{"id":190300,"date":"2023-05-15T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-15T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=190300"},"modified":"2023-05-15T09:47:01","modified_gmt":"2023-05-15T13:47:01","slug":"first-step-should-be-incrementally-positive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/first-step-should-be-incrementally-positive\/","title":{"rendered":"First Step Should Be Incrementally Positive"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The bulls are slated to have first-mover advantage to begin the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are up nine points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 31 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 61 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This positive bias is an offshoot of several influences:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The People&#8217;s Bank of China added some liquidity by rolling over CNY125 billion of maturing medium-term loans<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The EU Commission raised its 2023 growth forecast to 1.1% from 0.9% and its 2024 growth forecast to 1.6% from 1.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>NEC Director Lael Brainard said debt ceiling discussions have been productive; meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Yellen said both sides have found some areas of agreement, according to&nbsp;<em>CBS News<\/em><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Several M&amp;A deals have been announced, highlighted by&nbsp;<strong>Newmont&#8217;s (NEM)&nbsp;<\/strong>approximately $19 billion cash-and-stock deal to acquire Newcrest and&nbsp;<strong>Onoeok&#8217;s (OKE)&nbsp;<\/strong>approximately $18.8 billion deal, including assumed debt, to acquire Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Positive price action in Asian and European equity markets has set a constructive tone ahead of the U.S. open, which will feature some buy-the-dip action coming off last week&#8217;s modest losses. Nonetheless, it won&#8217;t be an aggressive bid at the open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>An ugly New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for May tamped down some of the stronger enthusiasm seen earlier. The ugliness came in the headline print of -31.8 (Briefing.com consensus -1.8) versus 10.8 in April. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this survey is 0.0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key takeaway from the survey is that the new orders index sank 53 points to -28.0, underscoring a sharp drop off in demand in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Granted this is a lower-tier report, yet this is the the type of data that should give the Fed some pause about raising rates further. Both Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-FOMC voter) and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC voter) suggested to&nbsp;<em>CNBC<\/em>&nbsp;this morning that it is prudent now to take a wait-and-see stance on policy. Mr. Bostic added, though, that rate cuts are not part of his baseline forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There will be more data this week, including the Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Existing Home Sales reports for May, that will factor into the Fed&#8217;s thinking. Separately, we will also hear several retailers, including&nbsp;<strong>Home Depot (HD), Target, (TGT)<\/strong>, and&nbsp;<strong>Walmart (WMT)<\/strong>, report their quarterly earnings results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Debt ceiling discussions &#8212; or at least reports about debt ceiling discussions &#8212; are apt to feature prominently this week as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted May 15, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">First step should be incrementally positive<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bulls are slated to have first-mover advantage to begin the week. This positive bias is an offshoot of several influences:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[169,1685,14020,44],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-190300","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-futures","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-futures","15":"tag-macro","16":"tag-market-brief","17":"tag-stocks","18":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>First Step Should Be Incrementally Positive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The bulls are slated to have first-mover advantage to begin the week. This positive bias is an offshoot of several influences:\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190300\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"First Step Should Be Incrementally Positive | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The bulls are slated to have first-mover advantage to begin the week. This positive bias is an offshoot of several influences:\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/first-step-should-be-incrementally-positive\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-15T13:45:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-05-15T13:47:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Patrick J. 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