{"id":190358,"date":"2023-05-15T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-15T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=190358"},"modified":"2023-05-15T13:01:21","modified_gmt":"2023-05-15T17:01:21","slug":"last-licks-for-earnings-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/last-licks-for-earnings-season\/","title":{"rendered":"Last Licks for Earnings Season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Today\u2019s title might be confusing for those of you who grew up outside North America.&nbsp; Last licks is a playground idiom meaning \u201cfinal turn\u201d or \u201clast opportunity\u201d, and it comes up in a variety of games.&nbsp; With major retailers like Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) reporting over the coming three days, we get a final chance to see whether the <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/pedaling-hard-going-nowhere\/\">stasis that has pervaded<\/a> much of this earnings season and current quarter overall will persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So far, 92% of S&amp;P 500 (SPX) companies have reported earnings for the quarter.&nbsp; In baseball terms, we\u2019re in the bottom of the ninth inning of a tie game.&nbsp; The retailers have a chance to break the tie.&nbsp; Based upon the solid results issued by a wide range of consumer stocks one might think that retailers should be in good shape.&nbsp; We learned that many important companies favored by consumers were able to <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/we-love-our-junk-food-and-are-willing-to-pay-up-for-it\/\">pass along higher prices<\/a> to their customers without penalty.&nbsp;&nbsp; The unemployment rate is only 3.4%, meaning that the vast majority of people who want a job have one.&nbsp; People who are employed can afford to buy what they\u2019d like, especially when average hourly earnings rose 0.5% last month.&nbsp; That\u2019s not good for an inflation-fighting Federal Reserve, but good for the companies themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;But the University of Michigan survey dealt us a real curveball on Friday.&nbsp; We described the results as \u201clousy\u201d in a piece <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/whos-the-marginal-buyer\/\">published that morning<\/a>, and that description holds up in hindsight as well.&nbsp; Sentiment was 57.7 vs. a prior 63.0 (and 63.5 consensus), Expectations were 53.4 vs a prior 60.8, 1-Year Inflation was 4.5% vs. 4.4% (though better than the 4.6% consensus), while 5-10 Year Inflation matched a 12-year high of 3.2% (vs. 2.9% prior and 3.0% expected).&nbsp; There is no way to sugarcoat those numbers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bearing in mind that the consumer stocks\u2019 quarter ended on March 31<sup>st<\/sup> and the retailers ended on April 30<sup>th<\/sup>, we will get an important glimpse into whether key retailers felt a decline in sentiment over that timeframe.&nbsp; It is one thing for people to express negative sentiment in a survey, another for them to express it at a store\u2019s cash register.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Has TGT fully fixed its inventory problems?&nbsp; Are consumers downshifting from TGT to WMT?&nbsp; Are higher rates affecting the housing cycle sufficiently to cool spending at HD and Lowes (LOW)?&nbsp; We\u2019ll know soon enough whether retailers\u2019 last licks sink or save the relative tie game of first quarter earnings.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With major retailers like Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) reporting over the coming three days, we get a final chance to see whether the stasis that has pervaded much of this earnings season and current quarter overall will persist.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":184228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[14466,267,4109],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-190358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-earning-season","tag-earnings","tag-stock-market","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Last Licks for Earnings Season | 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