{"id":190759,"date":"2023-05-22T12:46:22","date_gmt":"2023-05-22T16:46:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=190759"},"modified":"2023-05-23T10:57:51","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T14:57:51","slug":"would-a-debt-ceiling-resolution-be-a-sell-the-news-event","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/would-a-debt-ceiling-resolution-be-a-sell-the-news-event\/","title":{"rendered":"Would a Debt Ceiling Resolution Be a &#8220;Sell-the-News&#8221; Event?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>We&#8217;ve all heard the phrase &#8220;buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news.&#8221;&nbsp;If you\u2019re an investor who hasn\u2019t, then shame on you.&nbsp;Of all the various old hoary market adages, this is perhaps the most reliable. The logic is sound; if a major piece of news has been discussed sufficiently to be fully discounted by investors, then it is unlikely that any incremental positives will follow. As a result, the affected stocks can fall \u2013 even if the news is good.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This could indeed apply to the outcome of the debt ceiling drama. On a quarter-to-date basis,&nbsp;<a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/pedaling-hard-going-nowhere\/\">equity markets moved largely sideways<\/a>&nbsp;as the debt drama escalated, then ratcheted higher in recent sessions as signs of progress emerged.&nbsp;Most recently, we saw only a very modest dip on Friday when negotiations broke down, and a modest rally this morning ahead of another meeting between President Biden and Speaker McCarthy.&nbsp;Let\u2019s see how it goes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is some real dissonance between the amount of discussion that is occurring about the effect of a potential debt crisis on equity markets and the generally blas\u00e9 nature of the markets themselves.&nbsp;I\u2019ve had several discussions with concerned investors, but they seem to be doing little in the way of moving into more defensive sectors or hedging with derivatives.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A discussion that I had this morning made me a bit more concerned that a debt ceiling resolution might not be friendly for stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;I was privileged to be part of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/video\/debt-ceiling-debacle-biden-mccarthy-133944977.html?.tsrc=fin-srch\">a discussion on Yahoo Finance<\/a>&nbsp;with Jeanette Lowe, a policy analyst at Strategas, about the topic.&nbsp;&nbsp;Ms. Lowe highlighted the idea that a lasting agreement would likely involve spending cuts, and reminded the viewer that markets fell after the resolution of the 2011 crisis because there were $2 trillion in cuts.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It occurred to me that fiscal policy contraction ahead of a potential recession was sort of Keynesian economics in reverse.\u00a0If we are concerned about a slowdown, then a fiscal bump would be a boon, while a fiscal cut would be an additional headwind \u2013 at least in the short-term.\u00a0Remember, expansionary fiscal and monetary policy were key factors for the booming markets of 2020-21.\u00a0We\u2019ve since gone into reverse on the monetary front \u2013 a 5% rate hike and continued quantitative tightening will do that \u2013 but stocks have been overcoming that headwind this year.\u00a0If a debt resolution results in tighter fiscal policies, it would create yet another hurdle for stocks and the economy.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The headwinds would be in the short- to medium-term, at least.&nbsp;A more stable fiscal framework could indeed be a long-term boon for the economy, and hence stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;But equity markets tend to discount a few quarters at a time, not years and decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As with all deals, the devil is in the details.&nbsp;If everyone is unhappy with the deal, then it probably means that it contains reasonable compromises from both sides.&nbsp;But if there is no incremental good news to be gained from an agreement and the deal itself is a short-term fiscal drag, then we could easily be looking at the latest in a long series of &#8220;buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news&#8221; events.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;ve all heard the phrase &#8220;buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news.&#8221; The logic is sound; if a major piece of news has been discussed sufficiently to be fully discounted by investors, then it is unlikely that any incremental positives will follow. As a result, the affected stocks can fall &#8211; even if the news is good. This could indeed apply to the outcome of the debt ceiling drama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":190762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,9,22,26,3],"tags":[10249,15300,1840,6466,12374,15324,4109,10476],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-190759","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-debt-ceiling","13":"tag-debt-crisis","14":"tag-equity-markets","15":"tag-fiscal-policy","16":"tag-market-commentary","17":"tag-speaker-mccarthy","18":"tag-stock-market","19":"tag-us-debt-ceiling","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Would a Debt Ceiling Resolution Be a &#8220;Sell-the-News&#8221; Event?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We\u2019ve all heard the phrase &quot;buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news.&quot;\u00a0The logic is sound; if a major piece of news has been discussed sufficiently to be fully...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190759\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Would a Debt Ceiling Resolution Be a &quot;Sell-the-News&quot; Event? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We\u2019ve all heard the phrase &quot;buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news.&quot;\u00a0The logic is sound; if a major piece of news has been discussed sufficiently to be fully discounted by investors, then it is unlikely that any incremental positives will follow. 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