{"id":192530,"date":"2023-06-26T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=192530"},"modified":"2023-06-26T15:47:53","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T19:47:53","slug":"market-lessons-from-the-coup-that-wasnt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/market-lessons-from-the-coup-that-wasnt\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Lessons from the Coup that Wasn\u2019t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I assume that many of you were also gripped by the weekend news out of Russia.  Like the rest of us, I remain fascinated with the odd series of events and outcomes, along with the rapidity of how events unfolded and then appeared to be neatly refolded.  Even though the activities all transpired while world markets were closed, there are still some useful takeaways for investors about how to consider exogenous global events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A reporter reached out to me around 9AM on Saturday morning for my thoughts about how the goings on in Russia might affect global markets.  Here were my initial thoughts, typed out on my phone, without edits:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are my initial thoughts, hopefully organized by asset class:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

General<\/u> – this is a truly exogenous event that leads to initial shock and a flight to safety.  It should awaken VIX from its stupor.  First move is likely to be a bump in government bond prices (lower yields) and USD.  Riskier assets tend to decline.  The question is how much and how lasting the reaction will be, much of which depends upon unknowable developments.  Among other things, I just heard Col. Vindman on CNN saying he was concerned about rogue nukes.  (Yikes!)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Commodities<\/u>– even with Russian embargoes, they still sell plenty of raw materials to sympathetic nations like China and matter to the global supply.  It is reasonable to expect oil and other key commodity prices to rise.  If oil prices rise sharply, that will indeed weigh upon equities and reignite stagflation fears.  Gold is tough to read.  In theory it should benefit from a flight to safety, but in practice a strong dollar can impede it.   And both Russia and Wagner need to raise funds somehow…  Notice that Bitcoin is essentially unchanged, probably on similar logic. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bonds <\/u>– US treasuries should rise on the safety trade.  The tougher read will be on the shape of the yield curve.  A global supply shock could impede or reverse recent disinflationary progress, requiring central banks to harden their resolve even as inflation reignites.  That would steepen the current inversions.  Yet if it’s bad enough, the consensus view could change to one where central bankers worry less about inflation and more about the economy.  But that seems more like a second order effect.  <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equities<\/u> – stock traders are surprisingly inept when it comes to digesting geopolitical news that has a nebulous impact on earnings, cash flows and the like.  They\u2019re really good at assessing the impacts on companies\u2019 bottom lines. With Russia largely disconnected from the global economy, few US or European companies will have direct impacts from instability in a country that\u2019s already a pariah.  So the broader markets will take their cues from bonds and commodities.  Defense-related stocks should catch a bid – the world is not a safer place today – and commodity-linked stocks should also be outperformers for the reasons stated above.  In theory, this should provide a test to the concept that megacap tech stocks are a bastion of safety (Will this disrupt, say, Apple’s earnings or the future of AU.  Probably not.  But will investors be continually willing to pay higher multiples for them?  We’ll see).  And the market’s recent bet that volatility has been squashed for the near to medium term should get a stern test.  Hard to see VIX with a 12 handle next week.  <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(The resulting article, which used an edited version of those points, is here<\/a>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What we see this morning is that some of those themes are still affecting markets, though of course in a muted form.  We see global equity markets and US Treasury yields modestly lower, oil prices and VIX modestly higher, and gold essentially unchanged.  For the most part, my gut was largely correct.  But I was wrong about defense stocks.  They\u2019re lower because there is a reasonable chance that the disarray could shorten the war in Ukraine.  Good for the world, and especially the Ukrainians, bad for those who sell weaponry.  Let\u2019s think about why we were right and wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. <\/strong>Stay in your lane!\u00a0 (Part 1):\u00a0<\/em> You should notice that there was no commentary about what I thought might happen between Wagner and Putin.\u00a0 I had and still have no special insight into the events on the ground.\u00a0 I know that my grandparents had the good fortune to be chased out of what is now Belarus over a century ago; I know little specifically otherwise about that region.\u00a0 That means one needs to\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.<\/strong> Absorb information from actual experts:<\/em> The airwaves and social media become filled with \u201cexpert\u201d opinions, real and inflated, as events unfold.\u00a0 We all need to consider the commenters\u2019 expertise and background, if possible.\u00a0 The only expert I quoted was Col. Vindman.\u00a0 He is a polarizing political figure to many, but as someone who was born in the region, speaks the language, and spent much of his working life studying its military and political situations, he should be deemed much more credible than an armchair tweeter.\u00a0 But even the best-informed commenters really don\u2019t know what is occurring in a fluid situation.\u00a0 As a result\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. <\/strong>Be nimble:<\/em> If events are unfolding quickly, so are potential outcomes.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think many market participants had \u201cRussian coup attempt\u201d on their weekend outlooks, nor do I think that many had \u201cit will be over, bloodlessly, in 24 hours\u201d once it began.\u00a0 We can\u2019t get entrenched into viewpoints that are subject to change rapidly.\u00a0 It is also important to remember that when situations become fluid, volatility ensues, and volatile markets tend to be illiquid.\u00a0 I\u2019ve previously mentioned the sign that used to hang over our trading floor when we were major options market makers.\u00a0 I don\u2019t have a picture, but it said something like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Markets Get Crazy:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Raise volatility<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Shrink sizes<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Widen bid\/asks<\/em><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    You\u2019ll notice that items 2 and 3 reduced the number of options that we were willing to buy and sell at any given price point and time.  That is literally a reduction in liquidity.  And we know that we were not the only ones implementing those tactics during hectic situations.  Illiquid markets exacerbate the volatility that we tend to see during crises.  Which means\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    4.<\/strong> Stay in your lane!\u00a0 (Part 2):<\/em>\u00a0 When I answered the reporter\u2019s question, I started and ended with what I know best: volatility.\u00a0 VIX began the day over a point higher, though it has since given back about half its early gains.\u00a0 It remains to be seen whether VIX does fully awaken from its recent stupor, but it is likely that some of the recent sellers of VIX in the low teens remember that this is a one-tailed trade.\u00a0 Further drops, tend to be small and slow; jumps occur quickly and sharply.\u00a0 Over the years I\u2019ve seen enough \u201cflight to safety\u201d trades to know that jumps in volatility measures are accompanied by drops in Treasury yields, and that gold\u2019s reaction can be fluky.\u00a0 Sometimes it\u2019s a flight to safety, sometimes a source of cash for those who are affected, and both are influenced by gold\u2019s property of being an \u201canti-dollar.\u201d\u00a0 As for commodities, I spent many years trading stocks and options in Canada, and before that Australia.\u00a0 To trade in those markets, one needs to keep a close eye on developments in the key commodities that influence their economy and most important stocks.\u00a0 Yet I waded into an unforced error by commenting on defense stocks.\u00a0 I have no particular expertise in that sector (see item #2) and should have simply kept those thoughts to myself.\u00a0 And\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    5. <\/strong>No one is forcing you to trade:\u00a0<\/em> For better or worse, a large portion of my job description involves commenting about markets under all sorts of circumstances.\u00a0 Prior to that, I was committed to posting bid\/ask prices whenever markets were open.\u00a0 Most of you have neither of those requirements.\u00a0 If you don\u2019t have any particular knowledge or opinion, it\u2019s often best to stay on the sidelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As I read through the above rules\/opinions\/suggestions, it is useful to keep them in mind even when markets are calm.  It is much easier to respond during a crisis if you\u2019ve already practiced the required techniques in advance.  All sorts of professions train during quiet times to be better prepared for crises.  Investors and traders should utilize a similar mentality.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I assume that many of you were also gripped by the weekend news out of Russia. 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