{"id":191843,"date":"2023-06-12T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-12T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191843"},"modified":"2023-06-12T10:27:02","modified_gmt":"2023-06-12T14:27:02","slug":"weekly-market-recap-june-12-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-june-12-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: June 12, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>May services ISM fell to 50.3 from 51.9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trade deficit widened to $74.6 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core durable goods fell 0.3% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial jobless claims increased to 261k from 232k<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Industrial production<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday, the Fed should provide more clarity on the trajectory of rates after vacillation in market expectations over the past month, which we illustrate in this week\u2019s chart. As of Friday, the federal funds futures market was pricing in a 28% probability of a hike in June and a 54% chance of a skip in June followed by a hike in July. Since the FOMC last met, expectations have oscillated due to resilient growth, moderating inflation, diminished threats from regional banking turmoil, a solution to the debt ceiling standoff and mixed messages in the public pronouncements of Fed officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given a gradual slowdown in growth and inflation and the fact that we have yet to see the full effect of the cumulative 500bps of hikes so far, the Fed would be well advised to pause at this point. Nevertheless, another hike is still clearly on the table and, if the Fed doesn\u2019t hike this week, Chairman Powell will likely emphasize that skipping a rate hike now does not necessarily imply that the Fed is done raising rates. However, regardless of the Fed\u2019s decision and messaging this week, we expect to see rate cuts within the next year that should improve the backdrop for investors across a broad range of assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"442\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092312-1100x442.png\" alt=\"market expectations for June and July FOMC meetings\" class=\"wp-image-191844 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092312-1100x442.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092312-700x281.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092312-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092312-768x309.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092312.png 1257w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/442;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"532\" height=\"103\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092351.png\" alt=\"chart and thought of the week sources\" class=\"wp-image-191845 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092351.png 532w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-12-092351-300x58.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 532px) 100vw, 532px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 532px; aspect-ratio: 532\/103;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted June 12, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., June 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of June 12, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Given a gradual slowdown in growth and inflation and the fact that we have yet to see the full effect of the cumulative 500bps of hikes so far, the Fed would be well advised to pause at this point.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":191844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-191843","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-macro","14":"tag-market-recap","15":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: June 12, 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