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The pivotal piece of data in the May 15 week should be the release of retail and food services sales for April at 8:30 ET on Tuesday. As the earliest data for the second quarter 2023 comes in, it will be assessed to see if growth has picked up after the 1.1 percent increase in the first quarter \u2013 which included stronger-than-expected personal consumption expenditures although overall it was below forecast. The April employment report showed payrolls and wages are still rising, although at a somewhat slower pace. This could mean that households will be more inclined to shop and get out for travel and leisure activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Early April could have seen an uptick in spending associated with the Passover and Easter observance period, although that seems to have faded quickly, at least for in-person shopping. It is possible that shopping online was strong. The increase in the pace of motor vehicle sales in April to 15.9 million units at an annualized rate compared to 14.8 million in March points to a likely boost for this category. Prices for gasoline were on the rise in April and only eased late in the month. The April average for regular gas was $3.603 per gallon compared to $3.422 in March. However, seasonal adjustment factors should take this into account as April prices typically rise in the changeover period to summer fuel formulations that have a deadline of May 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The modest improvement in conditions in the housing market that have accompanied a dip in mortgage rates may also help retail sales in categories like building materials or furniture and appliances. Current homeowners are generally inclined to do some repairs and upgrades of home and home furnishings when the weather is warmer. Note this report will include annual revisions released on April 24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n