{"id":191375,"date":"2023-06-05T11:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-05T15:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191375"},"modified":"2023-06-05T11:18:20","modified_gmt":"2023-06-05T15:18:20","slug":"weekly-market-recap-june-5-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-june-5-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: June 5, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumer confidence fell to 102.3 in May<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JOLTS openings rose to 10.1M in April<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls increased 339,000<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Services ISM<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, investors received a large bundle of data related to the jobs market. There is some indication of future weakness, but overall the jobs data mosaic points to normalization at a gradual pace. The May employment report showed a net creation of 339,000 jobs, above expectations and an uptick compared to April\u2019s 264,000. Some signs of softness included a move higher of 0.3% in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. In addition, wage growth eased to 0.3% m\/m, bringing the year-over-year rate down to 4.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The April JOLTS data was also mixed: job openings were surprisingly high, moving up to 10.1M, the first increase this year and still significantly above the 2019 average. On the other hand, the quits rate fell to 2.4%, its lowest level since February 2021, edging closer to the 2019 average. This signals that workers feel less comfortable leaving their jobs or that the quality of jobs available is potentially declining. Overall, the labor market is showing signs of stabilization rather than weakness, bolstering the possibility of a soft landing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, spikes in unemployment have significantly lagged the onset of rate hikes. However, given the speed and intensity of the recent tightening regime, it would not have been surprising to see a greater rise in jobless claims and layoffs already taking shape. The labor tightness created by the pandemic recovery may be helping the job market avoid any sudden drop-offs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We think recent data supports a Fed pause at the June meeting, as it waits to see which way the labor market data breaks: normalization or a bigger slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1013\" height=\"404\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-100956.png\" alt=\"JOLTS data are normalizing gradually\" class=\"wp-image-191377 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-100956.png 1013w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-100956-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-100956-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-100956-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1013px) 100vw, 1013px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1013px; aspect-ratio: 1013\/404;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"485\" height=\"83\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-101026.png\" alt=\"chart of the week and thought of the week\" class=\"wp-image-191379 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-101026.png 485w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/06\/Screenshot-2023-06-05-101026-300x51.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 485px) 100vw, 485px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 485px; aspect-ratio: 485\/83;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted June 5, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2023 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., June 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of June 5, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overall, the labor market is showing signs of stabilization rather than weakness, bolstering the possibility of a soft landing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":191377,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2094,1685,2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-191375","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-jolts","14":"tag-macro","15":"tag-market-recap","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly 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