{"id":192479,"date":"2023-06-26T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=192479"},"modified":"2023-10-05T16:21:12","modified_gmt":"2023-10-05T20:21:12","slug":"2023-sustainable-investing-midyear-outlook-agri-food-for-thought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/contributor-podcasts\/2023-sustainable-investing-midyear-outlook-agri-food-for-thought\/","title":{"rendered":"2023 Sustainable Investing Midyear Outlook: Agri-Food for Thought"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Tom Lyons<\/a> and Chris McKnett<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom Lyons, head of Climate for Allspring, and Chris McKnett, head of Sustainable Strategy, Stewardship, and Implementation for Allspring\u2019s Sustainability team, discuss the impacts of a changing climate and how they\u2019re becoming increasingly evident worldwide on different industries, especially how the world produces and consumes food. A more complete discussion can be found in Allspring\u2019s midyear report<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom Lyons: <\/strong>What\u2019s coming together, as we look into the next few decades, are very sharp increases in demand for food, but with very limited remaining land with which to grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris McKnett: <\/strong>That\u2019s Tom Lyons, head of Climate for Allspring. I\u2019m Chris McKnett, head of Sustainable Strategy, Stewardship, and Implementation for Allspring\u2019s Sustainability team, and you\u2019re listening to On the Trading Desk\u00ae<\/em>. Thanks for joining me today, Tom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom:<\/strong> Happy to be here, Chris.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris:<\/strong> The impacts of a changing climate are becoming increasingly evident worldwide on different industries. Why is this important today and looking ahead?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom: <\/strong>There are going to have to be major changes in the way we produce and consume food over the next few decades. And we\u2019re already starting to see these things. We\u2019re going to see impacts on a broad range of industries that range from crop science, capital goods, agricultural technology, advanced analytics, and transportation. It\u2019s almost the case that you can name any industry in the economy and you\u2019re going to see an impact one way or the other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris: <\/strong>OK. Well, let\u2019s dig into those changes, then. I mean, the agri-food value chain, it\u2019s broad and deep and so are the forces that are affected by it. So, what\u2019s causing the more prominent changes that you are tracking?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom: <\/strong>We can think of causes and effects in three categories: economic, environmental, and social. Regarding economic stresses, we believe that supply needs to increase by more than 65% over the next two decades to satisfy demand for food. We expect population to grow from about 8 billion today to almost 10 billion by midcentury. And on top of that, a lot of that growth is going to occur in increasingly wealthy emerging economies. And what you see in correlation with increasing wealth is increasing demand for food per person and also changing dietary preferences that favor richer, more production-intensive foods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris: <\/strong>OK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom:<\/strong> At the same time, there\u2019s little remaining unused arable land. It\u2019s remarkable when you look around the globe, just how extensively we\u2019ve put to work land that is suitable for growing crops with. And for that limited remaining unused arable land, there\u2019s going to be increasing competition from non-food-related sources. Today, for example, energy crops, mainly including corn and soy, see about 40% of their production go into biofuels. So, what\u2019s going to need to happen is we\u2019re going to need more and more innovation that helps us improve crop yields. We\u2019re going to need more drought and pest-resistant seeds. We\u2019re going to need enhanced tilling practices on the land that we have just to get more calories out of every acre of land.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris:<\/strong> Right. So, those economic drivers are massive. But what about environmental or social pressures, too?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom<\/strong>: Agriculture itself is a major contributor to emissions. If you look at not only farming practices but also the transportation of food throughout the value chain, you\u2019re looking at something in excess of 30% of global emissions being tied in one way or another to agriculture. So, the need to decarbonize the economy is going to be one important factor that changes the way we produce food. Water scarcity affects most\u2014in fact, every\u2014major food-producing region of the world. We\u2019re going to have to get better at growing more food with less water. It\u2019s as simple as that. This comes back to not only crop science but also a lot of other technological innovation around how we irrigate crops. And we\u2019re already seeing benefits of this in places like California and the Mississippi River Basin. Extreme weather is very important. We\u2019ve all seen dramatic headlines about floods and droughts disrupting not only the growth of crops but also their transportation. And there\u2019s an increasing push in most of the developed world to preserve biodiversity and with good reason. We all depend on natural capital in industries ranging from medicine to infrastructure to food production itself. And we\u2019re going to have to get better and smarter about how we take care of biodiversity in general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris:<\/strong> So, what are some of the activities to phase down or eliminate? And, equally, what are some of the practices or technologies that must ramp up here?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom<\/strong>: I think there are two current practices that we\u2019re going to need to phase out very quickly and perhaps ultimately eliminate. The first is deforestation. Right now, agriculture accounts for something like 75% of the deforestation that occurs around the globe. Deforestation is a massive problem, not only because forests are an essential sink, or a way of sequestering carbon emissions, but also because forests, of course, are an important source of biodiversity. The second thing that I think is going to need to be phased down relatively quickly is how we use and the extent to which we use nitrogen and phosphorus-based fertilizers. Right now, we use so much of these products that as water runs off of existing cropland, so much nitrogen and phosphorus leeches into rivers, streams, lakes, and oceans that we\u2019re creating what are called dead zones in various examples of all of them. That is, we\u2019re creating situations in rivers and oceans, in particular, where the ability for fish and other types of flora and fauna to feed themselves has been destroyed. Now, these problems can be reversed over time, but it\u2019s going to take a very concentrated effort to change the way we reduce our use of fertilizers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris:<\/strong> OK, the dynamics that you and our colleagues are thinking deeply about influence companies across several different industries from chemicals to retail to capital goods and, of course, food products. But state and local governments are on the front lines of a lot of these risks and impacts, too. So, can you give us an example there, Tom?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom<\/strong>: Absolutely. Just last week, the Department of the Interior announced that it\u2019s reviewing a proposal from California, Nevada, and Arizona that would restructure what\u2019s called the Colorado River Compact. That\u2019s an agreement that seven Western states set up in the first part of the 20th century to divide up and share Colorado River flows for drinking water and irrigation. So, I mentioned that Arizona, California, and Nevada have put forth a proposal. That proposal would seek to avoid mandatory water cuts imposed unilaterally by the Department of the Interior. And its water cuts would expire after 2026. What\u2019s really interesting and important and what\u2019s going to have a direct impact on markets in this proposal is that Arizona, Nevada, and California are proposing to cut their consumption of Colorado River water by 13%. And then, they\u2019re asking that the federal government pay the affected irrigation districts and Native American tribes and cities $521 for each acre foot of water that they don\u2019t use. This is really important because in what\u2019s essentially an unprecedented way, we\u2019re pricing water the way other countries are pricing carbon emissions right now. When we put a price on water to local economies and local communities, we require those who use the water, which are mainly farmers but it\u2019s also cities that need to provide drinking water to their citizens, to really take a hard look at their own profitability and make an economic decision as to whether or not it makes more sense to continue to grow crops or just fallow their fields. And based on some analysis that our team did earlier this year, we\u2019re expecting over half a million acres in the Central Valley of California to be fallowed simply because with this new pricing regime for water, they can\u2019t make any money. They\u2019re not profitable anymore. I think we\u2019re going to see a lot of that land converted into solar and wind power production. We\u2019re going to see other tracts of land converted into both commercial and residential real estate development. And we\u2019re really going to see a transition in the nature of the economy in that part of the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris:<\/strong> With the time we have left, Tom, what parting thoughts do you have for our listeners?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom<\/strong>: I think there are two ideas I would really want to leave our listeners with. The first is that we\u2019re looking at a very broadly based impact on our portfolios. In general, we\u2019ve already talked about seven or eight major industries that are going to have to change the way they operate in order to help us have the supply of food meet the demand for food. The second thing, more generally, is the level of volatility that we expect to see in margins. Whether it\u2019s due to some of the environmental stresses that we described or the technology innovation that we described, there is going to be more surprises more frequently across the agriculture and food value chain. And because that increased volatility is going to feed into the prices of securities often on the downside, that volatility needs to earn an additional level of return to compensate investors for the risk they\u2019re taking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris:<\/strong> Thanks, Tom, for being with us today and sharing your insights. You\u2019ve given us a lot of food for thought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tom<\/strong>: Absolutely. It was my pleasure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris:<\/strong> I\u2019m Chris McKnett. Thank you for listening to On the Trading Desk\u00ae<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Announcer: <\/strong>Visit allspringglobal.com to receive more market insights and investment perspectives from Allspring Global Investments. To hear the latest from our thought leaders on the ever-changing investment landscape, you can subscribe to the program on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Thank you for listening and joining us on the road to investing elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted June 21, 2023 – 2023 Sustainable Investing Midyear Outlook: Agri-Food for Thought<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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