{"id":190063,"date":"2023-05-09T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-09T14:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=190063"},"modified":"2023-05-09T10:35:11","modified_gmt":"2023-05-09T14:35:11","slug":"defense-wins-championships","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/defense-wins-championships\/","title":{"rendered":"Defense Wins Championships"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/advisors\/insights\/category\/weekly-commentary\/\">Weekly Commentary<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-recap\">Market Recap<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Equity markets endured the FOMC announcement, some key economic data, debt ceiling concerns and ongoing trouble in the U.S. regional bank sector\u2014just another week in the office. The S&amp;P 500 ultimately finished down a modest 0.8%, but not without some meaningful swings. Banks were hit hard, down 4.6% on the week, with some regional names under intense pressure. Defensive sectors\u2014see health care and utilities\u2014held at the top of the pack along with technology.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It\u2019s also noteworthy that the rangebound S&amp;P 500 has mainly been propped up by the large heavyweights, many of which are in tech or communications services, and have seen valuations benefit from the prospect of a Fed pause.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In fact, the S&amp;P 100 large cap sector is up 2.6% over the past three months, masking an 11% slide in the smaller and broader Russell 2000. Meantime, the TSX gave back 0.5% on the week, with weakness in energy and health care weighing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-interest-rates\">Interest Rates<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, as we\u2019d expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points. But it was Fed Chairman Jerome Powell\u2019s remarks afterward that prompted much debate\u2014while he emphasized that \u201ca decision on a pause was not made,\u201d many observers nonetheless interpreted the Fed\u2019s actions as such. This sentiment was compounded by the removal of a line from the previous decision\u2019s post-meeting statement, which had said that \u201cthe Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate\u201d to combat inflation1; this time around, the statement merely mentions \u201cdetermining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate\u201d without saying that it anticipates such moves2. The result? Some investors are once again expecting interest rate cuts this year. Even before the Fed\u2019s announcement, people had lined up into two camps: the doves, who were asking, \u201cdo we really need more rate hikes?\u201d, and the hawks, whose question was, \u201chow many more do we need?\u201d Our evaluation is that a rate cut in 2023 remains very unlikely and that this may very well be the last one. It\u2019s the uncertainty that gives some investors a license for optimism\u2014but it\u2019s also worth keeping in mind that if the Fed had announced a pause, that likely would have made markets nervous too \u2013 especially given the recent bank situations and tighter credit markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>Despite a possible rate-hiking pause by the Fed, a rate cut this year remains unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-banks\">Banks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The First Republic Bank saga is in the books, with news breaking last Monday that JPMorgan had purchased the majority of the bank\u2019s assets after it had collapsed and been seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). We characterized the situation as a company-specific crisis, which we still believe. But despite assurances from the government and others that the U.S. regional banking system is stable and sound, news that another regional bank, PacWest, is now in trouble has raised additional concerns. What this latest development highlights is that the regional banking system is still delicate. Since the beginning of the crisis with Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), there\u2019s been skepticism about the perceived \u201cweakest\u201d regional bank\u2014first it was SVB, then it was Signature Bank and First Republic, and now it\u2019s PacWest. Outflows from those banks have had to go somewhere, and that\u2019s what\u2019s driving ongoing uncertainty. We wouldn\u2019t be surprised if more regional banks get nervous and pre-emptively consider acquisitions, which is what PacWest appears to be doing. The good news is that each time a bank is saved, the regulators are able to scale back their protections, and uncertainty\u2014and therefore instability\u2014diminishes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:&nbsp;<\/strong>There will always be a \u201cweakest\u201d regional bank, but the threat of a broader banking crisis is likely to remain low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-oil\">Oil<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Recently, oil markets have been somewhat more volatile than usual, prompting speculation about where crude prices may be headed. Our team deserves a pat on the back for their accurate assessment of the situation\u2014earlier in the year, we had opened a covered call position in Energy collecting premiums as oil stayed range-bound and then eventually took our profits by selling our tactical position when OPEC cut production and prices soared. In general, we still like oil, but not under the current environment and at current prices, which are around $70 per barrel for WTI Crude. The $60-per-barrel range would be attractive, but only if and when we get more certainty on the macroeconomic picture. In that regard, there are a couple of developments we\u2019ll be watching closely. The first is China\u2019s economic reopening\u2014if it goes smoothly, that could provide a serious boost to oil demand. And the second is the possibility of a recession, which could prompt a slump in energy demand. As long as there are open questions on those fronts, it will be difficult to predict when oil prices will go up strongly again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line:<\/strong>&nbsp;We\u2019ll need more clarity on macroeconomic questions and the timing of a possible recession before we\u2019ll be confident jumping back into oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-positioning\">Positioning<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As Toronto Maple Leafs fans will surely tell you, reliable defense is a necessity if you want to win. After several months of staying balanced, we now believe that it\u2019s time for defensive positioning in our portfolios. As previously mentioned, many investors are clearly misunderstanding the Fed, remaining unjustifiably optimistic about the potential for interest rate cuts. This leaves room for a downside surprise in markets. The decision we\u2019re now faced with is between selling some equities or adding covered calls to collect income from premiums\u2014for instance, on our Industrials position. We\u2019ll continue to evaluate those options going forward. Overall, Quality is staying on top. And regionally, there\u2019s the question of China\u2014when will be the right time to pare back our position? Those are the questions we\u2019ll be asking ourselves in the coming weeks, and as always, we\u2019ll adjust our positioning as warranted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/bmogamhub.com\/system\/files\/5_lenses_sales_aid_-_english.pdf?file=1&amp;type=node&amp;id=108448\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BMO\u2019S \u201cFIVE LENSES\u201d STRATEGY<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posed May 8, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/advisors\/insights\/weekly-commentary-may-8-2023-defense-wins-championships\/\">Defense Wins Championships<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Equity markets endured the FOMC announcement, some key economic data, debt ceiling concerns and ongoing trouble in the U.S. regional bank sector\u2014just another week in the office.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":919,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[246,1056,850,12374],"contributors-categories":[13733],"class_list":{"0":"post-190063","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-banks","13":"tag-crude-oil","14":"tag-interest-rates","15":"tag-market-commentary","16":"contributors-categories-bmo-exchange-traded-funds"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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