{"id":192857,"date":"2023-07-03T08:32:38","date_gmt":"2023-07-03T12:32:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=192857"},"modified":"2024-01-24T12:13:16","modified_gmt":"2024-01-24T17:13:16","slug":"chart-advisor-banks-pass-the-test","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-banks-pass-the-test\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Banks Pass the Test"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By <\/strong><\/a>J.C. Parets<\/strong><\/a> & All Star Charts<\/strong><\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Banks Pass the Test<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Cruise Lines Set Sail<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Miners Lead Bitcoin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Real Yields Challenge New Highs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter, which both sells its research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Banks Pass the Test<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Board released the annual bank stress test<\/a> results, demonstrating that the banking system remains strong and resilient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Banks are a critical area for the stock market. They\u2019re an excellent risk-on indicator, accounting for the largest weighting in small-cap<\/a> equity indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After the SPDR Regional Banks ETF (KRE<\/a>) broke down from a head and shoulders<\/a> pattern in March to its lowest level since 2020, the price is now coiling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

We’re asking ourselves whether this continuation pattern<\/a> will resolve in the direction of the underlying trend or if buyers can step in and drive prices higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A bullish reversal from this economically sensitive group would bode well for the overall market. On the flip side, we\u2019re eyeing the COVID lows and would expect broader market pressure if this pattern resolves lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Cruise Lines Set Sail<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Cruise line stocks are catching higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yes, even the former laggards<\/a> can\u2019t seem to print fresh lows as bullish data points continue to mount in favor of a sustained rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s our equal-weight<\/a> cruise line index reclaiming a key polarity zone earlier this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Like any of the strongest groups in the market these days, cruise line stocks have completed a textbook reversal pattern<\/a> and are making fresh highs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Seeing some of the hardest-hit stocks find their footing and rally along with the leaders is a clear indication of risk-seeking behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer is strong, and investors could be ready to set sail as bullish tailwinds pick up across the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Miners Lead Bitcoin<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve been highlighting the impressive relative strength<\/a> of cryptocurrency<\/a> stocks over the last few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They have outperformed their counterparts since Bitcoin<\/a> (BTC\/USD<\/a>) bottomed in November last year and have yet to show signs of slowing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The above chart highlights Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA<\/a>) resolving higher from a short-term continuation pattern while Bitcoin pushes against the upper bounds of its range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We believe that these two will likely resolve in the same direction and that Bitcoin could follow the miners\u2019 lead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If and when that happens, it will be a feather in the hat for the entire crypto space.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Will Emerging Markets Follow CEW?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Emerging markets have been on a tear\u2014both equities and currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the failed breakout in the Emerging Market Currency Fund ETF (CEW<\/a>) raises concerns over continued emerging market strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out CEW overlaid with the Emerging Markets Ex-China ETF (EMXC<\/a>):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Yes, we\u2019re talking about yields. But we see a potential bullish continuation pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While we can\u2019t directly trade the U.S. five-year real yield, an upside resolution would spell trouble for gold<\/a> and other precious metals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As long as real rates continue to climb, the near-term forecast for gold and precious metals remains messy<\/em> for longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 30th June 2023<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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