{"id":192332,"date":"2023-06-21T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-21T17:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=192332"},"modified":"2023-06-21T13:19:43","modified_gmt":"2023-06-21T17:19:43","slug":"three-days-of-selling-oh-my","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/three-days-of-selling-oh-my\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Days of Selling &#8211; Oh My!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s amazing how quickly we become accustomed to good news.&nbsp; I have probably received more questions in the past two days about why stocks have been selling off than I did about why they were rallying during the past few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s be clear \u2013 I had plenty of discussions about the character and leadership of the recent rally, but the idea that stocks <em>should<\/em> go up went largely unquestioned.&nbsp; When we\u2019ve rallied for 6-8 straight weeks (six for the S&amp;P 500 [SPX] and eight for the NASDAQ 100 [NDX]) it becomes second nature to think that the uptrend is simply the expected state of affairs.&nbsp; To a large extent, that is a reasonable expectation.&nbsp; Stocks do tend to go up over time, which is a key rationale for equity investing.&nbsp; But it is not normal for any asset class to rise unrelentingly.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That is why my comments over the past couple of days have tended to start with a reminder that there is nothing abnormal or unhealthy about some profit taking after a strong move higher.&nbsp; Traders know that even in a highly trending market it is typical for prices to experience some countertrend moves; \u201cbacking and filling\u201d is one term that applies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is also important to put the \u201csell off\u201d into perspective.&nbsp; Even at today\u2019s lows we had only given back last week\u2019s post-FOMC rally.&nbsp; Yes, we\u2019re back to levels not seen since less than a week ago, as the following graph shows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-day-chart-spx-red-green-5-minute-bars-ndx-blue-line\"><strong><em>6-Day Chart, SPX (red\/green 5-minute bars), NDX (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture3-4.png\" alt=\"6-Day Chart, SPX (red\/green 5-minute bars), NDX (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-192335 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture3-4.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture3-4-700x433.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture3-4-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture3-4-768x475.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we look back to early May, we see just how modest the current pullback is \u2013 especially in the case of NDX:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>32-Day Chart (since May 5<sup>th<\/sup>), SPX (red\/green hourly bars), NDX (blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-8.png\" alt=\"32-Day Chart (since May 5th), SPX (red\/green hourly bars), NDX (blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-192334 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-8.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-8-700x433.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-8-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-8-768x475.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we see how far NDX has run in a short period of time \u2013 roughly 17% in about six weeks \u2013 it should be unsurprising that the magnitude of the pullback in that index is relatively larger.&nbsp; Simply put, there are more profits to take.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/optimism-vs-pessimism-or-stocks-vs-bonds\/\">In yesterday&#8217;s piece<\/a> we attempted to reconcile the divergent viewpoints of the stock and bond markets.&nbsp; Simply put, stock investors are inherently optimistic, thinking about potential upside gains; bond investors are inherently pessimistic, necessarily concerned about the factors that could interfere with receiving their promised payouts.&nbsp; While stocks were running higher, bond yields rose too (prices falling).&nbsp; The 2-year yield rose by about a full percentage point while the 10-year yield rose by about half that.&nbsp; The key inversion of those two rates has increased to just under a full percentage point, which indicates that the bond market fears an impending recession.&nbsp; Stocks of course are far less fearful.&nbsp; What we are seeing over the past few days is the market\u2019s attempt to reconcile that divergence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It might also be possible that we have fully incorporated the unintended monetary surge that occurred when the Fed intervened in the banking crisis.&nbsp; Their balance sheet expanded by $300 billion, which likely spurred some of the recent advance.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-asymmetries-of-fear-greed-and-monetary-policy\/\">We discussed the asymmetric response<\/a> of markets to liquidity increases \u2013 which are reflected quickly \u2013 versus liquidity decreases that operate with a long and variable lag.&nbsp; Now we are back to seeing balance sheet shrinkage once again.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"651\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-28.png\" alt=\"Federal Reserve Balance Sheet\" class=\"wp-image-192333 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-28.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-28-700x487.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-28-300x209.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-28-768x534.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/651;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source:&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/releases\/h41\/\"><strong><em>Federal Reserve H.4.1 reports<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>, Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, I believe that it is no coincidence that the most recent leg higher occurred as we approached a quarterly expiration.&nbsp; Furthermore, it is probably no coincidence that Friday\u2019s expiration was a bit of a dud.&nbsp; Once the AM expiring options were off the board, so was a major catalyst to the rally.&nbsp; While many market observers have rightfully become more focused on short-term options trading, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/do-monthly-options-expirations-still-matter\/\">major expirations still matter<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Could this current minor selloff metastasize into something more significant?&nbsp; Sure.&nbsp; Trend changes often start slowly and imperceptibly.&nbsp; The current level of VIX \u2013 13.42 \u2013 certainly tells us that there is little demand for hedging protection from institutions.&nbsp; Unfortunately, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/vix-doing-the-limbo-dance-how-low-can-we-go\/\">VIX can often be a contrarian indicator too<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vigilance is always a requirement of successful investing and trading.&nbsp; It is easy to forget that when stocks are rising.&nbsp; As of now, the recent declines should not be concerning, but they should also not be ignored.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s amazing how quickly we become accustomed to good news.  I have probably received more questions in the past two days about why stocks have been selling off than I did about why they were rallying during the past few weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":184932,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[4690,207],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-192332","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-selling","15":"tag-spx","16":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Three Days of Selling &#8211; Oh My! | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It\u2019s amazing how quickly we become accustomed to good news. 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