{"id":19182,"date":"2019-09-23T12:00:21","date_gmt":"2019-09-23T16:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=19182"},"modified":"2022-11-21T09:44:15","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T14:44:15","slug":"what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\/","title":{"rendered":"What is the EUR Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y Signalling?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The European Central Bank (ECB) uses the 5-year, 5-year EUR\ninflation swap rate to measure Eurozone-wide inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before the ECB meeting on\nSeptember 12<sup>th<\/sup>, European 5y5y inflation swaps were trading at 1.26%.\nFollowing the announcement of a cut to the deposit rate and the reintroduction\nof Quantitative Easing (\u201cQE\u201d), the inflation swap peaked at 1.32%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After today\u2019s European PMI\ndata, which fueled further recessionary concerns, the benchmark inflation swap\ntraded as low as 1.20%. Our interpretation is that the market does not believe\nQE is \u201ctruly\u201d open-ended or will generate higher inflation. Therefore, further\nweak economic data could lead to inflation expectations becoming un-anchored if\nQE lasts for less than one year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a yardstick, the trough\nlevel for this key inflation measure was 1.14% before ECB President Draghi\nspoke in June at Sintra. We believe a break of this trough level \u2013 1.14% \u2013 &nbsp;would\nsignal that investors demand more from the ECB, including more deposit rate\ncuts and a larger monthly asset purchase amount with no time limit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong>: <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This inflation measure should be watched closely as a proxy for a weaker euro exchange rate or lower European fixed-income yields, especially the German BUXL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"672\" height=\"218\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/09\/rv1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-19183 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/09\/rv1.jpg 672w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/09\/rv1-400x130.jpg 400w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 672px) 100vw, 672px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 672px; aspect-ratio: 672\/218;\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The European Central Bank (ECB) uses the 5-year, 5-year EUR inflation swap rate to measure Eurozone-wide inflation.  Before the ECB meeting on September 12th, European 5yr5\/yr inflation swaps were trading at 1.26%. Following the announcement of a cut to the deposit rate cut and the reintroduction of Quantitative Easing (\u201cQE\u201d), the inflation swap peaked at 1.32%. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":133,"featured_media":19183,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,15,16,18,8,9,26,3],"tags":[684,4203,570,584],"contributors-categories":[13621],"class_list":{"0":"post-19182","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-forex","10":"category-macro","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ecb","16":"tag-european-bank","17":"tag-inflation","18":"tag-rate","19":"contributors-categories-rareview-macro"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What is the EUR Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y Signalling?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The European Central Bank (ECB) uses the 5-year, 5-year EUR inflation swap rate to measure Eurozone-wide inflation. 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Following the announcement of a cut to the deposit rate cut and the reintroduction of Quantitative Easing (\u201cQE\u201d), the inflation swap peaked at 1.32%.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-09-23T16:00:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-11-21T14:44:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/09\/rv1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"672\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"218\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Neil Azous\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Neil Azous\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Neil Azous\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/995ebce42d52d277cb650c2eb8935382\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"What is the EUR Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y Signalling?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2019-09-23T16:00:21+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2022-11-21T14:44:15+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 202,\n\t            \"publisher\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#organization\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/2\\\/2019\\\/09\\\/rv1.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"ECB\",\n\t                \"European bank\",\n\t                \"inflation\",\n\t                \"rate\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Europe, the Middle East and Africa\",\n\t                \"Fixed Income\",\n\t                \"Forex\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\"\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-is-the-eur-inflation-swap-forward-5y5y-signalling\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"What is the EUR Inflation Swap Forward 5Y5Y Signalling? 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