{"id":191783,"date":"2023-06-09T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-09T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191783"},"modified":"2023-06-09T12:05:06","modified_gmt":"2023-06-09T16:05:06","slug":"will-selling-in-may-work-this-year-maybe-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/will-selling-in-may-work-this-year-maybe-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Selling in May Work This Year? Maybe Not"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\"><strong>Key takeaways:<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>With stocks struggling to break out of their range, rates climbing, and valuations stretched investors are rightly asking whether it\u2019s time to sell.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Russ Koesterich, CFA, JD, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager of the Global Allocation team explains why \u201csell in May and go away\u201d may not work this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With stocks struggling to break out of their range, rates climbing, and valuations stretched investors are rightly asking whether it\u2019s time to sell. The calendar only adds to these concerns. But while there is some truth to the adage, \u2018Sell in May and go away,\u2019 seasonality tends to be less relevant than market momentum, which currently favors stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although the effects are often exaggerated, seasonality is worth watching. Over the long term, there is ample evidence that returns are impacted by the time of year. For example, the S&amp;P 500\u2019s average monthly price return since its origin in the 1920s between May and September is 0.40%, roughly half the average of the other months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The seasonal effect has become even stronger in the modern era. Since 1987, monthly returns have averaged approximately 0.20% between the end of April and end of September. In contrast, other months produce average price returns of 1.10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The relationship is also evident outside of the United States. Using the MSCI World Index of developed countries, average monthly price returns were nominally negative between May and September. For the other periods, monthly returns averaged slightly more than 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-momentum-typically-overcomes-seasonality\">Momentum typically overcomes seasonality<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All that said, there is one important caveat: The seasonal effect tends to be weaker than market momentum. As I have discussed in previous blogs, weak summer seasonality is less obvious in years when stocks are up going into May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When year-to-date returns are negative through April, there is some benefit in trimming equity positions. In negative years the market generally treads water over the summer, producing an average price return of about -1%. However, in years when the S&amp;P 500 is up coming into May, the S&amp;P 500 averages a 3% advance between May and September. With virtually every stock market up solidly year-to-date, momentum is favoring stocks.(see Chart 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"704\" height=\"530\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-09-103433.png\" alt=\"US Dollar vs Local currency\" class=\"wp-image-191784 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-09-103433.png 704w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-09-103433-700x527.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-09-103433-300x226.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 704px) 100vw, 704px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 704px; aspect-ratio: 704\/530;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Refinitiv Datastream, MSCI and BlackRock Investment Institute. May 29, 2023.Notes: The bars show the performance of MSCI country indexes in U.S. \u2013 dollar terms to date. The dots show the performance in local currency. The markets shown are the largest 25 by market cap as of June 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The difference between up and down years also seems to impact how often the market advances during the summer months. In years when the market has posted a negative return during the first four months of the year, stocks advance less than 60% of the time during the subsequent five months. However, if stocks are up into May, the market advances nearly 80% of the time during the summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-volatility-doesn-t-mean-exit\">Volatility doesn\u2019t mean exit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nuances in seasonality coupled with longer-term trends suggest managing risk rather than abandoning stocks. As I discussed back in January, years following down ones tend to be volatile, with the market either rising or falling more than average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So far, it\u2019s been a good year for investors. And while the summer months are rarely the best ones, if history is a guide, both last year\u2019s sell-off and this year\u2019s momentum suggest maintaining equity exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/us\/individual\/biographies\/russ-koesterich\"><em>Russ Koesterich<\/em><\/a><em>, CFA, is a Portfolio Manager for<\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em>BlackRock&#8217;s Global Allocation Fund&nbsp;<em>and the lead portfolio manager on the GA Selects model portfolio strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted June 8, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/us\/individual\/insights\/sell-in-may\">Will Selling in May Work This Year? Maybe Not<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup> 2023 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Carefully consider the Funds&#8217; investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. This and other information can be found in the Funds&#8217; prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares Fund and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of June 2023 and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this post are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by BlackRock, its officers, employees or agents. This post may contain \u201cforward-looking\u201d information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this post is at the sole discretion of the reader.&nbsp;<strong>Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only. You cannot invest directly in an index.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The BlackRock Model Portfolios are provided for illustrative and educational purposes only, do not constitute research, investment advice or a fiduciary investment recommendation from BlackRock to any client of a third party financial advisor (each, a &#8220;Financial Advisor&#8221;), and are intended for use only by such Financial Advisor as a resource to help build a portfolio or as an input in the development of investment advice from such Financial Advisor to its own clients and shall not be the sole or primary basis for such Financial Advisor\u2019s recommendation and\/or decision. Such Financial Advisors are responsible for making their own independent fiduciary judgment as to how to use the BlackRock Model Portfolios and\/or whether to implement any trades for their clients. BlackRock does not have investment discretion over, or place trade orders for, any portfolios or accounts derived from the BlackRock Model Portfolios. BlackRock is not responsible for determining the appropriateness or suitability of the BlackRock Model Portfolios or any of the securities included therein for any client of a Financial Advisor. Information and other marketing materials provided by BlackRock concerning the BlackRock Model Portfolios \u2013including holdings, performance, and other characteristics \u2013may vary materially from any portfolios or accounts derived from the BlackRock Model Portfolios. Any performance shown for the BlackRock Model Portfolios does not include brokerage fees, commissions, or any overlay fee for portfolio management, which would further reduce returns. There is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful or achieve any particular level of results. The BlackRock Model Portfolios themselves are not funds. The BlackRock Model Portfolios, allocations, and data are subject to change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For financial professionals:<\/strong>&nbsp;BlackRock\u2019s role is limited to providing you or your firm (collectively, the \u201cAdvisor\u201d) with non-discretionary investment advice in the form of model portfolios in connection with its management of its clients\u2019 accounts. The implementation of, or reliance on, a Managed Portfolio Strategy is left to the discretion of the Advisor. BlackRock is not responsible for determining the securities to be purchased, held and sold for a client\u2019s account(s), nor is BlackRock responsible for determining the suitability or appropriateness of a Managed Portfolio Strategy or any securities included therein for any of the Advisor\u2019s clients. BlackRock does not place trade orders for any of the Advisor\u2019s clients\u2019 account(s). Information and other marketing materials provided to you by BlackRock concerning a Managed Portfolio Strategy\u2014including holdings, performance and other characteristics\u2013may not be indicative of a client\u2019s actual experience from an account managed in accordance with the strategy.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>For investors:<\/strong>&nbsp;BlackRock\u2019s role is limited to providing your Advisor with non-discretionary investment advice in the form of model portfolios in connection with its management of its clients\u2019 accounts. The implementation of, or reliance on, a Managed Portfolio Strategy is left to the discretion of your Advisor. BlackRock is not responsible for determining the securities to be purchased, held and sold for your account(s), nor is BlackRock responsible for determining the suitability or appropriateness of a Managed Portfolio Strategy or any securities included therein. BlackRock does not place trade orders for any Managed Portfolio Strategy account. Information and other marketing materials provided to you by BlackRock concerning a Managed Portfolio Strategy\u2014including holdings, performance and other characteristics\u2014may not be indicative of a client\u2019s actual experience from an account managed in accordance with the strategy. This material is subject to change.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prepared by BlackRock Investments, Inc. LLC. Member FINRA<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>2023 BlackRock, Inc or its affiliates. All rights reserved.&nbsp;<strong>BLACKROCK<\/strong>&nbsp;is a trademark of BlackRock, Inc. or its affiliates. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USRRMH0623U\/S-2935077<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russ Koesterich, CFA, JD, Managing Director and Portfolio Manager of the Global Allocation team explains why \u201csell in May and go away\u201d may not work this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":191784,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[15173,44,860],"contributors-categories":[13587],"class_list":["post-191783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-sell-in-may-effect","tag-stocks","tag-volatility","contributors-categories-blackrock"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will Selling in May Work This Year? 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