{"id":191499,"date":"2023-06-06T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-06T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191499"},"modified":"2023-06-06T12:19:04","modified_gmt":"2023-06-06T16:19:04","slug":"keeping-an-eye-on-the-russell-2000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/keeping-an-eye-on-the-russell-2000\/","title":{"rendered":"Keeping an Eye on the Russell 2000"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There has been no shortage of hand-wringing about the narrow leadership of the current rally \u2013 <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/taco-tuesday-widening-wednesday\/\">myself included<\/a>.&nbsp; Although the majority of <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/today-in-gloomy-charts\/\">the divergences<\/a> remain largely in place, an interesting development has been taking place over recent sessions.&nbsp; The best performing US index has been the most broad-based and economically sensitive of all \u2013 the Russell 2000 (RTY).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To put it plainly, RTY has been ripping since Thursday.&nbsp; It\u2019s clearly not a long-term trend, but its outperformance \u2013 particularly since Friday \u2013 has been stunning.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-week-chart-spx-red-green-5-minute-bars-rty-june-futures-purple-line\"><strong><em>1-Week Chart, SPX (red\/green 5-minute bars), RTY June Futures (purple line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-3.png\" alt=\"1-Week Chart, SPX (red\/green 5-minute bars), RTY June Futures (purple line)\" class=\"wp-image-191502 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-3.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-3-700x433.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-3-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture2-3-768x475.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Thursday, RTY roughly matched SPX\u2019s 1% rise.&nbsp; But on Friday, RTY\u2019s 3.56% leap far outpaced SPX\u2019s 1.45%, and as I write this, RTY is up 2.7% with SPX up 0.23%.&nbsp;&nbsp; That said, RTY has been a major laggard over the past few months:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>1-Year Chart, SPX (red\/green daily bars), RTY (grey\/blue line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"680\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-8-1100x680.png\" alt=\"1-Year Chart, SPX (red\/green daily bars), RTY (grey\/blue line)\" class=\"wp-image-191501 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-8-1100x680.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-8-700x433.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-8-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-8-768x475.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Picture1-8.png 1430w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/680;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is indeed welcome to see a rally broaden, but we have to wonder whether this is simply momentum traders cashing in and attempting to move into laggards rather than a meaningful vote about smaller stock outperformance.&nbsp; That the best performing sector today is regional banking, the poster child for recent underperformance, is a sign that the former may be the case.&nbsp; There is little fundamental reason for a 5% rally in that group, so it is undoubtedly a sector that has notable room to play catch up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regarding smaller stocks, they tend to outperform when the economy is robust.&nbsp; The logic for investing in RTY is essentially the polar opposite of the rationale for chasing large tech stocks.&nbsp; Even prior to the recent AI enthusiasm, the largest tech stocks were benefitting from the notion that their franchises were perceived as impenetrable in a slow-growth economy.&nbsp; Ask yourself now if the economic climate appears to be changing sufficiently to raise the tide for smaller stocks, many of which are unprofitable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is certainly nothing wrong with finding underperforming stocks and sectors.&nbsp; It\u2019s what traders have been doing essentially forever, and pretty much the definition of \u201cbuy low, sell high\u201d \u2013 at least when they rotate from the outperformers to the underperformers.&nbsp; The key decision becomes how far to chase the former underperformers when they pick up steam.&nbsp; If there is a solid investment thesis behind the sector in question, the timeframe for joining the fray is lengthened.&nbsp; If the logic is simply that there has been a temporary lag, then one needs to be quite careful about timing one\u2019s exit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s see if there is real follow-through in the sectoral plays.&nbsp; If investment capital acknowledges that smaller stocks are investable asset in the current climate, then this would be a key sign of health for the equity markets.&nbsp; Yet we only see modest improvement so far in the advance\/decline lines.&nbsp; They\u2019ve stopped falling, but their rise is hardly commensurate with SPX and NDX, let alone RTY.&nbsp; For now, we\u2019re encouraged by the recent change in leadership, but think it\u2019s premature to say that it is much more than the latest trend for aggressive traders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Although the majority of the divergences remain largely in place, an interesting development has been taking place over recent sessions.  The best performing US index has been the most broad-based and economically sensitive of all \u2013 the Russell 2000 (RTY)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":186549,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[3559,4109,44,15392],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-191499","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-russell-2000","tag-stock-market","tag-stocks","tag-us-index","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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