016\u20132017, this thing started up and I could hear this thing winding up, and I could hear from my wife upstairs. \u201cNo, and hell no, are you running those things in the house,\u201d because they are pretty loud when you get them up and running. So needless to say, that went down the road of figuring out how to soundproof part of my utility room. But as we grew over the years, in terms of the number of servers we put in, the electrical bills started going up, the heat started rising inside of the house. And you are right, that we weren\u2019t using any natural gas, and the gas company came knocking on the door one time and they\u2019re like, it\u2019s like 20 below zero and the gas meter isn\u2019t running. Can we come in and see what\u2019s going on? And I said, Yeah, come on, in not a problem. And I showed him what I was doing. And they\u2019re like, Okay, that\u2019s a good idea. Repurpose the heat from these servers, put it back into the cold air return on the furnace and heat the house. Just let the blower motor run. Great utilization. I kind of think I\u2019m green, but perhaps not. But at the end of the day, we\u2019ve had that happen. And then Dave, we\u2019ve also had the sheriff\u2019s department over a few times because we\u2019ve lit up a few screens on their end from heat signatures and other things on the house and probably not really normal to have the windows open. When I was trying to figure out our heat problem in the middle of winter for a few years either never needed to close the windows, you could just leave them open and walk around in shorts in the house. So needless to say my wife has been patient with this sort of hobby my son and I have had.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 34:41
I just want to restate it. I\u2019m sure people have picked up on this but we\u2019re talking about Minnesota here. We\u2019re not talking about Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 34:49
We are talking about 20\u201330 below zero temperatures and sometimes colder and yes, you can use these things to certainly heat the house now. The opposite Dave is a little bit of problem in the summer, because you got to get rid of the heat, you can\u2019t just throw it out of the house. And you can\u2019t just throw all the hot air out of the house. Because what I\u2019ve learned over the time is you put your house into a negative deficit. And when you do that, you can\u2019t like open doors, you can\u2019t do other things when you suck all the air out of the house. So yeah, you got to be cognizant of what you\u2019re doing in terms of pressures in the house too, because that can also lead to mold or lead to other things like that I did not have any issues with those anybody wants to buy my house in the future. But what I will say though, is we did have to put in a separate air conditioning unit just to cool the miners that we have in the house. And one of the funniest, actually coldest days of the year back in 2018, or 2019. I had the air conditioning and heating and cooling, people over a 64,000 BTUs air conditioner. And we\u2019re installing it in February when it\u2019s 20 below zero. And these guys are coming to my house and they\u2019re like, What do you need air conditioning for? It\u2019s 20 below zero just open the windows, I\u2019m like dude, the windows are already open. So needless to say, it\u2019s been a learning experience. And it\u2019s been a great sort of father\/son project over the years to that we\u2019ve had a lot of fun with.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 36:25
Yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 36:26
All the engineering that you don\u2019t think about in cryptocurrency mining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 36:32
Yeah! You got to think about that. And then you also have to think about taxes, you have to think about trading, you have to think about position management and all these other things and how you\u2019re going to depreciate your servers and all the other stuff that a lot of people don\u2019t think about. But if you put it all together, is it profitable? It is profitable. You just need to put all the pieces together and it\u2019s not going to be just a quick plug it in, set it up, let it run and you\u2019re done. There\u2019s more a lot more to it than that. But it\u2019s been a good learning experience and certainly a lot of fun over the years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 37:07
Awesome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 37:08
So let\u2019s maybe transition a bit to your, your view on the markets here. I know you have had a, what\u2019s no longer, well I guess it could still be a contrarian call because still a lot of people particularly in the macro space, don\u2019t don\u2019t believe in the bull market. But we spoke several months ago, you were pretty bullish on the market. Based on all those contrarian things that you had highlighted at the time thing seemed to be kind of turning the corner kind of coming to your view. Maybe give us an update. What do you like about the market, anything that worries you concerns you etc?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 37:38
Yeah, so I guess from the kind of big picture perspective, and I\u2019ll kind of drill into this. It seems to me that the momentum low was made in October. And since then, we\u2019ve been making on a very simple perspective, a sort of series of higher highs and higher lows is what we\u2019ve been starting to make. You can see that with the S&P 500. And the evidence, has just been sort of building is what we\u2019ve been observing. We first started seeing multiple pushes up to the downtrend resistance line, Dave, off of the January 22 highs. And then we finally got through that. And we started reversing down trends on the S&P, the Dow, the NASDAQ, the Russell all those pieces started reversing, then we started seeing golden crossovers a 50 day moving average back above 200 day moving averages. And again, people are still continuing to fight that the trend has changed and reverse from a downtrend to an uptrend in the broader market sentiment along the way has remained predominantly negative. And then as of this week, we\u2019ve now got sort of the start of potentially a bull market, your definition has been a 20% Advance off of a low is considered to be a bull market, you were up over 30 for the NASDAQ at this point in time, and there\u2019s still tons of people that are like \u201cthis market can\u2019t work, it\u2019s going to crash,\u201d and yet the trends have changed. And people just are ignoring the fact that price and trend has changed. And from my perspective, one of the more interesting pieces that I\u2019d put out just in the last couple of weeks, in the big old informed investor book that you\u2019ve got there, Tyler, is we went back and we looked at how often do we see the NASDAQ Composite out pace the Dow by at least 10% in any given quarter. And when we went back and did that analysis, we found that since the 1970s. You know, there\u2019s only been about half a dozen, excuse me about a dozen times that you\u2019ve seen the NASDAQ Composite outpaced the dow by at least 10%. And what\u2019s fascinating to me is if I look at all those periods where that has happened, it\u2019s happened after at least a 10 to 20% decline in the market. But we\u2019ve also started to see the S&P moved back above its simple 40 week moving average. And we\u2019ve seen that happen pretty much in each one of those instances. And the other interesting thing about that, too, is\u2014and I didn\u2019t realize this until after I got done with this analysis\u2014I was on my Bloomberg, and I just said, How does this align with recessions? So I flipped on the little recession tool. And I was like, wow, this really only happens at the very end of recessions. And pretty much five out of the last five recessions, we\u2019ve seen that the very end, the NASDAQ has outperformed the Dow by at least 10%, in five of the last five, and the recession windows. And then, Dave, I took it one step further, which we like to do is look at forward returns. And when I look at forward returns six months later, from having that performance, the NASDAQ outpacing the Dow by at least 10%, you\u2019re higher on average, 7.03%, and your MIDI or your positivity rate is 69%. So you got pretty good odds that this is going to continue to play out in here. And I love taking all these sort of studies and pieces and putting it together. And it\u2019s laying out for us the path. And for us, the path of least resistance continues to be higher for this market. And then one other thing if I could throw out there, I think it\u2019s great to look at positioning data. So the commitment that traders report and look where people are positioned. And in the commitment that traders report, we are at in May, we were at some of the most negative positions on the S&P 500 E Minis that we\u2019ve been at since periods like June of 2020, October of 2015, October of 2011. These are all periods where you had huge negative net positions with the E Mini futures. And I would just point out six months later, after that, you\u2019re higher seven and a half percent of the time with a 75% probability. So again, putting all these things together, you start building that mosaic and framework telling us that this market is going to continue to keep working. And that\u2019s sort of what we\u2019ve been talking about. And then we\u2019ve also had other studies we\u2019ve done where you, in the first quarter of a new year, you don\u2019t trade back below the December, prior December low, when that has happened. You\u2019ve got really nice probabilities and setups for the four year return. So again, all these things together just continue to keep building be more evidence of a building on top of the mosaic of the evidence of why this market is going to go up combined with trend combined with relative strength and combined together with what you\u2019re seeing with some of the dollar interest rates and all the other pieces. It\u2019s all coming together nicely. Sentiment. Nobody believes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 42:51
And it strikes me given everything you just said that your number one sector is probably technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 42:57
Yes. With our tools. Again, we talked about earlier in this podcast that we put everything into a normal distribution. We do the same thing with our ratings too. And that\u2019s a great question. So right now we\u2019re overweight technology. We\u2019re overweight industrials, and we\u2019re overweight healthcare. And we\u2019ve been underweight staples, underweight utilities, and we continue to think that the remaining sector to be underweight would be energy at this point in time, it started the rollover, we had played the energy trade for 82 weeks. And just recently, we downgraded in May as we\u2019re starting to see energy beginning to really rollover. So again, if we play that sort of barbell Dave, as you\u2019ve seen us talk about and Tyler, you\u2019ve seen us talk about for years, if you can get two out of the three sector calls, right in a given year, you know that you\u2019re going to outperform, or the differential between you\u2019re underweight and you\u2019re overweight, excuse me, is somewhere between 20 and 30% in any given year, that is the helpful and usefulness of total return relative strength at a sector level that can give you an advantage where other investors that are trying to just look at the individual equities are going to be missing, we want to get that sector call, right? We then want to get the industry group call right? And then we\u2019ll think about the individual stock from there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 44:18
How do you consider sector calls when like energy pretty much every energy stock trades the same? So it\u2019s easy to say the energy sectors and underweight but when you get into consumer, industrials Tech, I mean there are so many different things going on in each side of those inside of each of those sectors that it\u2019s not really a like when Tech was really bad. Not too long ago, semiconductors were on fire. So if you if you were underweight tech, what you should have done is basically overweight semis and underweight everything else until just recently with software, software\u2019s catching a bit as well. So how do you differentiate between those two things?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 44:51
I differentiate them by by doing this first and foremost, I got to stick to the discipline of the three overweights and three underweights Dave, so there\u2019ll be some sector changes that we\u2019ll make along the way. But again, we\u2019ve got 406 industry groups inside of these 12 sectors. So I can then drill down into saying, yeah, maybe technology is a neutral at this point in time. But I can see from the total return relative strength work that semiconductors are standing out, just like IOD seeing that in energy, that it was kind of the large cap names that were sort of holding up there toward the end. And now they\u2019ve started to sort of roll over too. So again, by having all these detailed groups, Dave, I can then drill down from the sector level, down to those industry groups to differentiate but still maintain what the overall sector rating ultimately is. And to that point, when we do construct our book, I take that into consideration. If I\u2019m overweight a sector, it\u2019s really easy for me to find multiple industry groups to call out that are positive. But if I\u2019m neutral, a particular sector, I\u2019m calling that out, if I do do that, I will then have a balanced approach inside of that group with maybe four positives, four negatives, and I\u2019ll keep that sort of balanced approach. Because I do believe there\u2019s always something to buy somewhere. And that\u2019s the beautiful part about the total return relative strength work that we do do. And again, that\u2019s how we find it ultimately helpful and useful for institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 46:20
So historically, we\u2019ve often seen the leadership during the bear market follow through as the new leadership and the next bull phase. Were you surprised to see kind of the darlings of the COVID, crash, Raging Bull come back as leadership again, mega cap, tech names. And I guess the corollary to that is, the one piece of evidence that, you know, was was really damning to having an early bullish call was just the narrow leadership. We\u2019re obviously starting to see breadth improvements now. But did that give you pause to see technology names and large cap growth, take the lead again, in this new emerging bull?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 47:04
One of the best known technical rules out there is the rule of alternation that Louise Yamada has talked about. And I had a great time having this conversation with her at the CMT symposium that just took place in New York. And thank you Tyler for helping put that on. But it gave me an opportunity to sort of take some of these questions that I had for Louise, have the discussion with her. And sort of what I\u2019ve realized is, if I draw the uptrend support line off of the right shoulder low of the 0809 bottom, we really never violated that. So if you\u2019re going to have a true change of trend, you would then definitely say the rule of alternation would come into play. But we never broke that uptrend. So can we say that the bull market, really the secular bull market really ended? Probably not from that from that vantage point. And then in terms of the narrow leadership in this market, that is where I got to the question of \u201cWhy is the NASDAQ so outperforming the Dow?\u201d And that\u2019s where that narrow leadership sort of came into play. But as I\u2019ve explained to a lot of institutions, we\u2019re looking around as technicians to say, \u201cWhat is the new leadership of this market?\u201d And when you start observing what\u2019s working, what\u2019s not working, it just sort of told us that we\u2019re having a resurrection of the fang stocks again. And that\u2019s exactly what we, we started to see happen. And now, because we have the war plan, because we have all 5000 stocks that we\u2019re looking at, we\u2019re starting to see the breadth of this market improving new highs are beginning to expand, the number of groups that are trending in uptrend is improving, and the number of groups back above the 40 week. Was I surprised by the narrow leadership? It kind of just is what it is. We as technicians are humble observers of the market. And, again, I wouldn\u2019t draw conclusions too quickly, like some have that because the market leadership is narrow that this is going to roll over, let\u2019s examine what that narrow leadership was. And in fact, we called out in our publication, the fact that Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Meta, and Amazon represented about 40% of the weight to the triple Q\u2019s. And if you looked at those charts individually, you\u2019d say none of those are broken. You come to the very basic conclusion that the path of least resistance on a relative and absolute basis for those stocks is higher. And that\u2019s a big part of the market. So you sort of got to give it the benefit of the doubt and be like, \u201c{Yeah, this is going to work its way higher,\u201d and then, Tyler, pair that thought together with ratio charts, looking at large versus small, growth versus value, and you can start to see some of the inflection points of the change back towards small mid cap stocks. And that is indeed starting to play out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 49:58
Particularly in those small cap growth names.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 50:01
Absolutely. And so the question I get from everybody right now, Dave, is: What\u2019s going to lead for the remainder part of the year? And can these large cap stocks continue to keep working? I wouldn\u2019t be surprised if these large cap stocks just sort of went sideways, consolidated here for a while, because again, from the conversations that I have with a lot of institutions, they\u2019re like, \u201cWe love Nvidia. But I\u2019m at my mandate waiting, I can\u2019t own any more of this.\u201d So they\u2019re writing calls against it. And so money\u2019s coming out of that particular stock because they can\u2019t own any more of it. By definition, the market has to broaden out. And I think that\u2019s exactly what you\u2019re starting to see happen at this point in time, but money coming out. And then again, you can see the confirmation of it on the ratio charts, or a base 100 chart, looking at the small bid and large s&p,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 50:52
So I know you you\u2019d like to take contrarian perspectives, particularly when you know, bear markets are underway and things are getting extreme. Are you also willing, once the bull market has started? Are you also willing to take contrarian bets there and say, like, for instance, banks have been really pounded, we\u2019re in a bull market, I\u2019m gonna buy banks? or do you, once the bull markets are underway, you just go with what the leadership is,?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 51:11
I just want to kind of go with what the leadership is, once the bull market\u2019s kind of gotten started, Dave, and, you know, if there\u2019s something that does worry me, it\u2019s the banks have not participated, I got, you know, memories going back to 2007, where we started seeing the financials not engaged with the rest of the market. And so that\u2019s been sort of one of the worrisome points, I would say, the fundamental folks haven\u2019t brought this up enough, it does remain as a concern for me that they\u2019re not participating. But I do recognize that this is, this is different than what we had in 2007, and \u201908. That was a credit problem back then. And I could see when I go through and look at the beatable a spreads and those kinds of things. They\u2019re not widening out the way that you did back in 2007, \u201908 period of time, right now, this is a liquidity problem. And the liquidity problem kind of got quickly resolved by the Fed, they kind of broke the toy, they kind of fixed the toy, from my perspective, saying, hey, we\u2019ll take in all the paper that you need to sell dollar for dollar. And we\u2019ll put that facility in place for the next year. And it basically sort of fixed the toy pretty quickly from a liquidity perspective, that was starting to become a cascading problem. So to answer your question, Dave, I\u2019m going to try to let the trends play their way out. I do think your financials are going to play some catch up. I\u2019m starting to look at things like the KRE and some of these bank stocks. They\u2019re trying to turn, they\u2019re trying to move up. But would I rather buy that or what I\u2019d rather buy a HubSpot that\u2019s already already working and trending in a much better and stronger way? The answer is for the model portfolio that we run, which now does have a structured note behind it SOTOPUS S-O-T-O-P-U-S I have to have something in every single sector, Dave. So I will have exposure out there with a little bit of financials, again, a market weights, I\u2019ll be market weight to that, but I\u2019ll have more technology exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 53:10
So when you\u2019re looking at financials, which is neutral rating, in this month\u2019s Informed Investor, do you do the same relative strength work within those industry subgroups? Like would you be overweight? The insurance brokerage side and underweight some of the regional banks, at least right now based on relative strength leadership?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 53:31
Yeah, absolutely, Tyler. And that\u2019s exactly what we\u2019ll do. It\u2019s the exact same process, we\u2019ll rinse and repeat. So we don\u2019t own a lot of banks. We haven\u2019t owned a lot of banks in a while. We\u2019ve owned things like credit cards, we\u2019ve owned some of the insurance companies, we\u2019ve owned some of the investment banks, like Goldman, we stayed up cap, take that into consideration. And we\u2019ve also own things like market makers and electronic traders like Tradeweb. And those kinds of names. So yeah, we\u2019ll, absolutely. Even though we may be neutral to the sector, our goal is always trying to make money. So we\u2019ll definitely be skewing toward the best relative performing and trending groups in a sector that may be neutral rated. Just like the same will do the same for underweight rating sectors. So they\u2019re just, again, fewer options, and will be underweight. Yeah, that particular sector itself, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 54:24
So then just to step back, one second to the index level, because we\u2019re getting deeper into the composition 4625 sort of the year end target, everybody would like us to go in a straight line to that number and not have any bumps along the way. When you issue sort of a longer dated price target. There\u2019s always going to be some chop. And I think in some earlier publications you were looking for, perhaps a drop, seasonally speaking or a 5% retracement on on this bull market. What are you seeing right now in terms of that breath expansion and some rotation that might, might maybe change your opinion to something more range bound and sideways rather than a sharper correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 55:08
Yeah, I mean, you\u2019re right. All investors want a straight line, sort of move in the market. And we all know, and everybody on the podcast here knows that the world does not work that way. What we laid out originally, Tyler, for the for the full year of 2023, is a little play on Dr. Seuss. We talked about a hop, a drop, and a pop. And with that sort of scenario, again, people look at me like, Craig, and you know, Dave, you said this to me before over the years, okay, we\u2019re supposed to observe what\u2019s happening today, don\u2019t forecast looking going forward. But in the institutional world, and on the sell side, they want a prediction from us as what they ultimately want. And so what I\u2019ll do is I\u2019ll step back. And when I put together the hop, a drop and a pop for 2023, what I was looking at was a.) what does my year end price objective look like based upon my point and figure price target model that I\u2019ve got, and then what events are coming up into the year that could sort of fluctuate and lead to that volatility. And so, from my perspective, I thought the hop would have probably ended in March. And it continues to keep hopping at this point in time, shall we say, I did adjust my drop scenario from what was originally something along at 10%, sort of dropped scenario, to one that\u2019s now about 5%. In the most recent May Informed Investor publication, and I also sort of titled it more of a drop\/chop phase, because I do think that this market is going to move up maybe could have to consolidate before you go on higher. But I do think that the pop phase is still playing out. And what I think will ultimately happen is if the Fed does pause, or when the Fed is ultimately done, we know that from your last hike to your first cut, from the Federal Reserve, that if you plot those charts out, which again, I love, charting out anything I can ultimately chart out, we know that you\u2019re 12.93%, higher on average. And again, the beautiful part about the CMT Association, is you meet a lot of great people. This wasn\u2019t my original idea that I put in here. I happen to get to know, have gotten to know, Sam Stovall over the years. And this was a idea he and I have talked about on a regular basis. And it ties together very nicely with all these other pieces. So the association is great for networking and meeting people. And I\u2019ve met a lot of great people that are very thankful that I\u2019ve met over the years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 57:47
Awesome. Well said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 57:48
One of the conversations I\u2019ve had what, particularly if you\u2019re if you\u2019re bullish when the market is \u201cexpensive\u201d over the years that I\u2019ve had with institutional colleagues, as I\u2019m trying to convey to them a bullish stance, is that they just really push back hard on on valuation. So I\u2019d be curious to know how you handle that situation? How do you coach institutional investors through this conversation about valuation?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 58:12
In terms of trying to go through the valuation conversation with them, it\u2019s a harder conversation to ultimately have because they will end up sort of talking themselves out of the market, when they should probably stay in the market. And so what I tried to coach him is, yeah, you can be concerned about valuation, but this market may continue to keep going higher, whether we like it or not. So we\u2019re better off putting a trendline below this, or we\u2019re better off putting some moving averages into the discussion here. And let the let the stock work until you break one of these trend lines or break one of these, you know, moving averages, ultimately is how I tried to coach him through it. Even using tools like RSI, I would say, don\u2019t get too overly carried away, because some of your best momentum and some of your best moves happen when your RSI is north of 70. And it\u2019s not until you break back below that 70 level that you would ultimately want to sort of take some of the money off the table. So I think that\u2019s how I would coach him and I have coached him over the years on these kinds of things, Dave, and also, it doesn\u2019t hurt to take some profits if you\u2019re super nervous on it. If its position size is getting to be uncomfortably large. There\u2019s more factors than just trend that come into play with these institutions. And again, like I said earlier with Nvidia, if they\u2019re out there mandate, they can add anymore. You might as well trim some if you\u2019re uncomfortable within redeployed elsewhere. So price will come into play, but also the positioning and portfolio positioning has got to be a part of the discussion too, Dave.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 59:46
Yeah. I\u2019m curious if you have any view or if you\u2019ve been asked or you\u2019ve had conversations about whether or not AI is a bubble, what you\u2019re finding in that space technically, is that something you\u2019d be overweight and then just can you couch that conversation in the view of whether or not you think it\u2019s a bubble or not?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:00:01
Sure. I mean, I\u2019ll be straightforward. I don\u2019t think that AI is a bubble\u2014yet, AI has the potential to become a bubble, just like the Internet became a bubble. And if you think back why this became a bubble. So just a quick step back in history, when I started at Piper in 1995, I was like the coolest guy in research because they let me have a dial up modem at work. Okay. This is like a 28 baud dial up modem. And I\u2019m showing him like, look at all these things you can do on the internet. And they thought that I was crazy. And at one point in time, I had a sunglass store on the internet with my brother called EJ sunglasses, which he closed last year, after I gave it to him, because I didn\u2019t think he was doing things the right way. But that\u2019s another discussion for another day. But, but at the end of the day, what I will say is, I think that what drove the bubble for the dot com was, there was a huge demand for internet related things to happen, the bankers brought a ton of product to market, and it came all too quickly, we haven\u2019t even started to see any IPOs related to AI at this point in time, there\u2019s a ton of venture capital, where there\u2019s tons of projects, and those things will eventually need to come public. But it\u2019s gonna take, Dave, I think, higher interest rates before it becomes from a capital perspective, better to go public than it is to borrow money from the banks. And I think that cycle is still yet to come in front of us. So I don\u2019t think the ingredients are the same as a bubble at this point in time, some people have been calling Nvidia a bubble at this point in time. And it\u2019s time to take money off the table. And I\u2019m kinda like, they\u2019re kind of like the picks, the axes, and the shovels of what you need to do a lot of this AI stuff. And I\u2019ll just make the observation that there\u2019s only been 30 times since Nvidia came public where you had greater than a single day return greater than 15%. And if you look back six months later, to a year later, you\u2019re higher, basically 90% of the time with a return close to 48%. So you\u2019re not there yet, calling Nvidia, a bubble. And for the entire group, you\u2019re not there. I have seen a bubble and the bubble was the internet. And this is not even close to where that is. It\u2019s got the potential to be a bubble. But it\u2019s also got the potential to significantly drive productivity in the economy. For those listening on the podcast, I have started to do some Python programming using an API in the chatGBT. And I could tell you my code development of writing Python has been sped up tremendously by using chatGBT, it\u2019s an AI, those things are absolutely terrific. But the bubble is not here yet. It\u2019s a long way to go.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 1:02:53
One of the things I point to when people ask me if it\u2019s a bubble is you know what, when you have a bubble, it\u2019s basically an acceleration of returns over a six to 12 month period, into meaningful new record high territory. And if you look at an example of an AI ETF would be BOTZ B-O-T-Z and siphon at a 52 week high yet? Yeah, that\u2019s not a bubble.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:03:12
It\u2019s not it\u2019s not a bubble. And I also look at what they have inside of some of these ETFs. And I\u2019m kinda like, yeah, there\u2019s really not enough product here yet at this point in time, not enough companies. True companies doing AI have come public yet. But I think that is on the common I think what we should all be watching for anybody listening to the podcast is keep track of just how many of these AI related companies come public in the coming months and coming quarters, because I think it\u2019s going to be quite a few.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Lundgren, CMT, CFA 1:03:41
Yeah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:03:42
I wonder what the correlation is between those calling for a bubble in AI and those who got burned on their SPAC investments? Couple years ago, right? Some recency bias at play with a lot of these naysayers. I would also just point out that a lot of the macro people that are negative on the market are also calling out AI as a speculative bubble too. Very similar. But I agree with you, Tyler can be some of the SPACs along the way, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 1:04:09
So in the gold rush to AI, we\u2019ve got to think about Nvidia and others as the picks, axes, and shovels that help people get there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:04:18
And that, again that, this\u2014let me add one more thing, Tyler if I could, that is exactly what happened back in the internet days, is you needed the infrastructure built so that you had all of the on ramps onto the internet, you had the backbone put in place, you had the storage, you had all the other things. If you think about AI, you need a ton of processing power, you need a ton of memory, you need very low latency networks. You need all those pieces that come into play. And it\u2019s just further driving that picks, axes, and shovels sort of phenomena again, but those are the early stages of ultimately a change. And then if I could add one other thing people keep saying that AI is potentially going to be dangerous, it\u2019s going to be a problem. It\u2019s going to be these kinds of things. I think it\u2019s just an evolution of how productive we can ultimately be. I think it\u2019s definitely going to drive higher productivity. And I think some of the jobs are going to be impacted right away. I mean, no question coding, programming, all these things. I mean, I can literally go into chatGBT and say, Hey, I need a Python script to copy files from location A to location B, write that for me. And it\u2019ll basically spit it out for you in a couple of minutes. And you can tweak it, you\u2019re done. service jobs, clearly. I\u2019ve had one gentleman in Geneva, Switzerland, say to me that I\u2019m a dinosaur. And technical analysis is going to be replaced by AI. And I just kind of pulled out for him the the top guideline that, that may be true Mav, but not today. That\u2019s kind of how I think about the world of technical analysis in AI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 1:06:03
I mean, total opinion piece here, but it does seem like the accounting industry might be more readily disrupted by repetitive tasks that can be easily replicated by AI, rather than the interpretive work that technical analysts need to do. Craig, you just made an offhand comment about a higher interest rate environment that might generate a frothier IPO market, when it becomes more advantageous to go public than to debt finance any of these projects. We haven\u2019t really talked about the major secular inflection on you know, like a quarterly chart of the TNX, we can see that, you know, I basically came into the world at the top of the market, and it\u2019s been, it\u2019s been down for about 41 years until recently. We\u2019ve had this this sideways consolidation since the highs in October last year on something like the TNX. Are you looking for it to break above that downward sloping trend channel? And if so, what what do you think the implications are for the equity markets, but maybe more specifically, what do you think the implications are for the crypto markets?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:07:13
Okay, so let\u2019s, let\u2019s address the bonds first, we\u2019ll go to equities, and then we\u2019ll hit up Cryptos. So ultimately, I think that the secular change, and again, secular long term 40 year plus downtrend, reversal and 10 year bond yields is the single most significant chart that any technician is going to see probably in our career. And Dave, I think you got a long career still ahead of you. So I just want to let you know. So.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 1:07:38
Tell us how you really feel Craig! The most important chart\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:07:42
Long career so\u2014most important chart. And what I would say is, we all know that if you study price action at the market, that once you reverse a long term secular trend, you surge through it. And then you usually spend time backing and filling. And I suspect that you could see through the course of this year, Tyler backing you filling back toward three, three and a quarter from where we are right now. And that would not surprise me at all to see that sort of short term backing and filling. Could there be a point in time where ultimately sort of the 10 year bond yield just goes sideways for a while? I think the answer to that is yes. We saw that coming out of World War Two, when you had the major sort of spinning down or unwinding of the war footing and production and all those kinds of things that took place, you started seeing interest rates moving up. But eventually they got sort of capped and stuck in a range for about 10 years, I would not be surprised to see that happen. Given the fact we\u2019ve got $32\u2013$33 trillion of debt sitting out there. Having rates going up too quickly, would be very negative. And I think everybody in Washington, Republicans and Democrats are well aware of that happening. And hence they got the debt ceiling issues, I think squared away pretty quickly because they do not need to default and have higher interest rates. Now play that into the equity market. I do think that coming off of these zero sort of 10 year bond yields type rates. And by the way, just years and years, it was a couple years ago, you had Austria come out and issue, you know, 100 year bonds. I mean, they\u2019re my heroes, like they absolutely nailed that completely perfectly. And now they put the country in very good financial footing for 100 plus years with how much they issue. I was surprised how much people snap that up, but be that as it is. Now in terms of equities, rates going higher, moving up in here a little bit, I think that will ultimately lead to people changing how they finance things. There\u2019ll be more banking that\u2019s going to come into play. There\u2019ll be more initial and IPO offerings to take place. I think that will ultimately be good for Wall Street across the board. I think that also mean that with some higher inflation out there, I think equities will probably be a pretty decent place ultimately to be, from my perspective, I don\u2019t think inflation is gonna get carried away. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s going to go to some 1970s type level, maybe down the road that could be but right now, I don\u2019t I don\u2019t see that being the case. And then putting that back into the crypto world, you know, slightly higher interest rates in different Cryptos could be a little bit of a negative for Cryptos. I mean, they certainly did very well, in a very, very low interest rate environment. But I think what\u2019s going to ultimately make Cryptos work in a low environment or a higher environment is ultimately going to be rules of the road getting established. This saber rattling between Gary Gensler and Coinbase, at this point in time, I think is terrific. It\u2019s going to clear the path for the rules and regulations. I do not believe this is again, my perspective. But I do not believe that they want to kill the cryptocurrency industry as some people are speculating, because guess what, I\u2019m paying taxes. And anybody else that is out there trading the cryptocurrencies or mining it are paying ordinary income or capital gains taxes on the trading that they\u2019re doing. And the US government with $32\u2013$33 trillion in debt shouldn\u2019t be cutting off any sort of potential revenue stream for them. So I think Cryptos will work. And it will be it will be a viable, I think, alternative in the future. Excellent. And that higher yield higher interest rates, do you see that impacting the longer dated growth equities? I mean, do you think we\u2019ll see a leadership change away from, certainly non-profitable tech, but growth equities as a whole? I think only if you saw interest rates to say move up to 6 or 7%. But that\u2019s not what I\u2019m thinking at this point in time. I\u2019m thinking that 10 year bond yields could get stuck in a range of 3 to 4%. And from that perspective, to stuck at a range of 3 to 4%, I think you can still see those long dated pieces, you know, work okay. Thank you, Craig. Awesome. We\u2019ve had you for about an hour now. So I know you\u2019re extremely busy guy. I know you got a ton of calls today. So absolutely. On behalf of the CMT Association, myself and Tyler, I want to say thank you very much for your time today. Of course, thank you very much for all your service within the CMT Association, it\u2019s\u2014you\u2019ve been a valuable asset of the organization, a big reason for why people join us so they can get to know Craig better. So thank you for that. Tyler, do you have any wrap up questions before we let the man go?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 1:12:45
I will just say that one of the projects for the 50th anniversary CMT symposium was to write a history of markets and of this wonderful organization since the late 1960s. And I was tasked with writing a little commentary about the future of the organization, but also about our global expansion. And Craig Johnson, I may have more pictures of you at conferences, seminars, events, chapter meetings, long range planning. It\u2019s been a real pleasure to work with you since I first joined in 2011. And believe at that time, you were you were the secretary of the board quickly moved to Vice President and then became the president at a time that was a real pivot point for technicians. We re-worked the CMT curriculum, you had an incredible supporting role, shouldering a lot of responsibilities through a big change process, as well as the change of the name of the organization, from MTA to the CMT Association. And for all of our listeners, Craig Johnson is probably one of the most open, friendly, ready to mentor, happy-to-answer-your-question, kind of members of this organization. So thank you for being such a staunch advocate and an awesome mentor. It\u2019s been been quite the run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:14:02
Well, Tyler, thank you for the kind words, but I got to tell you, so we\u2019re still on the board of the Technical Analysis Educational Foundation, and there\u2019s still more changed to get done. And even though I\u2019m not present in around the CMT board anymore, I still think we\u2019ve got more things we\u2019d like to get done to help the organization as a whole. So here, you\u2019ll hear from me in the near future on some of these new topics and projects that I would love to get cleaned up and done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 1:14:28
Cannot wait. For all of our listeners, make sure to check the show notes. We\u2019ll have some links in there and and a few charts to help guide this conversation. Craig, as always, pleasure to get your thoughts on the market. Great to see you and hopefully Dave and I will get back to Minnesota one of these days soon. So we can, you know, have one of those green belts that Minnesota is so famous for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA 1:14:52
Happy to do it. Thanks, Tyler. Thanks, Dave. Appreciate it. You got it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tyler Wood, CMT 1:15:01
Fill the Gap is brought to you with support from Optima. In addition to candidates study of the official CMT curriculum. Optima provides a full video course on all of the material that candidates need to know for each level of the CMT exams. Each course is broken up into modules ranging from 15 to 45 minutes depending on the complexity and length of the topics being covered, learn more at Optima.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted June 30, 2023 – Fill The Gap Episode Twenty-Nine, with Craig Johnson, CMT, CFA<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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