{"id":191867,"date":"2023-06-12T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-12T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191867"},"modified":"2023-06-12T12:16:34","modified_gmt":"2023-06-12T16:16:34","slug":"sugar-early-stage-of-a-major-downtrend","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/sugar-early-stage-of-a-major-downtrend\/","title":{"rendered":"Sugar: Early Stage of a Major Downtrend?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Over the first four months of the year, sugar prices rose 48%. While tight near-term global supply of white (processed) sugar provided support, the main factor came from India. As mills ran out of cane to crush, analysts dialed back their forecasts for India\u2019s 2022\/23 sugar production. India\u2019s government then announced that they would not allow any more exports of raw sugar over the rest of the 2022\/23 season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After a failed retest of the 2023 high in mid-May, October sugar turned to the downside. This move coincided with the market\u2019s supply focus shifting towards Brazil, which has been the world\u2019s largest sugar producing nation in three of the past four years. Many of Brazil\u2019s Center-South mills started their operations earlier than normal this year to process late-harvested cane from last season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From April through mid-May, Brazil\u2019s Center-South cane crush was 24% larger than last year. During the same period, sugar\u2019s share of the cane crush was 7.1% above last year, as the decline in gasoline and crude oil prices provided lowered the incentive for ethanol production. This brought overall sugar production to 48% above last year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most of Brazil\u2019s production increase will be exported. This could help offset any supply shortfall from India, the EU and China. El Ni\u00f1o could negatively impact India\u2019s 2023\/24 output, but India\u2019s government are unlikely to have a full-season embargo on sugar exports, as their production total is expected come above their domestic consumption by several million tonnes. Sugar prices remain overvalued at their current levels and could see a significant decline over the next few months. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"718\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110604.png\" alt=\"Brazil sugar production thousand metric tonnes by crop year\" class=\"wp-image-191868 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110604.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110604-700x479.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110604-300x205.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110604-768x525.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/718;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1044\" height=\"717\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110650.png\" alt=\"world sugar production 2023\/24 season by % share\" class=\"wp-image-191869 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110650.png 1044w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110650-700x481.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110650-300x206.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110650-768x527.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1044px) 100vw, 1044px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1044px; aspect-ratio: 1044\/717;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<pre class=\"wp-block-preformatted\">Originally Published June 9, 2023 <\/pre>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As mills ran out of cane to crush, analysts dialed back their forecasts for India\u2019s 2022\/23 sugar production. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":94,"featured_media":191869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,21,5,6,8,9,1031,26,3],"tags":[147,772],"contributors-categories":[13645],"class_list":{"0":"post-191867","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-commodities","9":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-south-america","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-commodities","17":"tag-sugar","18":"contributors-categories-the-hightower-report"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/sugar-early-stage-of-a-major-downtrend\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-06-12T16:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-110650.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1044\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"717\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"David Hightower\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"David Hightower\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" 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