{"id":189823,"date":"2023-05-04T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189823"},"modified":"2023-05-04T12:37:51","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T16:37:51","slug":"apple-q2-earnings-why-analysts-expect-iphone-makers-stock-to-hold-up-even-if-guidance-falls-flat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/apple-q2-earnings-why-analysts-expect-iphone-makers-stock-to-hold-up-even-if-guidance-falls-flat\/","title":{"rendered":"Apple Q2 Earnings: Why Analysts Expect iPhone Maker&#8217;s Stock To Hold Up Even If Guidance Falls Flat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After a strong FAANG earnings season, investors look ahead to Apple to tow in line.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The company is due to report Thursday after the close.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Apple&#8217;s AI focus and shift in investment case to consumer staple should support a higher valuation, Munster says.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Apple, Inc.<\/strong>&nbsp;is the last&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/news\/earnings\/23\/04\/32021852\/meta-platforms-q1-earnings-highlights-revenue-and-eps-beat-ads-delivered-rise-26-ai-spending-update\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">among the FAANGs to report its March quarter results.<\/a>&nbsp;The results are important because they could confirm or question the strength of quarterly reports from other big techs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Q2 Expectations:<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Street revenue estimate of $92.96 would mark a 4.4% drop from the year-ago quarter&#8217;s $97.28 billion and a 20.7% decline from the first quarter&#8217;s $117.2 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It has to be noted here that the second quarter is one of Apple&#8217;s seasonally slow quarters, coming right after the holiday-selling period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a recent note, Morgan Stanley analyst&nbsp;<strong>Erik Woodring<\/strong>&nbsp;said that he expects in-line March quarter results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Citing continued uncertainty, Apple refrained from giving revenue guidance for the second quarter. CFO&nbsp;<strong>Lucas Maestri<\/strong>&nbsp;said on the first-quarter earnings calls that the company expects revenue performance similar to the December quarter and forex to continue to be a headwind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Woodring said he expects Apple to announce a $90 billion incremental buyback authorization and a 5% year-over-year increase in dividends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Business Segments:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>iPhone revenue is likely to come in line or slightly higher than estimates, most analysts say. Wedbush&#8217;s&nbsp;<strong>Daniel Ives&nbsp;<\/strong>said&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/23\/05\/32149995\/apple-q2-earnings-analyst-lists-2-reasons-why-iphone-makers-revenue-will-meet-wall-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">he sees some upside in iPhone shipments,<\/a>&nbsp;thanks to a clear uptick in demand in China. Higher average selling prices and overall upgrade activity should help, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ives estimates ASPs of around $900-$925 for the quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Woodring expects iPhone revenue of $50.3 billion, with shipments at 54.5 million and ASPs at $922 due to a strong high-end mix. This should help offset the effect of some discounting in the international markets, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Morgan Stanley analyst recently trimmed his Mac shipment forecast from 4.8 million units to 4.3 million units, consequently taking down the product\u2019s revenue estimate by 10% to $6.3&nbsp; billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Woodring expects Services revenue to come in at $20.9&nbsp; billion, up 5.7% year-over-year and 20 basis points above the consensus. Ives forecasts stable Services revenue due to an uptick in App Store revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deepwater Asset Management&#8217;s&nbsp;<strong>Gene Munster&nbsp;<\/strong>said investors are also likely to focus on the active installed base, which rose 8% year-over-year to over 2 billion in the first quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cA growing base means the Apple product flywheel is working,\u201d Munster said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>June Quarter Could Be Soft:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Morgan Stanley&#8217;s Woodring expects June quarter revenue of $80.3 billion, marking a 3% year-over-year decline. This is below the consensus estimate of $84.71 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He premised his expectation on 41 million units of iPhone shipment and a $901 ASP and lower Mac, iPad and Services revenue. The variance of June quarter revenue vis-\u00e0-vis consensus is primarily due to Woodring\u2019s softer iPhone revenue forecast at $37.2 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Build strength in April and May could weaken as the trough of the iPhone 14 cycle approaches, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Morgan Stanley, however, expects a better-than-consensus gross margin forecast for the quarter due to more favorable forex comparisons and further operational expenditure discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Apple Stock:&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Apple shares have gained 29.1% in the year-to-date period, outperforming the S&amp;P 500 Index, which added 6.5% during the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Woodring noted that a March quarter beat and June quarter guide down have not historically produced a negative post-earnings stock reaction. Investors typically look past the trough of the cycle to the upcoming iPhone launch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Munster said Apple&#8217;s investment case will likely shift to a consumer staples company that should yield a higher multiple. &#8220;On top of that, Apple is making meaningful progress in AI, a dynamic that is under-appreciated by investors,&#8221; he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average analysts&#8217; price target for Apple stock, according to TipRanks, is $177.23%, suggesting a roughly 6% upside from current levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/premarket\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">In premarket trading&nbsp;<\/a>on Thursday, Apple shares fell 1.06% to $165.67, according to&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/benzinga.grsm.io\/register174\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Benzinga Pro data.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted May 4, 2023 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/analyst-ratings\/analyst-color\/23\/05\/32206629\/apple-q2-earnings-why-analysts-expect-iphone-makers-stock-to-hold-up-even-if-guidan\">Apple Q2 Earnings: Why Analysts Expect iPhone Maker&#8217;s Stock To Hold Up Even If Guidance Falls Flat<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a strong FAANG earnings season, investors look ahead to Apple to tow in line.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[264,267,466],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-189823","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-north-america","7":"category-region","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-apple","13":"tag-earnings","14":"tag-faang","15":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Apple Q2 Earnings: Why Analysts Expect iPhone Maker&#8217;s Stock To 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