{"id":191485,"date":"2023-06-06T11:40:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-06T15:40:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191485"},"modified":"2023-06-06T11:57:01","modified_gmt":"2023-06-06T15:57:01","slug":"charting-my-interruption-cmi-mega-capsmaking-equities-great-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/charting-my-interruption-cmi-mega-capsmaking-equities-great-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Charting My Interruption (CMI): &#8220;MEGA &#8216;Caps&#8217;&#8230;Making Equities Great Again&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>The MEGA \u201cCaps\u201d are&nbsp;Making&nbsp;Equities&nbsp;Great&nbsp;Again!!!&nbsp;<\/strong>The 10 largest companies have been making headlines of late, as they have driven more than 80% of the S&amp;P\u2019s year to date return. After a more than 1 year old bear market, this force of nature has elevated an index that, without them would be hovering near its 2023 starting point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"753\" height=\"599\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MEGA-vs-MKT3.jpg\" alt=\"The MEGAs vs the S&amp;P\" class=\"wp-image-191486 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MEGA-vs-MKT3.jpg 753w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MEGA-vs-MKT3-700x557.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MEGA-vs-MKT3-300x239.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 753px) 100vw, 753px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 753px; aspect-ratio: 753\/599;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Just prior to blasting off in January, the MEGA \u201cCaps\u201d had just landed their rocket ship on \u201cterra firma\u201d after soaring into the stratosphere during the COVID bull market.&nbsp;<\/strong>Figure 1 shows the performance of a hypothetical portfolio that buys the 10 largest companies in the S&amp;P since 2000, the peak of the last secular bull run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In essence, the MEGA \u201cCaps\u201d have made no progress vs the S&amp;P over this period (see table, inset).&nbsp;<\/strong>In fact, after their crash landing in 2022, the MEGA \u201cCaps\u201d were trading virtually inline with the S&amp;P.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Intuitively, it makes sense that the \u201claw of large numbers\u201d eventually presents a performance challenge to the MEGA \u201cCaps\u201d.&nbsp;<\/strong>Once they have achieved a certain size, it becomes very difficult to continue to produce market leading gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"811\" height=\"593\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MGT-vs-the-Rest-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-191488 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MGT-vs-the-Rest-1.jpg 811w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MGT-vs-the-Rest-1-700x512.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MGT-vs-the-Rest-1-300x219.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/MGT-vs-the-Rest-1-768x562.jpg 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 811px) 100vw, 811px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 811px; aspect-ratio: 811\/593;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>We have touched on this theme in recent notes, referring to our MAANAGeMeNT Index, which is an acronym for today\u2019s top 10 MEGA \u201cCaps\u201d.&nbsp;<\/strong>Today\u2019s breadth readings present a hopeful message that the lagging small caps may be set to finally join the party. While the MAANAGeMeNT Index was up a meager +0.37% today, the average stock in the 2500 stock MOTR Universe surged +2.99%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>As Figure 2 demonstrates, this unfortunately does not change the overall picture as of yet, since the Value Line Average (blue line) is still very much range-bound, even after today\u2019s massive gain.<\/strong>&nbsp;Still, 90% of stocks advanced, and although we only saw just over 400 base breakouts today, over half of them were actual trend reversals, so that is a good indication of structural improvement at the margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>We will have more to say about this in Monday\u2019s Weekly MOTR Report (WMR), but for now, our strategy holds firm.&nbsp;<\/strong>We continue to build our long exposure in the top four leadership sectors (Technology, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Health Care), while largely avoiding the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Our short exposure is very low, but per&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/motrcmr.com\/chart\/charting-my-interruption-cmi-maanagement-vs-employees-the-tension-grows\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">last week\u2019s CMI<\/a>, if this surge in breadth does not result in sufficient trend change, we will increase our short exposure once again.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted June 2, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/motrcmr.com\/chart\/charting-my-interruption-cmi-mega-caps-making-equities-great-again\/\">Charting My Interruption (CMI): \u201cMEGA \u2018Caps\u2019\u2026Making Equities Great Again!!\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 10 largest companies have been making headlines of late, as they have driven more than 80% of the S&#038;P\u2019s year to date return.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":897,"featured_media":191488,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[10782,44],"contributors-categories":[15282],"class_list":{"0":"post-191485","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-mega-cap-2","14":"tag-stocks","15":"contributors-categories-motr-capital-management-and-research"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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