{"id":191290,"date":"2023-06-01T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-01T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191290"},"modified":"2023-06-01T13:30:31","modified_gmt":"2023-06-01T17:30:31","slug":"the-fomc-cha-cha-skip-hike-pause-pivot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/the-fomc-cha-cha-skip-hike-pause-pivot\/","title":{"rendered":"The FOMC Cha-Cha:\u00a0Skip, Hike, Pause, Pivot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>An unsurprising confession: I\u2019ve never been a big fan of line dancing.&nbsp; Yet the recent debate about the Federal Reserve\u2019s potential next moves struck me as the instructions to perhaps the world\u2019s lamest \u2013 but most critical \u2013 line dance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For much of the past few months, markets were hopeful that the FOMC would <em>pause <\/em>in its recent pattern of sequential rate hikes, then <em>pivot<\/em> to rate cuts for later in the year after a peak was reached.&nbsp; It was enough of a topic of conversation that in the aftermath of the March FOMC meeting, after a 25-basis point <em>hike<\/em>, we asserted that \u201c<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/peak-and-pause-do-not-mean-pivot\/\">peak and pause do not mean pivot<\/a>.\u201d&nbsp; Our logic then \u2013 as now \u2013 was that the Fed would be highly resistant to beginning a rate cutting cycle almost immediately after ending a hiking cycle.&nbsp; Unless of course, dire circumstances required a cut.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Our thinking was echoed just a few weeks later by Philadelphia Fed President Harker, who was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-04-11\/fed-s-harker-is-prepared-to-do-more-if-needed-to-curb-inflation?sref=UQoV8r0O#xj4y7vzkg\">quoted on April 11<sup>th<\/sup><\/a> as saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cBut at this point, I don\u2019t see why we would just continue to go up, up, up and then go, whoops! And then go down, down, down very quickly. Let\u2019s sit there.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As it turned out, the next step was indeed another hike.&nbsp; The FOMC raised rates another 25 bp at their meeting in early May.&nbsp; Correctly or not (we\u2019ll know for sure in the coming weeks), Fed Funds traders decided that we were done with rate hikes.&nbsp; A stable rate was priced in for June, and odds of a cut in July were greater than 50\/50.&nbsp; In other words, a pause and a pivot.&nbsp; And the pivot was a major one, with over a full percentage point in cuts priced in by January.&nbsp; Since then, however, the market then pivoted about the idea of an imminent pivot, with only a single cut priced in by the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the start of this week, as recently as Tuesday, Fed Funds futures were pricing near certainty for a 25 bp hike by July.&nbsp; But even then, traders were unsure of whether the hike might occur at the upcoming meeting (less than two weeks away) or the next.&nbsp; There was a 59% chance of a hike in June, but 99% for 25 bp by July.&nbsp; That led to the notion that the Fed\u2019s next step was to <em>skip <\/em>a hike at the next meeting, before a <em>pause <\/em>after July.&nbsp; Fed Governor Jefferson made <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2023-05-31\/fed-signal-for-rate-pause-takes-pressure-off-hot-jobs-report?sref=UQoV8r0O\">the following comment yesterday<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cSkipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming,\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At a separate meeting yesterday, the aforementioned Harker added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cI think we can take a bit of a skip for a meeting,\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With a <em>skip<\/em> seemingly entrenched as the Fed, let\u2019s break down the steps as we see them today.&nbsp; Fed Funds futures are currently pricing in about a \u00bc chance of a hike in June and a 2\/3 chance of a hike by late July.&nbsp; That of course is down substantially from the near certainty that was priced in as recently as Tuesday.&nbsp; Odds of a cut sometime in the December\/January timeframe rose somewhat, but still remain centered around a single cut around then.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The recent barrage of Fed talking heads is now coming to an end as they enter a quiet period ahead of the next meeting.&nbsp; It seems reasonable that the FOMC will continue to assert their vigilance against inflation that remains well above their 2% target, while recognizing that monetary operates with a meaningful lag.&nbsp; The final choreography remains in flux, but it appears that the next few steps are likely to be skip, hike, pause, pivot \u2013 even if the timing remains uncertain.&nbsp; Everybody on the dance floor!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An unsurprising confession: I\u2019ve never been a big fan of line dancing.  Yet the recent debate about the Federal Reserve\u2019s potential next moves struck me as the instructions to perhaps the world\u2019s lamest \u2013 but most critical \u2013 line dance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":184479,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[77,446,314],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-191290","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-fed","15":"tag-federal-reserve","16":"tag-fomc","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/02\/federal-reserve-system-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=191290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191290\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/184479"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=191290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=191290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=191290"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=191290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}