{"id":191931,"date":"2023-06-13T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-13T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191931"},"modified":"2023-06-14T09:58:15","modified_gmt":"2023-06-14T13:58:15","slug":"i-dont-want-to-spoil-the-cpi-party","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/i-dont-want-to-spoil-the-cpi-party\/","title":{"rendered":"I Don\u2019t Want to Spoil the CPI Party"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Yesterday we discussed whether momentum trading should really be considered inertia trading, because a market in motion tends to stay in motion unless acted upon by a force.&nbsp; We had a potential market-moving force this morning in the form of CPI, but the in-line report was clearly not enough to disrupt the positive motion of US equities.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The month-over-month reports were as expected: +0.1% for headline CPI, +0.4% for core.&nbsp; The year-over-year numbers were also close enough: +4.0% for headline (vs. +4.1% expected), and +5.3% for core (vs. 5.2% expected).&nbsp; Interestingly, the actual CPI index was slightly higher than expected at 304.127 (vs. 304.075), so I\u2019m not sure how the year-over-year headline number was less than expected (unless there was a minor inconsistency in the estimates), but the slight beat was good enough to amplify the ongoing good feelings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throw in some better-than-expected results from Oracle (ORCL), which is up over 2% this morning, though a bit lower than its 6.5% jump on the open.&nbsp; The stock was up nearly 6% yesterday in anticipation, but liberal use of the term AI in their conference call was enough to allow the price to ramp even further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tomorrow brings perhaps the most significant potential market-moving force.&nbsp; We\u2019re keeping an eye on the PPI report, but of course the FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference are the key factors.&nbsp; Thanks to today\u2019s CPI report, Fed Funds futures are now pricing in only a 10% chance for a hike tomorrow, down from 25% yesterday.&nbsp; This Fed has shown little interest in surprising the market, so it is more than reasonable to think that a <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/skippy-and-a-different-jump\/\">skip or a pause<\/a> (choose your <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-fomc-cha-cha-skip-hike-pause-pivot\/\">preferred terminology<\/a>) is in the cards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It will then come down to whether Chair Powell offers cheery or gloomy rhetoric at his post-meeting press conference.&nbsp; It is sobering to think that the fate of the markets rest upon whether \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-is-a-68-year-old-man-in-a-suit\/\">Goldilocks in a Suit<\/a>\u201d or \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-stop-doubting-my-resolve-to-cool-the-porridge\/\">Jackson Hole<\/a>\u201d Powell makes an appearance.&nbsp;&nbsp; Much depends upon whether the FOMC believes that the investor enthusiasm is helping or hurting the Fed\u2019s fight against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One other thing to keep in mind is that the Fed is far more focused on core inflation than the headline number.&nbsp; A 0.1% monthly print on headline inflation is clearly in synch with declining inflationary pressures and a 2% target.&nbsp; A 0.4% monthly print on the core is not.&nbsp; Furthermore, many economists annualize the 2- or 3-month change in Core CPI as a better proxy for current inflationary trends.&nbsp; For better or worse, those measures are close to 5%.&nbsp; If we look at the PCE Core Deflator on that basis, those measures are a little over 4%.&nbsp; On that basis, a hike may not be in the cards for tomorrow, but it would be quite surprising if the messaging is such that it takes a future hike off the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have also noted how VIX is mired in the mid to low teens.&nbsp; When we\u2019re in a steady uptrend with little volatility or perceived need for protection, that is to be expected.&nbsp; <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/vix-doing-the-limbo-dance-how-low-can-we-go\/\">We noted that recency bias<\/a> is a key factor in the expectations that are inherent in the VIX calculation.&nbsp; Quite frankly, if there\u2019s a drought, who needs umbrellas?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet if we are using the past as prologue, investors might need to express a bit more concern.&nbsp; The chart below shows the moves in SPX around the FOMC meetings that have occurred since we have entered a rate-hiking cycle:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"510\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-19.png\" alt=\"1 and 3 day changes after previous FOMC meetings\" class=\"wp-image-191934 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-19.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-19-700x381.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-19-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-19-768x418.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/510;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If recent history is a guide, it is reasonable to expect that markets to have a relatively substantial percentage move over the coming days.&nbsp; Bear in mind that Friday is a quarterly expiration, and we have seen even more volatility during expiration weeks than in typical FOMC weeks. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ahead of the last FOMC meeting, we noted how the then-low 15.5 VIX seemed <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/nowhere-man\/\">unreasonably sanguine<\/a> ahead of the upcoming event.&nbsp; Just three days later, VIX was six points higher.&nbsp; The reason was that Powell was relatively dour.&nbsp; And that week had the smallest post-FOMC high-low range we\u2019ve seen in over two years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019ve noted how VIX has <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-asymmetries-of-fear-greed-and-monetary-policy\/\">an asymmetric response<\/a> to events.&nbsp; There is nothing to guarantee that VIX will pop once again in the aftermath of the upcoming FOMC meeting.&nbsp; If markets are happy with the Chair, then VIX could be expected to drift further down.&nbsp; But if Powell reaffirms the message that core inflation, while improved, is nowhere close to the Fed\u2019s 2% target, the response from VIX could be sharp.&nbsp; In my mind, that\u2019s a one-tailed bet.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We had a potential market-moving force this morning in the form of CPI, but the in-line report was clearly not enough to disrupt the positive motion of US equities.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":191936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[217,9362,314,570],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-191931","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-cpi","15":"tag-economic-outlook","16":"tag-fomc","17":"tag-inflation","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO 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