{"id":191048,"date":"2023-05-26T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=191048"},"modified":"2023-05-26T12:59:24","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T16:59:24","slug":"ai-is-worth-the-hype-if-everyone-believes-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/ai-is-worth-the-hype-if-everyone-believes-it\/","title":{"rendered":"AI is Worth the Hype if Everyone Believes It"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday\u2019s trading was <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-nvidias-world-were-just-living-and-investing-in-it\/\">all about Nvidia<\/a> (NVDA) and its eye-popping positive guidance about anticipated spending on artificial intelligence (AI).&nbsp;Today\u2019s winner, in a similar vein, is Marvell Technology (MRVL).&nbsp; They reported decent earnings per share (EPS) after yesterday\u2019s close, $0.31 on a non-GAAP basis, versus a $0.295 consensus<a id=\"_ednref1\" href=\"#_edn1\">[i]<\/a>, but also mentioned that they expect AI revenues to \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/investor.marvell.com\/2023-05-25-Marvell-Technology,-Inc-Reports-First-Quarter-of-Fiscal-Year-2024-Financial-Results\">at least double<\/a>\u201d in 2024.&nbsp; That\u2019s propelled MRVL +20% higher today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the contrarians and natural skeptics among us (including yours truly), it is understandable to question whether AI can live up to the hype that it\u2019s currently receiving.&nbsp; We won\u2019t know the answer for years.&nbsp; But in the meantime, it\u2019s irrelevant.&nbsp; Regardless of whether AI might prove to be earth-shattering, as long as companies are willing to spend money on AI-related technology, then the companies that supply that technology will benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is well known that the most likely way to profit from a gold rush is to supply the goods and services required by the hopeful miners.&nbsp; In February, on the day after NVDA\u2019s prior earnings report, <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/buzzword-day-nvidia-and-ai-fomc-and-disinflation\/\">we noted<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u2026many investors take a \u201cgold rush\u201d approach.&nbsp; During the California and Klondike gold rushes, selling supplies to prospectors was a safer and smarter to make money than the actual prospecting.&nbsp; It is quite reasonable to think of NVDA as selling picks and shovels, first to the cryptocurrency gold rush, now to the AI gold rush.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biography.com\/fashion-designer\/levi-strauss\">Levi Strauss<\/a>, founder of the eponymous company (LEVI) that still posts profits today, is the best-known example.&nbsp; Since then, we have seen several other gold rushes \u2013 literal and figurative \u2013 with some of the figurative ones taking place in the same California region that came to prominence in 1849.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NVDA benefitted tremendously from the recent rush into cryptocurrencies before stumbling and once again regaining its footing (and then some!).&nbsp; The verdict is still out about whether blockchain and cryptocurrencies will be a life-changing innovation, but we can look back at an innovation that did indeed prove to be life-changing \u2013 the internet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is hard to imagine life without the internet now.&nbsp; One can certainly assert that it indeed live up to the late \u201890s hype, even if the enthusiasm for related stocks proved to be wildly overblown.&nbsp;&nbsp; Earlier this week we outlined <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/lots-of-rhyming-history-out-there\/\">some of the parallels<\/a> between the internet craze and the current AI enthusiasm.&nbsp; We\u2019re far from the full-on mania that existed back then, but when we see companies benefit from simply announcing that they are considering AI investments \u2013 much as they did when they announced websites in the \u201890s \u2013 there are certainly echoes of that era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Because that era had its shares of flameouts, some of which seemed sketchy even then (Pets.com, anyone?), there were many who preferred to invest in the companies that would make up the backbone of the internet \u2013 that era\u2019s metaphorical picks and shovels.&nbsp; But those too proved to be susceptible to overvaluation as well.&nbsp; Two of the most prominent internet infrastructure companies of that era still trade today.&nbsp; One is Cisco (CSCO), the other is Akamai (AKAM).&nbsp; Both peaked in early 2000.&nbsp; CSCO finally topped its peak about 20 years later, while AKAM still has not:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-25-years-monthly-data-akam-white-csco-blue\"><strong><em>25+ Years, Monthly Data, AKAM (white), CSCO (blue)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"417\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-39.png\" alt=\"25+ Years, Monthly Data, AKAM (white), CSCO (blue)\" class=\"wp-image-191049 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-39.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-39-700x312.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-39-300x134.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-39-768x342.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/417;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Bloomberg<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oh wait, I almost forgot \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/videos\/riverview\/relatedvideo?&amp;q=%2benron+ad+%22waving+fields+of+bandwidth%22&amp;&amp;mid=C82872252CCE74E688D9C82872252CCE74E688D9&amp;&amp;FORM=VRDGAR\">Enron was also a huge player<\/a> in bandwidth back then.&nbsp; For obvious reasons, an up-to-date chart is unavailable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is indisputable that NVDA and MRVL, along with others, are benefiting from their role as key providers of chips that will drive AI expenditures.&nbsp; They have been phenomenal investments and are very hard to bet against right now.&nbsp; They can reasonably be considered to be continuing winners if AI remains a key investment thesis.&nbsp;&nbsp; Whether or not they are solid long-term investments remains an open question, however.&nbsp; NVDA and MRVL sport nothing like the premiums attributed to AKAM and CSCO at their peaks, but the latter stocks demonstrate that even during a virtual gold rush it is possible to overpay for the metaphorical picks and shovels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> MRVL reported that GAAP EPS was a net loss of -$0.20 on a diluted basis, but who\u2019s counting?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s winner, similar to NVDA, is Marvell Technology (MRVL). For the contrarians and natural skeptics among us (including yours truly), it is understandable to question whether AI can live up to the hype that it\u2019s currently receiving.\u00a0 We won\u2019t know the answer for years.\u00a0 But in the meantime, it\u2019s irrelevant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":184922,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[632,14545,912,267],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-191048","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-ai","tag-ai-stocks","tag-artificial-intelligence","tag-earnings","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>AI is Worth the Hype if Everyone Believes It<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s trading was all about Nvidia (NVDA) and its eye-popping positive guidance about anticipated spending on artificial intelligence (AI)....\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/191048\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"AI is Worth the Hype if Everyone Believes It | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yesterday\u2019s trading was all about Nvidia (NVDA) and its eye-popping positive guidance about anticipated spending on artificial intelligence (AI). 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