{"id":192879,"date":"2023-07-03T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=192879"},"modified":"2023-07-03T10:32:04","modified_gmt":"2023-07-03T14:32:04","slug":"weekly-market-recap-july-3-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-july-3-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: July 3, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1Q23 real GDP (final est.): +2.0% q\/q SAAR<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/core PCE: +3.8%\/+4.6% y\/y<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Real consumer spending: +0.5% m\/m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mfg.\/services PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employment &amp; JOLTS<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stocks and bonds have had a strong start to the year due to resilient economic data, a bounce back in profit margins and a moderation in the market\u2019s expectations for interest rates. That being said, while stocks and bonds have improved from their lows of 2022, commodities finished 1H23 down due to cooling energy prices and weakening global manufacturing demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In terms of performance, U.S. large cap led the way, finishing 1H23 +15.5%. However, despite the rally, returns have been entirely driven by the market\u2019s largest stocks, with the top 10 companies in the S&amp;P 500 accounting for over 95% of the index\u2019s YTD performance. Elsewhere, U.S. small caps lagged behind their large cap peers in 1H23 due to the lower quality of earnings and their greater exposure to cyclical sectors, which have underperformed this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the international markets, DM and EM increased 11.2% and 4.8%, respectively, in 1H23, as a weaker U.S. dollar and strong economic data in both regions buoyed returns. Some of this momentum, however, did wane toward the end of quarter in EM, as recent economic data from China have disappointed relative to expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lastly, U.S. fixed income increased 1.8% in 1H23 due to a moderation in interest rates. Within the fixed income universe, global high yield performed well, as better than expected earnings have supported credit quality. While the default rate and downgrades-to-upgrades have increased, they both still remain below long-term averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead, investors should continue to be active and diversified, as the stock market\u2019s narrow breadth, weakening expectations for forward earnings and the possibility of further rate hikes from the Fed could weigh on markets in the quarters ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1018\" height=\"399\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094746.png\" alt=\"1H2023 asset class returns\" class=\"wp-image-192883 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094746.png 1018w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094746-700x274.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094746-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094746-768x301.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1018px) 100vw, 1018px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1018px; aspect-ratio: 1018\/399;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"491\" height=\"78\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094810.png\" alt=\"Chart of the week and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-192884 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094810.png 491w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/07\/Screenshot-2023-07-03-094810-300x48.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 491px) 100vw, 491px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 491px; aspect-ratio: 491\/78;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted July 3, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., July 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of July 3, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While stocks and bonds have improved from their lows of 2022, commodities finished 1H23 down due to cooling energy prices and global manufacturing demand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":192883,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[45,592,2298,44],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":["post-192879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-bonds","tag-fixed-income","tag-market-recap","tag-stocks","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: 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