{"id":190223,"date":"2023-05-11T12:50:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-11T16:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=190223"},"modified":"2023-05-11T14:06:11","modified_gmt":"2023-05-11T18:06:11","slug":"pedaling-hard-going-nowhere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/pedaling-hard-going-nowhere\/","title":{"rendered":"Pedaling Hard, Going Nowhere"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today\u2019s news about Peloton (PTON) gave me the proper mental image to define the market\u2019s recent activity.&nbsp; No, it\u2019s not that the stock is down about 7% <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/peloton-declines-recall-2-2-135359584.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall\">after recalling 2.2 million bikes<\/a>, it\u2019s that the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) has gone largely nowhere for the quarter-to-date &#8212; over a month &#8212; despite the hard work put in by traders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SPX ended the month of March at 4,109.31 after a 1.44% jump on the last day of the quarter.&nbsp; As we type this at 11AM EDT, SPX is at 4,122.40.&nbsp; That\u2019s a hardly robust 0.32% gain in just under six weeks.&nbsp; With megacap tech stocks leading the way, thanks in part to enthusiasm about the promise of artificial intelligence (AI), we expected some outperformance from the NASDAQ 100 Index (NDX).&nbsp; That was indeed the case, but in a barely meaningful way.&nbsp; Over that period, NDX rose from 13,181.35 to a current 13,362.19, a gain of 1.4%.&nbsp; Furthermore, as the graph below shows, much of NDX\u2019s outperformance has come in the past week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-quarter-to-date-chart-spx-red-green-hourly-bars-ndx-blue-line-with-horizontal-line-at-prior-quarter-s-close\"><strong><em>Quarter-to-Date Chart, SPX (red\/green hourly bars), NDX (blue line), with Horizontal Line at Prior Quarter\u2019s Close<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"579\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture2-6.png\" alt=\"Quarter-to-Date Chart, SPX (red\/green hourly bars), NDX (blue line), with Horizontal Line at Prior Quarter\u2019s Close\" class=\"wp-image-190225 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture2-6.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture2-6-700x433.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture2-6-300x186.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture2-6-768x475.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/579;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we can see above, it\u2019s not as though the ranges have been particularly wide either.&nbsp; SPX\u2019s high for the quarter, which was touched on the first of this month, was 4,186.92.&nbsp; The low, which was reached three days later, was 4,048.28, meaning the range for the quarter (and month) is about 3.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bearing that in mind, it is hardly surprising that the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is mired in the high teens.&nbsp; We have noted that VIX seems relatively sanguine, seemingly mired at relatively low levels, even as concerns about a default stemming from the debt ceiling could come to a head during the 23-37 day period measured by VIX.&nbsp; But <a href=\"\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/making-sense-of-the-three-types-of-volatility\/\">volatility traders frequently use the past<\/a> as prologue, and historical volatilities give traders little reason to bid aggressively for protection right now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Implied volatility for one-month at-money SPX options is currently in the 14-15 range.&nbsp; That is in line with the 100-day historical volatility, and well above the levels of 30-day and 10-day historical volatility, which measure 10.3% and 11.5% respectively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><em>SPX Volatilities, Implied (white, right scale), 10-Day (yellow, right), 30-Day (orange, right), 100-Day Historical (magenta, right), vs. SPX (light gray, left)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"549\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-17.png\" alt=\"SPX Volatilities, Implied (white, right scale), 10-Day (yellow, right), 30-Day (orange, right), 100-Day Historical (magenta, right), vs. SPX (light gray, left)\" class=\"wp-image-190224 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-17.png 936w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-17-700x411.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-17-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Picture1-17-768x450.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 936px; aspect-ratio: 936\/549;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The bottom line is this: despite the relatively low levels of VIX and SPX implied volatility, traders are actually pricing in some modest risk aversion.&nbsp; Whether or not this seems appropriate depends upon your perception of future events.&nbsp; If you\u2019re concerned that the debt ceiling stalemate will lead to increased volatility, then it is reasonable to think that SPX implied volatility is on the low side.&nbsp; The same is true if you expect the proverbial \u201csell in May\u201d to kick in soon.&nbsp; However, if you believe that we will remain mired in the tight range that has prevailed so far this quarter, then VIX and SPX implied volatility seems expensive.&nbsp; Calibrate your expectations accordingly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s news about Peloton (PTON) gave me the proper mental image to define the market\u2019s recent activity. The S&#038;P 500 has been mostly pedaling in place this quarter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":190226,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1926,1461,207,317],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-190223","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-options","15":"tag-peloton","16":"tag-spx","17":"tag-vix","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/biking-bike-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190223","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=190223"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/190223\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/190226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=190223"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=190223"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=190223"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=190223"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}