{"id":189962,"date":"2023-05-08T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189962"},"modified":"2023-05-08T10:26:44","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T14:26:44","slug":"weekly-market-recap-may-8-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-may-8-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: May 8, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Fed hiked rates by 0.25% to a range of 5.00-5.25%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>March job openings fell to 9.6M from 10.0M<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nonfarm payrolls rose to 253K, unemployment fell to 3.4%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>CPI<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prelim. consumer sentiment<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Import prices<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered what many expect to be the last rate hike of this cycle, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 5.00-5.25%. With the Fed now potentially on pause, at least for a while, investors are shifting their focus away from the risk of further Fed tightening and towards the risk of recession, as the fallout from the regional banking crisis casts a shadow on the economic outlook. Recent data have shown a loss of economic momentum, with declining job openings, tightening lending conditions and surveys indicating lower business spending and hiring plans. Yet, despite expectations for a slowdown, the April Jobs report showed better-than-expected payroll gains, a decrease in unemployment and an uptick in wage growth. The report overall was strong, though large downward revisions to the prior two months added a layer of softness to the recent trend. Still, while layoff announcements and unemployment claims have been rising in recent months, excess demand for workers has seemingly been enough to absorb those layoffs so far and keep unemployment at bay. Wage growth continues to be too high for the Fed\u2019s comfort, but while wages may have bounced last month, compared to a year ago they are still steadily declining, as shown in the chart. Moreover, as the worsening economic outlook induces businesses to cut back on spending and hold off on hiring plans, it\u2019s difficult to imagine wage growth can increase sustainably from here. Because of this, and the expected toll that credit tightening will have on growth in the coming months, we still expect the Fed to stay on pause in June and potentially pivot to easing monetary policy in response to recession later this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"430\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-083937-1100x430.png\" alt=\"wage growth has been steadily falling since April 2022\" class=\"wp-image-189963 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-083937-1100x430.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-083937-700x273.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-083937-300x117.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-083937-768x300.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-083937.png 1262w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/430;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"597\" height=\"67\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-084026.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189964 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-084026.png 597w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-08-084026-300x34.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 597px) 100vw, 597px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 597px; aspect-ratio: 597\/67;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted May 8, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., May 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of May 8, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Despite expectations for a slowdown, the April Jobs report showed better-than-expected payroll gains, a decrease in unemployment and an uptick in wage growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":189963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[6014,2298,12507],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-189962","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-macroeconomics","14":"tag-market-recap","15":"tag-wage-growth","16":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ 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