{"id":192146,"date":"2023-06-20T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-20T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=192146"},"modified":"2023-06-20T12:35:09","modified_gmt":"2023-06-20T16:35:09","slug":"powells-pause-or-powells-pit-stop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/powells-pause-or-powells-pit-stop\/","title":{"rendered":"Powell\u2019s Pause or Powell\u2019s Pit Stop?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/advisors\/insights\/category\/weekly-commentary\/\">Weekly Commentary<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-recap\">Market Recap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Equity markets rallied this week, with the AI-powered tech and communication services names still driving the gains. The S&amp;P 500 rose 2.6%, with technology leading the pack up 4.4%. Not to name names, but the blowup in valuations for a select group of companies has now powered technology 41% higher this year, while communication services are not far behind, up 36%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Meantime, the TSX continues to lag, up 0.4% on the week as gains in consumer discretionary and technology were partly offset by declines in utilities and energy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It\u2019s no secret that the Canadian index has been stuck in a range all year (+3% so far in 2023) even as the S&amp;P 500 has broken out above last summer\u2019s high (+14.8% in 2023). From a simple valuation perspective, at around 13x forward earnings versus 19x-plus in the U.S., Canada has rarely looked this cheap on a relative basis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fed-pause\">Fed Pause<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve followed through on its much-anticipated pause on rate hikes, declining to raise interest rates for the first time in 15 months. The pause had been widely anticipated, but a rate hike could have also made sense based on the underlying data\u2014the decision to pause was dovish, but the dot plot was quite hawkish. In his comments, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hedged, emphasising that the dot plot is based on today\u2019s expectations and not necessarily representative of what tomorrow will bring. He was also asked why the Fed doesn\u2019t just raise rates now if the dot plot is pointing toward two or more additional rate hikes down the road; his response was that it\u2019s no longer about getting rate hikes into the economy quickly but rather about the final destination. Pausing has the dual benefit of giving previous rate increases a chance to filter through the economy and giving the Fed a chance to see which way the data is trending. Still, the decision is somewhat confusing, as Powell reiterated that inflation remains stubbornly high while GDP and employment numbers are holding up better than expected. In our view, it\u2019s possible to interpret these comments just about any way you\u2019d like. Markets\u2019 reaction seemed to reflect uncertainty, selling off right after the announcement and then rebounding during Powell\u2019s comments, ending up in neutral or slightly positive territory depending on which market you were looking at. Ultimately, we don\u2019t think this is necessarily going to be a long pause; rather, it\u2019s a pit stop, with the Fed likely thinking that they\u2019ll need to do more, but wanting to take some time to examine the situation before committing to further increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>The Fed\u2019s pause is not necessarily the end of the rate hiking cycle, and it\u2019s increasingly unlikely that there will be rate cuts in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-housing\">Housing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>How will the Fed\u2019s move affect the U.S. housing market, and where does it leave consumer? It\u2019s no surprise that on the consumer front, people were hoping for rate cuts. That\u2019s not likely to happen any time soon, so this does put more pressure on consumers to tighten their belts. In good news, the supply side is improving and inflation is coming down, so people will get some relief from that. But the cost of borrowing is still going to be expensive. If this isn\u2019t the end of the rate hiking cycle, there\u2019s still the chance that U.S. consumer debt levels could go up, and that mortgage rates could rise. We do expect to see the U.S. housing market starting to bottom out if the Fed only has one more rate hike left this year, but two or more increases could cause it to move another leg lower. In Canada, the household service debt ratio is increasing, as is the debt-to-income ratio, with rate increases still a possibility. That\u2019s certainly not good news, but it\u2019s still manageable for the consumer because of the abundance of savings they can tap into. It\u2019s also worth remembering that in both Canada and the U.S, the supply of available housing is limited because if you sell, your options aren\u2019t great\u2014you either pay a fortune in rent or you buy a new home at today\u2019s mortgage rates. At your current rate, you might be able to afford a million-dollar home, but at higher rates, you might only be able to afford a home in the $700,000 range. There\u2019s no win there for the consumer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>With interest rates already around 5%, one more hike isn\u2019t likely to have a huge affect on the housing market, but more than one could change the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-playing-defense\">Playing Defense<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>When it comes time to circle the wagons, which sector makes the most sense for defensive positioning? Let\u2019s look at Consumer Staples vs. Consumer Discretionary as an example. The conventional thinking is that investors should consider tilting toward Staples rather than Discretionary because the economy is weakening, inflation is high, and job losses are occurring. Consumers will tighten their belts and shift their spending to Staples\u2014or so the reasoning goes. We agree that this kind of trade will make sense when a recession is nearer. But this cycle is different because of consumers\u2019 reservoir of personal savings from the pandemic. This creates a buffer for Consumer Discretionary that didn\u2019t exist in past recessionary cycles. As a result, Discretionary is holding up much better than one might have expected, and it\u2019s an exposure that is worth maintaining for the time being, especially with China\u2019s reopening boosting demand. U.S. Consumer Discretionary is interesting in that it includes companies like Amazon, which isn\u2019t really discretionary in the conventional sense, and also includes some Tech exposure. In a slow-moving downturn, you don\u2019t have to be completely defensive\u2014you can still play a little offense and maintain some measure of balance. When we see more negative news, like massive job losses, that\u2019s when it will be time to move to Staples. But we\u2019re just not seeing that yet. The recession has already been punted to 2024, and there\u2019s no reason it can\u2019t be pushed out further. In our view, investors should only pivot to defensive sectors like Consumer Staples when the recession is about three months away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:<\/strong>As long as the consumer continues to hold up fairly well, we wouldn\u2019t recommend a massive tilt to Consumer Staples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-positioning\">Positioning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A detailed breakdown of our portfolio positioning is available in the latest BMO GAM House View Report, titled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/assets.bmofundcentral.com\/pdfs\/BMO_Monthly_House-View_Report_JUNE_E.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Know When to Hold \u2019Em<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted June 19, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/advisors\/insights\/weekly-commentary-june-19-2023-powells-pause-or-powells-pit-stop\/\">Powell\u2019s Pause\u2014or Powell\u2019s Pit Stop?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Disclosures:<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The viewpoints expressed by the Portfolio Manager represents their assessment of the markets at the time of publication. Those views are subject to change without notice at any time without any kind of notice. The information provided herein does not constitute a solicitation of an offer to buy, or an offer to sell securities nor should the information be relied upon as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This communication is intended for informational purposes only.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMO Global Asset Management is a brand name under which BMO Asset Management Inc. and BMO Investments Inc. operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are cautioned not to rely unduly on any forward-looking statements. In connection with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the areas of risk described in the most recent simplified prospectus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article is for information purposes. The information contained herein is not, and should not be construed as, investment, tax or legal advice to any party. Investments should be evaluated relative to the individual\u2019s investment objectives and professional advice should be obtained with respect to any circumstance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Commissions, management fees and expenses (if applicable) all may be associated with investments in mutual funds. Trailing commissions may be associated with investments in certain series of securities of mutual funds. Please read the fund facts, ETF facts or prospectus of the relevant mutual fund before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and\/or elimination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a summary of the risks of an investment in the BMO Mutual Funds, please see the specific risks set out in the prospectus. ETF Series of the BMO Mutual Funds trade like stocks, fluctuate in market value and may trade at a discount to their net asset value, which may increase the risk of loss. Distributions are not guaranteed and are subject to change and\/or elimination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>BMO Mutual Funds are managed by BMO Investments Inc., which is an investment fund manager and a separate legal entity from Bank of Montreal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00ae\/\u2122Registered trademarks\/trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under licence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Equity markets rallied this week, with the AI-powered tech and communication services names still driving the gains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":919,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[12546,3598,2298,14827],"contributors-categories":[13733],"class_list":{"0":"post-192146","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-fed-pause","13":"tag-market-outlook","14":"tag-market-recap","15":"tag-weekly-commentary","16":"contributors-categories-bmo-exchange-traded-funds"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Powell\u2019s Pause or Powell\u2019s Pit Stop? 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