{"id":189572,"date":"2023-05-01T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-01T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=189572"},"modified":"2023-05-01T09:49:03","modified_gmt":"2023-05-01T13:49:03","slug":"weekly-market-recap-may-1-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-may-1-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: May 1, 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumer confidence fell to 101.3<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Prelim. 1Q23 GDP came in below consensus at 1.1%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Headline\/Core PCE: 4.2%\/4.6% y\/y<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>JOLTS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Mfg. and services PMIs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Employment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>At the March meeting, 17 out of 18 FOMC participants believed the federal funds rate needs to be 25bps higher at the end of 2023 than its current target range of 4.75% to 5.00%. Going into this week\u2019s meeting, the question is whether enough has changed over the last six weeks to convince a sufficient share of voting members to change their mind. Following early March\u2019s regional bank stress, equity and bond market volatility has eased, while investors have gone from pricing in a 21% probability of a 25bps rate increase in May on March 13 to an 85% probability today. Economic data have been mixed, but the picture still broadly shows a resilient U.S. economy. Last week, 1Q GDP growth came in below consensus at a 1.1% annualized rate, with a sharp decline in inventory accumulation, continued contraction in housing and slowing business fixed investment, but strong 3.7% consumption growth. April\u2019s business surveys continue to show a divergence between weakness in manufacturing and strength in services. Turning to the labor market, March\u2019s jobs report showed job creation slowing but to a still strong 236,000, with ongoing moderation in wage growth for all workers to 4.2% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the Fed\u2019s main inflation target, the headline PCE deflator, retreated to a year-over-year rate of 4.2% in March, down from a peak of 7.0% year-over-year last June. Still, with market volatility subsiding, real economic growth resilient and wages and inflation still elevated, it seems likely the Fed will deliver another 25bps hike this week. The question now is whether this will be the last one, and more importantly, when rate cuts might begin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"435\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084346-1100x435.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189573 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084346-1100x435.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084346-700x277.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084346-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084346-768x304.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084346.png 1276w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/435;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"586\" height=\"107\" data-src=\"\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084415.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-189574 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084415.png 586w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2023\/05\/Screenshot-2023-05-01-084415-300x55.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 586px) 100vw, 586px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 586px; aspect-ratio: 586\/107;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted May 1, 2023 \u2013&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2022 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., May 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of May 1, 2023 or as of most recently available<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With market volatility subsiding, real economic growth resilient, and wages and inflation still elevated, it seems likely the Fed will deliver another 25bps hike this week.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":189573,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[2298],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-189572","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-market-recap","14":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: May 1, 2023 | Traders&#039; 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